State’s ability to defend itself compromised by lack of security strategy, says Defence Forces

The absence of a national security strategy leaves the State at “high” risk of mounting an “incoherent” defence of its sovereignty and territory in the event of an attack, according to the Defence Forces.The warning is included in confidential Defence Forces assessments intended to highlight potential threats to national security.It comes at a time of heightened security concerns across the EU and an increase in suspected hybrid attacks from hostile states. Leaders across the bloc have been warning of the need to prepare for potential attacks in the short to medium term.Ireland has never had a single national security strategy laying out the main risks to the State and how they should be countered. A strategy was due to be completed in 2021 but has been repeatedly delayed.READ MOREIn its assessment, the Defence Forces said the absence of a national security strategy would result in an “incoherent military defence of the State’s sovereignty and territorial integrity”. It classified the risk level as “high”.The assessment is intended for internal military planning, but it is available to Government officials.“It doesn’t mean the Army thinks we will be invaded tomorrow,” said a Government source familiar with the document. “But in the event of a large or small attack, the worry is there is no overarching strategy to guide the response.”They added the document is designed to assess the risk of high-impact but low-probability incidents.The national security strategy was being drafted by the National Security Analysis Centre, part of the Department of the Taoiseach before it was folded into the National Security Secretariat last year.[ ‘Almost daily’ cyberattacks are ‘very, very worrying’, warns TaoiseachOpens in new window ]The secretariat has now taken over drafting the strategy, which is expected to address areas such as hybrid attacks, cyber warfare and terrorism, as well as conventional military threats.The Department of Defence referred questions to the Department of the Taoiseach, which said work is ongoing to finalise the national security strategy.“It will include also the implications of recent security, defence and international developments and their related impacts, notably the deteriorating security situation in Europe given Russia’s ongoing, illegal war in Ukraine,” it added.Other warnings in the confidential documents include qualified cybersecurity personnel leaving the Defence Forces due to higher wages in the private sector and a lack of available funding for military operations.Many EU countries, including Ireland, have recently advised citizens to stock up on food and essentials in the event of crisis.[ What should we read into the Government’s failure to deliver a booklet?Opens in new window ]Poland’s prime minister, Donald Tusk, said recently that Russia may launch an attack on a Nato territory in the coming months to undermine the alliance, a view endorsed by French president Emmanuel Macron.The UK’s defence secretary, Wes Streeting, said last month his country must be ready for war with its adversaries within 1,000 days, and warned citizens to stock up on tinned food and bottles of water.Some security experts have also blamed state actors for cyberattacks which disabled supermarket fridges across Europe this week, including in Ireland, and for a co-ordinated series of bomb threats which impacted seven commercial flights. However, no culprit has been officially identified in either incident.“The [Defence Forces] feels that, when it comes to the most severe threats to the country, they don’t have enough centralised control, guidance and prioritisation,” said Ed Burke, UCD assistant professor in the history of war.He said the delay in the publication of a strategy was a symptom of neglect shown by successive governments of their “day-to-day role as custodians of the State’s security”.