Spain’s migration crisis is about to be repeated across Europe

MADRID – Almost a month after tens of thousands of migrants crossed the border with Morocco into the Spanish enclave of Ceuta, experts warn that such a crisis is likely to happen again. Images of 72,000 migrants streaming into the tiny Spanish territory in north Africa in late July sparked an international row. Of the 27 European Union states, 22 signed a letter condemning Spain, claiming its recent migration amnesty had acted as a “pull factor” destabilising the bloc’s borders. Most of the migrants left Ceuta within 24 hours but about 8,000 are still in the territory of around 83,000, creating not only a problem for Spain but concern across Europe about what comes next. Shorts Italy has suspended the Schengen agreement for travellers from Spain, leading Madrid to introduce reciprocal measures for travellers from Italy. Seven EU countries have now signed up to a pact under which asylum seekers will be returned to their first country of entry, putting pressure on Italy, which had the highest number of unauthorised boat arrivals of any European country in 2025, at around 66,000. Italy’s opposition has blamed its hard-right Prime Minister, Giorgia Meloni, for the move by other EU nations, claiming her suspension of the Schengen agreement “created a dangerous precedent for Europe”. Eleven bodies were recovered by Tunisia’s coastguard this weekend after a boat carrying Tunisian migrants to Italy sank, the African country’s National Guard said on Sunday. The central Mediterranean route for migrants crossing the sea from the North African coast is ​one of the ​world’s deadliest. Italy is also locked in a row with Germany over responsibility for migrants. Rome claimed German aid organisations had brought around 22,500 migrants to Italian ports. The Italian government is now demanding financial compensation from Berlin. Thousands of migrants remain in the Spanish territory of Ceuta, pictured last Friday, after a mass border crossing almost a month ago (Photo: Antonio Sempere/AP) Greece is also facing challenges as a major European entry point. Its conservative Prime Minister, Kyriakos Mitsotakis, has introduced tough rules to deport those who’ve been denied asylum in the country. On Sunday, migrants clashed with police at a detention centre in northern Greece, with 35 escaping before police recaptured about half of them, authorities said. Athens has faced criticism from the UN and human rights groups for what the Greek government claims are Europe’s strictest border controls, and for entering talks with Uganda and Libya to establish offshore migrant processing centres, similar to the UK’s aborted Rwanda deal. Between 1 January and 19 August, 15,897 people crossed the English Channel from France by small boat, a 43 per cent drop compared with the same period the previous year. But thousands more migrants have evaded checks in France. In late July, a record 165 migrants reached the UK in a single boat, with Border Security Command pictured towing a “mega dinghy” – estimated to be the same size as a standard bus at 13 metres (42ft) – after it arrived at Dover. States such as Morocco, Libya, Turkey and Belarus have previously been accused of using migration to gain concessions from the EU. Since 2021, Belarus, a Russian ally, has flown in migrants from the Middle East and sent them into Poland and neighbouring states. The EU has responded with tough sanctions on Belarus. The most recent were strengthened in December last year. Politicians and analysts have warned that more unauthorised crossings into European countries are likely from Morocco, Tunisia, Turkey and through Belarus. María Belén Zanzuchi, of the Migration Policy Institute Europe, said there had been cases of “engineered migration” in which states had played a role in organising large-scale crossings. A boat carries migrants from Crete to the port of Mytilene on the Greek island of Lesbos, to be taken to the temporary Kara Tepe refugee camp (Photo: Elias Marcou/Reuters) “I think that from history, migration can be instrumentalised and has been instrumentalised for many years,” she added. “In some countries, which perceive themselves as having less power, they use migration to try to negotiate something with other countries.” Turkey has extracted billions of pounds of EU cash in return for keeping Syrian migrants from leaving its country. But Zanzuchi said she did not believe the rush into Ceuta, during which 141 migrants died, was an episode of “engineered migration” by Morocco, adding that the triggers were “not clear”. She said factors may have included social media hype over a Spanish court ruling in June that found migrants entering Ceuta or Melilla – Spain’s other north African enclave – by sea could not be expelled immediately. Smuggling gangs and lax policing by Morocco and Spain may also have played a role. One million migrants were granted legal status in Spain’s migrant amnesty this year, which was criticised by the opposition centre-right People’s Party and far-right Vox. Countries including Italy and Denmark claimed the amnesty and lax migration policy were to blame for the Ceuta incursion. The Spanish Prime Minister, Pedro Sánchez, hit back at EU criticism, saying it was motivated by “prejudice, fake news, ignorance or political interest”. Myriam Cherti, a senior researcher at the Centre on Migration, Policy and Society at the University of Oxford, said she feared there could be more incursions in Ceuta and Melilla while high unemployment and poverty persisted in Morocco and other migration “feeder” countries. “Looking at the data for the past two decades, I think this is likely to happen [again],” said Cherti, who is based in Rabat. “We are talking about two populations. There are migrants and refugee populations who can claim asylum. Then there is the Moroccan population. There is high unemployment in Morocco and climate change is affecting the rural population, who are moving to the cities as agriculture has been affected.” Cherti said she believed that in the future, border security might prevent crossings on the scale of Ceuta in July but “different combinations of these mass crossings will happen”. Migrants on a ‘mega-dinghy’ attempting to cross the English Channel off the coast between Berck and Merlimont, northern France, on 10 August (Photo: SNMS Berck sur Mer/AFP) Similar factors are at play in other African countries, with high levels of youth unemployment in Tunisia, Mauritania and Senegal. Spain recently struck political and economic deals with Senegal and Mauritania in return for a migration crackdown, reducing the numbers reaching the Canary Islands this year by 59.5 per cent, according to government data from January to 15 August. For now, Spain has insisted no migrants will get to the mainland without checks on their documents. However, Madrid has said it is planning to bring 500 migrant children, mainly girls, from Ceuta to mainland Spain after reports of sex attacks on underage migrant girls in the enclave. Spain’s largest police union said 15 sexual assaults had been reported in Ceuta since 30 July. Opposition politicians said the girls should be returned to the countries they came from. Most of the 8,000 migrants in Ceuta are living in makeshift camps on beaches and in parks. Spain said last week that it would house 1,500 migrants in spaces including a car park and a sports field.