Springboks v All Blacks in Baltimore: Five factors to determine outcome of fourth Test

These five factors will be key in who comes out on top in the final Test. It’s the fourth and final Test of Rugby’s Greatest Rivalry series between the Springboks and All Blacks. It takes place at the M&T Bank Stadium in Baltimore on Saturday, with kick-off at 11.10pm (SA time). Here are the five things to look out for in a match that will determine the final series result. Neutral ground The good news, if one can call it that, is that the M&T Bank Stadium in Baltimore is unknown to both teams, so no one side will be favoured. It is the first time a rugby match is being staged at the 70,000-capacity venue. But who will adapt best, and quickest, to the surface, which will be different to what the teams encountered in South Africa over the last few weeks, and how, if at all, will the players respond to the support, or not, that they’ll get from the fans? It’ll be a very new experience for all the players, and coaches, on Saturday. ‘Final’ pressure The Springboks are 2-1 up in the series and cannot lose it, but that does not mean they won’t be feeling any pressure. They’re certainly not want to slip up now at the final hurdle, after fighting back from losing the first Test. A 3-1 series win would be huge for the Boks’ confidence, especially knowing they’re set to face the All Blacks in next year’s World Cup quarter-finals. At the same time, the All Blacks must win the game to draw the series, so they really have it all to do, and need to make the play, so to speak. How will they perform under that pressure? Game plans The styles and game plans adopted by the teams so far have been very different, which was expected. The Boks have backed their scrums and set-pieces, with the forwards dominant in laying the foundation for their game, while the All Blacks have, as always, used their backs more regularly. Both styles have worked well for the teams, but with so much on the line this weekend, will they make any changes to how they go about their business? It’s unlikely; the Boks will probably still look to dominate up front and the All Blacks look to run the Boks off their feet. Whose game plan will come out on top this week? Scrums … again Following on from the above point, the scrums have been the biggest talking point of the series and will be a key factor in Baltimore as well. The big question though is, how will referee Karl Dickson see things, and will he reward strength and power or will he find fault and penalise the Boks for infringing, according to All Blacks boss Dave Rennie? Every referee in the series so far – Matthew Carly, Angus Gardner and Nika Amushukeli – has blown the scrum differently. It’s certainly going to be riveting viewing once again and is sure to play a big part in who gets on top, and who possibly wins the match after 80 minutes. Fatigue The biggest factor though this weekend is surely fatigue. Some players go into this fourth Test having played in all three previous Tests, and some for the full 80 minutes. There’s no doubt there are sore and tired bodies, and some minds might also be wandering. This series has been physically and mentally draining for the players and the coaches. And add in a flight to the USA and different time zones and the challenge for both teams gets even bigger. So, whoever has the most energy left, in body and mind, will probably deal with the 80 minutes better. What a fascinating contest awaits.