Southern Europe is dealing with fewer blazes but ‘greater’ wildfire risk. Is there a solution?

Scientists have sounded the alarm over “major intensification” of fire-promoting weather in southern Europe, as large swathes of the continent continue to burn. ADVERTISEMENT ADVERTISEMENT Uncontained blazes have swept across Spain and France in recent weeks, scorching more than 120,000 hectares across the two countries, and forcing more than 300,000 people to abandon their homes. It’s the biggest evacuation effort since World War II, and means the EU is bound for its worst wildfire season on record. While emergency response systems have helped control some of the spread, a fire four times the size of Paris threatened to surge again in southwest France yesterday (29 July), while three firefighters were killed on the Greek island of Crete. The bloc’s firefighting capacity is struggling to keep pace with the increasing intensity of the fires, which have become so powerful they have triggered their own thunderstorm. As Europe braces for yet another heatwave, fears of flare-ups remain high. Now, new research lifts the lid on how Europe is becoming increasingly exposed to deadly wildfires. What’s behind Europe’s increased wildfire risk? A new study, published today in the journal Scientific Reports, has analysed national wildfire records from Portugal, Spain, France, Italy and Greece alongside weather and climate data between 1981 and 2025. Researchers found that in parts of France and Spain, the intensity of fire-promoting weather (hot, dry and windy conditions) had increased by up to 50 per cent between 2016 and 2025 compared with 1981 to 2010. The number of days with “highly fire-promoting conditions” also increased from fewer than 10 days per summer in 1981 to 2010 to around 25 days over the last decade in parts of each country studied. The report authors say that the frequency of fire-promoting weather reflects an increase in warm, dry days and is “linked to large-scale climate patterns” including the naturally occurring El Niño. “Smaller air-pressure differences across the North Atlantic coincided with an increase in fire-promoting weather in parts of Greece, Italy, Corsica and Spain,” the report states. “Sea-surface-temperature anomalies in the tropical Pacific, associated with El Niño, preceded fire-promoting weather in parts of northwestern Iberia, in Sicily, and southern Greece.” It is worth noting that most El Niño events have temporarily increased global average temperatures by around 0.2℃. This is not as significant as human-made climate change, caused by the burning of fossil fuels, which has pushed the global surface temperature up by approximately 1.3 - 1.5℃ compared to pre-industrial levels. According to the EU’s Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S), Europe is the fastest-warming continent on the planet, with temperatures rising more than twice as fast as the global average. An attribution analysis from World Weather Attribution (WWA) also found that Europe’s recent June heatwave – which saw temperatures climb to 40℃ in several countries – would have been “virtually impossible” as recently as 1976 – just 50 years ago. Despite this, the annual number of wildfires during the past 10 years was around 40 per cent lower than the 1981 to 2010 period across the five countries – suggesting that fire management efforts are paying off, including improved training for fire brigades and better public awareness campaigns. Unless climate change is tackled, by weaning off fossil fuels and transitioning to clean energy, global temperatures will continue to rise – increasing the risk of extreme weather that fuels wildfires. In the interim, there are many wildfire management practices that can help reduce the risk. This includes ‘prescribed burns’, which involve intentionally setting fire to a designated area of land under monitored weather conditions. They are often used to clear out dead leaves and small trees, which can in turn lower the risk of larger wildfires that often break out in the summer. A 2025 study from Stanford University found that prescribed burns can reduce the severity of subsequent wildfires by an average of 16 per cent and net smoke pollution by an average of 14 per cent. According to the World Wildlife Foundation (WWF), ensuring “sustainable land use management” can also help control deadly infernos – particularly in areas that are already high wildfire risk. “It is important to regulate land-use change and update zoning guidance to ensure that development does not exacerbate fire risk,” the organisation states. “The impacts of fires do not stop when they are put out, as floods and soil erosion can follow. After a fire, reduce the risk of further damage by ensuring that burned land is rehabilitated with vegetation adaptable to a changing climate.” Experts from environmental organisations including WWF and Wetlands International Europe are also calling for the restoration of landscapes and healthy water systems to tackle drought and wildfires. Wildfire risk can heighten after just a few days of scorching temperatures, as moisture evaporates from grass, shrubs and other vegetation. This makes them easier to ignite and harder to extinguish. But wetlands and rivers absorb, store and slowly release water – making them natural fire breaks. However, depleting water levels and degradation are dwindling their ability to stop the spread of blazes. Re-introducing species that have been proven to stop wildfire damage is also worth considering. Beavers, for example, have been described as natural firefighters due to their dam-building activity which has been found to halt the spread of blazes by keeping vegetation green during droughts.