Sheinbaum: US midterm results reflect sentiment of people

Experts and Sheinbaum herself noted the relationship between the U.S. and Mexico will still generally rely on the same power structures despite the clobbering President Donald Trump's party took in the midterms.MEXICO CITY (CN) — Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum celebrated two U.S. gubernatorial election wins in her morning press conference Wednesday.“I would like to highlight the achievement of two individuals of Mexican origin: the governor-elect of California and the governor-elect of Texas,” Sheinbaum said, referring to election victories of Xavier Becerra and Gina Hinojosa..Though highlighting these triumphs, Sheinbaum said the relationship between the U.S. and Mexico will remain unchanged despite the major rebuke of Donald Trump’s presidency delivered by the American people.“We always seek the best possible relationship with the United States — one that ensures respect for our sovereignty and territorial integrity, and is based on collaboration without subordination,” she said.When mentioning trade relations with the U.S., Sheinbaum noted talks under the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement go through the executive branch and not Congress.The U.S. declined to renew the USMCA trade agreement in July and review of the agreement, which is in effect until 2036, will continue on a yearly basis or until all three countries agree to sign an extension.Tony Payan, the executive director of the Claudio X. González Center for the U.S. and Mexico at Rice University’s Baker Institute for Public Policy said that a lot of what Trump does with Mexico depends a lot on how the Democrats handle him.“There are some things that I think Trump understands well, and I think he probably understands that he got a beating and that he is largely responsible for it,” said Payan. “He told people to ‘make as if I were on the ballot.’ And the people gave him a flunking no.”As for what’s ahead for Trump, Payan said it depends on how Democrats treat him.“It’ll depend on how the Democrats come into power,” said Payan. “But he may double down on some things. Foreign policy is obviously an area where he can certainly do that because in foreign policy, the president is king.”When it comes to Mexico, Payan doesn’t expect Trump to change the agenda a whole lot.“The issues on the binational agenda are the same, right? They’re immigration, they are trade, organized crime and security, and I would add a fourth that’s been really important: water sharing,” he said.Payan said that now that Texas has gone blue, Trump may leave Texas to deal with water sharing issues on its own.Trump’s hardline stance on water sharing forced Mexico to begin delivering massive amounts of water to the U.S. in December 2025 to address Mexico’s water debt and in order to avoid Trump’s 5% tariffs.“I think that if Sheinbaum expects the Trump administration to let up on the agenda on those four items based on a changed Congress — she would be mistaken,” said Payan.A report from political risk consultancy group Integralia stated that though Trump retains broad authority on tariffs, midterm Republican losses could result in increased pressure within the party to moderate certain trade measures to avoid further political costs heading into 2028.The group also noted a Democratic majority cannot override presidential executive orders on its own and Mexico should expect continued pressure from the Trump administration to contain migration flows and accept deported individuals into Mexico.During the first 18 months of Trump’s presidency, the Department of Homeland Security has deported 980,000 individuals according to a Migration Policy Institute report.Over two-thirds of these deportations involved unauthorized immigrants initially intercepted at the border despite U.S.-Mexico border encounters at historic lows.About 20,000 people with no ties to Mexico were removed to Mexico from the U.S during Trump’s first seven months of his second presidential term.Enrique Gutiérrez Márquez, director of the Department of Social and Political Sciences at the Universidad Iberoamericana does not see a change forthcoming regarding immigration.He said Sheinbaum will likely frame the election as a victory, pointing to the selection of individuals of Mexican-American descent. However, it is important to note that an electoral shift does not necessarily translate into a structural or institutional realignment.“I would argue that even with the shifts taking place in Washington — including the changes in state governorships across the United States — does not necessarily signal a move toward a different international outlook or a fundamental change in policy,” said Gutiérrez Márquez.“It might be anticlimactic, or perhaps even politically incorrect to say, but one of the U.S. presidents who oversaw the highest number of deportations was not a Republican, but rather a Democrat — Barack Obama. Therefore, while there may be a realignment in Washington, it does not necessarily point to an immediate shift in policy or a move away from the radicalized approach currently being pursued by the president himself,” he said.“It’s a new scenario, or a new scenario with old players, a scenario that changes the arrangement of the pieces a bit, but that maintains the structural issues that are very complex,” said Gutiérrez Márquez.Subscribe to our free newslettersOur weekly newsletter Closing Arguments offers the latest about ongoing trials, major litigation and rulings in courthouses around the U.S. and the world, while the monthly Under the Lights dishes the legal dirt from Hollywood, sports, Big Tech and the arts.Additional Reads