Sensex, Nifty opening: Will stock market rise or fall today?

Benchmark indices are likely to open higher on Tuesday, tracking gains in Wall Street and Asian markets as easing crude oil prices and lower US Treasury yields improve investor sentiment. The positive global cues come ahead of possible diplomatic engagement between the US and Iran at the United Nations General Assembly this week.GIFT Nifty futures were at around 23,500 points at 7:45 am, signalling a positive start for the Nifty50, which closed at 23,414.30 on Monday. The Nifty has gained 1.3% over the last four sessions as investors bought into the market after six consecutive weekly declines.The positive opening indication comes after the Sensex gained 564.03 points, or 0.76%, to close at 74,858.99 on Monday, while the Nifty rose 67.90 points, or 0.29%, to 23,414.30.Global markets are also providing support. The Nasdaq hit a record high overnight, while Asian stocks rose in morning trade. Reuters reported that MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan was up around 1.5%. CRUDE OIL, BOND YIELDS OFFER SOME RELIEFCrude oil remains a key factor for Indian markets. Brent crude was hovering around $101 a barrel after falling for four consecutive sessions through Monday, while the US 10-year Treasury yield also declined.Oil prices remain highly sensitive to developments around the US-Iran conflict. On Tuesday, Brent remained close to the $100 mark as investors weighed the possibility of diplomatic engagement against continuing geopolitical risks. For India, any sustained moderation in crude prices could ease concerns around inflation, the import bill and pressure on corporate costs.At the same time, the decline in US bond yields can offer some relief to emerging-market equities by reducing the relative attractiveness of US fixed-income assets.US-IRAN TALKS IN FOCUSGeopolitical developments will remain a major trigger for markets this week.US President Donald Trump has said he would be open to meeting Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian, who is expected to be in New York for the UN General Assembly. The two countries have continued to exchange threats, keeping uncertainty around the Middle East conflict and energy supplies high.Investors are watching whether diplomatic engagement can lead to a reduction in tensions. Any progress could have implications for crude oil prices and, in turn, inflation expectations and global markets.Asian equities rose on Tuesday amid hopes of a possible US-Iran diplomatic breakthrough, while falling oil prices and lower bond yields also supported sentiment.FII SELLING REMAIN A CONCERNDespite the improving market mood, foreign investor selling remains a key risk.Foreign investors sold Indian shares worth Rs 576.20 crore on a net basis on Monday, according to provisional data. They have been net sellers in seven of the last eight sessions.This means the positive global cues are coming against a backdrop of continued foreign outflows. The market will therefore watch whether domestic buying can continue to offset selling by overseas investors.The primary market is another factor in focus. The Rs 2.3-lakh-crore NSE IPO? No — the NSE IPO is worth about $2.3 billion and has attracted strong demand, with the issue closing on Monday after being oversubscribed. Reuters reported that the IPO received more than $10 billion in bids and was subscribed 5.71 times.Pabitro Mukherjee, Deputy Vice President-Research, Bajaj Broking, said the Nifty formed a bullish candle on the daily chart with a higher high and higher low, signalling that the pullback has continued for a fourth session."The index in the last four sessions has been consolidating within last Tuesday sizable bearish candle price range highlighting consolidation after recent sharp decline," Mukherjee said.He expects the Nifty to consolidate in the broad range of 23,115-23,650 in the coming sessions.On the upside, 23,600-23,650 will act as a major resistance zone, according to Mukherjee. He said the index needs to sustain the higher-high and higher-low formation and reclaim 23,650 to signal a pause in the ongoing downtrend.On the downside, a break below last week's low of 23,115 could resume the corrective phase towards 23,000 and 22,800, he said.The opening setup is positive, with GIFT Nifty pointing to gains and global equities providing support. However, investors will need to watch crude oil, US bond yields, foreign fund flows and developments around the US-Iran situation.The Nifty's immediate technical range is also important. A move towards 23,600-23,650 would bring the key resistance zone into focus, while 23,115 remains an important downside level, according to Bajaj Broking.So, while the early indicators point to a higher opening, the market's ability to hold those gains through the session will depend on crude prices, global cues and geopolitical developments.(Disclaimer: The views, opinions, recommendations, and suggestions expressed by experts/brokerages in this article are their own and do not reflect the views of the India Today Group. It is advisable to consult a qualified broker or financial advisor before making any actual investment or trading choices.)- EndsPublished On: Sep 22, 2026 08:37 IST