Spluttering economy, ballooning welfare, defence blackhole & immigration fury… new PM Burnham faces in-tray from hell

ANDY Burnham becomes PM at a precarious time for his party, the country and the wider world. Awaiting him in Downing Street is an unenviable intray of thorny issues that will require some hard decisions. Mr Burnham is facing the in-tray from hell when he takes the reigns today Credit: Getty There are undodgeable decisions hurtling down the tracks that will force Mr Burnham to make tough choices Credit: Crown Copyright Since returning to Parliament the new PM has been tight-lipped about his plans for government except for promising a programme of mass devolution. Mr Burnham has been criticised for failing to come clean with his agenda and instead largely resorting to “vibes”. Sign up for the Politics newsletter Thank you! But there are undodgeable decisions hurtling down the tracks that will force him to make tough choices in the coming months and years. Economy Mr Burnham inherits a spluttering economy starved of any meaningful growth and hamstrung by eye-watering amounts of debt. The economy was in Rachel Reeves’ hands under Sir Keir Starmer Credit: Alamy Poll after poll shows immigration is among the top concerns for voters Credit: PA For years Britain has been in a high-tax, high-spend doom loop that is forever squeezing workers for more of their cash. The national debt currently stands at almost £3trillion, of which the interest alone is costing us £110billion every year. Mr Burnham has pledged “good growth in every postcode” but is yet to lay out exactly how he plans to achieve that. He famously said that Britain should not be so “in hock” to the bond markets, in a signal that he could loosen the fiscal rules to allow him to borrow even more. Most read in The Sun The PM has vowed to stick to Labour’s election commitment to freeze the rates of income tax, national insurance and VAT. But he has already said people will have to “pay a little bit more”, suggesting he could raise capital gains tax, inheritance tax and reform council tax bands. Welfare By far the largest area of spending that needs cutting is the ballooning welfare budget, which is on course to hit £407billion by the end of the decade. Mr Burnham has vowed to rein in the benefits bill by driving the army of unemployed Brits back into work. But he has signalled he will avoid the kind of “crude” cuts to welfare that saw Labour MPs rebel against Sir Keir Starmer. Despite Labour MP opposition to welfare restraint, the spending is becoming such a drag on the economy that Mr Burnham will find he has no choice but to act. Mr Burnham has vowed to rein in the benefits bill Credit: Getty Mr Burnham’s biggest weakness is that he lacks a mandate of his own Credit: Reuters The PM has already committed to keeping the pensions triple lock, which accounts for around half of all welfare spending. Immigration While the Starmer government may have crowed about reducing both legal and illegal migration in recent months, the public is far from satisfied. Poll after poll shows immigration is among the top concerns for voters, with small boats especially still a major issue. Mr Burnham has already stressed the need to close migrant hotels and HMOs but that only happens by ramping up deportations. Removals of Channel crossers have historically been pitifully low. On legal migration, Mr Burnham has tentatively backed Shabana Mahmood’s crackdown on settled status for foreigners but has opened the door to softening it later. Labour MPs are already gearing up to water down the plan to double the length of time someone must live here before getting permanent residency from five to 10 years. Defence In a fractious world, there is a public clamour to shore up Britain’s defences with increased military firepower. But Sir Keir has left him with £15billion to find after failing to stump up the funds in his last few weeks as PM. How Mr Burnham goes about scrabbling together the cash to plug the black hole in the armed forces will be an early test. Donald Trump How Mr Burnham deals with Donald Trump will be crucial to Britain’s alliance with the United States. Sir Keir love-bombed the erratic President but their pair quickly found themselves in conflict over immigration, Net Zero and Iran. Labour MPs, who loathe Trump, may cheer Mr Burnham for squaring up to him initially but may find themselves with unhappy constituents if the results are more tariffs on goods. Early election? Mr Burnham’s biggest weakness is that he lacks a mandate of his own, having swept into No10 coronated by Labour MPs. Pollsters will be telling him that new PMs never have it as good as their first three months. Indeed there already seems signs of a “Burnham bounce” as Labour ties level with Reform. So – despite insisting he will not pull the trigger – Mr Burnham will be seriously considering going to the country. But he will almost certainly see his majority slashed, and big beasts are almost nailed on to lose their seats on current projections. Can he really tell Yvette Cooper, John Healey and Ed Miliband they need to be sacrificial lambs just so he can claim his own mandate to govern.It’ll be one to chew over, for sure. Comment now