Stephen Collins: Andy Burnham has a mission. Now he needs a mandate to deliver it

Andy Burnham’s openness to the United Kingdom rejoining the European Union is a signal of a leader with a mission. His bold declaration at his party conference this week that he will tackle some of the biggest issues facing the UK, including a return to the EU and the introduction of proportional representation, shows a determination to be a prime minister of consequence.On the domestic front, he has faced up to the unsustainable pension triple-lock, which is providing locked-in benefits to beneficiaries at the expense of the young, but he also committed his government to a fair system of care for older people from the extra funds that become available. There was one crucial caveat about all these commitments. He will not attempt to implement them until after the next election in the UK as they were not included in the election manifesto on which Labour won power two years ago.Given that the next election does not have to be held for another three years, there have been widespread accusations in the Tory press that they represent empty promises. However, given the scale of Burnham’s ambition, it might equally herald an early election to win a mandate for his agenda.READ MOREAfter just two months in office, Burnham has established himself as the most dynamic prime minister since Tony Blair. And if he manages to deliver on his agenda, he may go down in history as the most consequential Labour prime minister since Clement Attlee.His announcement that he will look at whether to seek a customs union with the EU, rejoin the single market or “go all the way” back to full membership represents the biggest shift in British government thinking since the referendum decision to leave 10 years ago.Burnham’s admission that Brexit has “done more harm than good” was an indication of his favoured direction of travel. His comments were welcomed by French president Emmanuel Macron, who described it as “excellent news”, and by Spanish prime minister Pedro Sánchez, who said the UK would be welcomed back with “open arms”.The Government here will do everything it can to facilitate the UK if Burnham sets out on the return journey. While Brexit has not been nearly as damaging to Ireland as the doom-mongers forecast a decade ago, the return of a powerful ally on most major issues and the positive impact on British/Irish relations of close official contacts would be of huge benefit to this country. Given his party’s election pledge in 2024 not to reopen the Brexit issue, Burnham will need to get an electoral mandate if he really does intend to lead his country back into the EU. It is another reason he might just be tempted to call an early election while he is still basking in the glow of public approval.That approval has seen Labour bounce back in the opinion polls and put a sizeable dent in the support for Nigel Farage and his Reform UK party, which had streaked into a substantial lead 12 months ago. There was a lot of idle talk, fanned by the Tory-supporting media, about Farage being on his way to Downing Street. It was reminiscent of the media consensus here a few years ago that Mary Lou McDonald would inevitably lead Sinn Féin into government.Reform UK’s steep decline since Burnham’s accession has similarities with Sinn Féin’s descent from its opinion poll heights. The straight vote system in the UK could make that decline precipitous in terms of the number of seats Reform UK might win at the next election.Veteran British political commentator Peter Kellner, who is a shrewd interpreter of opinion polls and voting habits, has calculated that on the basis of the latest polls, and the intention of a majority to engage in tactical voting, Reform could win as few as 11 seats with a little over 20 per cent of the vote.In this scenario, Labour would win around 290 seats – and while that would not be an overall majority, it would pave the way for a coalition government with the Liberal Democrats on around 70 seats. A Labour/Lib Dem coalition would be the ideal vehicle to carry through one of Burnham’s other game-changing reforms: the introduction of proportional representation (PR).The straight vote system in the UK has produced ever stranger election results in recent years. Under Keir Starmer’s leadership, in 2024 Labour managed to win two-thirds of the seats with a third of the votes. In an increasingly fractured political world it would enable Reform UK to win an overall majority with just over a third of the vote next time out. All the polls indicate a majority of the British public do not want Reform UK in government in any circumstances, hence the focus on tactical voting. Changing the system completely with the introduction of PR would potentially give Reform UK a significant number of seats, but would ensure that it could be kept out of government by co-operation among other parties.Burnham has a long way to go to deliver on his ambitions, but he has already reinvigorated British politics after a decade of disasters.