Scandinavia looks to export inmates amid tough-on-crime policies, prison overcrowding

(CN) — On a breezy afternoon in August, four inmates of the Swedish prison system embarked on an unusual cross-country journey.Departing the southern Swedish city of Linköping, they boarded a plane for Tartu, Estonia. Around a week later, another group of 11 also left.These flights — the first of many — comes following an around $700 million deal in which Sweden is renting Estonian prison space for as many as 600 inmates. By the end of 2026, Sweden plans to send 200 prisoners to the Baltic country in an arrangement that other EU countries may soon copy.Not much is known about these prisoners beyond the basics. They’re all Swedish citizens. They’re all at least 18. All of them are classified as “category two” offenders, the second-most dangerous classification under the country’s penal laws.Per the agreement, Estonia will only accept Swedish nationals. Convicted terrorists aren’t welcome, nor is anyone with ties to gangs.At press time, at least 15 Swedish prisoners are now incarcerated at Tartu Prison in eastern Estonia.There, they can enjoy some of the comforts seen in Swedish prisons. Their windows have shades, and the televisions in their cells get Swedish channels. Unlike most Estonian prisoners, who must abide by a no-tobacco policy, these incarcerated Swedes get to partake in the Swedish tradition of using snus.Tartu Prison in Tartu, Estonia. Under a deal between the countries, Sweden is paying $700 million to host as many as 600 inmates here. (Tartu Prison/Wikipedia via Courthouse News)More than a prison exchange, this deal heralds deeper shifts in Sweden and across Europe. Public fears about gangs — particularly gangs including migrants — have fueled right-wing politics and tough-on-crime policies.The reality of crime in Sweden is complicated. Like much of the Western world, Sweden has seen overall declines following the historic crime wave of the 1960s through ’90s. But that downward trend stalled out in Sweden around 2013, according to the Swedish National Council for Crime Prevention or Brå, with some crimes including gun homicides even ticking up.As a result, Sweden — long known for its peaceful reputation — now has more than twice as many gun deaths as the European average, at 4 gun murders for every 1 million residents. Equally troubling for Swedes, there’s also been a marked increase in youth involvement in crime, affecting not just major cities like Stockholm but also small towns and rural areas.The raw numbers are small compared to the United States, where despite being at historic lows, the country’s rate of gun deaths is around 10 times higher. In recent years, Swedish crime stats are once again trending down. Even so, the mayhem has outraged Swedes, causing changes to the country’s political landscape.For the first time in more than a decade, the political right is in power in Sweden. Elected in 2022, the government of Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson is arguably Sweden’s most conservative government dating back to the early 20th century.In an attempt to stymie gangs, Sweden’s legislature in June passed a law allowing authorities to imprison defendants for some serious offenses. Swedish authorities are also making extensive use of remand, whereby suspects are held in custody pending trial. But it’s unclear Sweden has room for all these prisoners: In a report last year, the Swedish Prison and Probation Service estimated the prison population would balloon by 2034, going from just around 5,000 in 2014 to a whopping 35,000.Fear is a big part of the story. Stories of gangland violence have rattled Swedes, sullying the country’s reputation for peace and quiet.Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson, left, and U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio pose for a photo in Helsingborg, Sweden, on May 22, 2026. (Freddie Everett/U.S. State Department via Courthouse News)Other European countries are seeing similar trends — and seeking out similar solutions. The United Kingdom has also eyed a prisoner-swap deal with Estonia. Denmark, meanwhile, plans to send 300 inmates to Kosovo starting next year, with a focus on what the government calls “deportee criminal aliens.”Like in Sweden, prison officials in Denmark are sounding the alarm over what they say are untenable increases in inmate numbers.In the span of just a few months this year, the number of inmates in Danish prisons shot from 4,200 to 4,600, setting an all-time record for the country. For comparison, Denmark has averaged around 3,500 inmates in custody at any given time over the past 25 years.At the same time, the number of prison guards fell for years, with only around 1,900 employees last year compared to 2,600 in 2012. And while Danish officials are now making some strides in hiring more guards, the contrast between increasing inmates and declining prison employees is creating a disturbing situation, said Bo Yde Sørensen, chair of the Danish Prison Officers Union.“We have two curves that don’t match,” he said.Just like in Sweden, the situation in Denmark is being fueled by fears of public disorder and tough-on-crime policies. Although the left-wing Social Democrats are still in power in Denmark, political winds including the rise of far-right parties are pushing the country further to the right. Mette Frederiksen, leader of the Social Democrats and the current prime minister, has steered the party in a rightward direction.In February, Denmark’s parliament increased sentences by 50% for some violent crimes and even doubled them for others. That’s despite the fact that like in Sweden, the reality of crime is more complex: Overall rates are going down, although there’s been a marked increase in youth involvement in violent crime.A Danish prison cell designed for a single inmate. (Danish Prison and Probation Service via Courthouse News)The law-and-order rhetoric belies a problem more rooted in data: that of prison overcrowding.Sørensen doesn’t think Danish officials are taking it seriously enough. “I don’t believe that the politicians have truly understood our message to pull the brakes,” he told Courthouse News in a phone interview. Nor does he think exporting prisoners is a viable fix. “I’ve never seen Kosovo as a solution,” he said. “I’ve seen it more as part of a domestic policy show.”With 15 years of experience as a prison guard, Sørensen has witnessed first-hand the steep decline of prison conditions in Denmark.Overcrowding hasforced many inmates to double up in cells that are around 86 square feet and intended for just one person. That’s below European standards, which say that two-person cells should be at least 10 square meters or around 108 square feet.“Many of those we throw into these shared cells are weak and have psychological issues,” Sørensen said. “We throw them together and expect them to be better human beings from it?” He doesn’t think these conditions are good for the guards, either. “Experience in this business has also taught me that nothing wears down prison officers more than this practice.”Sørensen acknowledges Danish politicians have done some good, including raising wages for guards and recent efforts to hire more of them. Nonetheless, he said some guards he knows are working up to 60 hours a week — far above the regular Danish workweek of just 37 hours.More than just guards, “we are also humans with husbands, wives, kids and Labradors,” he said. “We need time to go home and hold our wives’ hands. We need to keep that in mind. We’re family people, too.”Sørensen’s concerns about prison conditions are echoed by experts. As a Ph.D. student at the University of Copenhagen, Astrid Witt Rosenberg has studied how staff and inmates experience prison architecture and what effects it has on resocializing criminals.Bo Yde Sørensen, chairman of the Danish Prison Officers' Union, appreciates the Danish government’s attempt to support his colleagues, but says more work is needed to address a spike in inmates. (Nicolai Perjeci/Danish Prison Officers' Union via Courthouse News)“Increasing use of shared cells can have negative consequences for both inmates and staff, especially when the cells were not built for two people,” she said in an email. Crowded together, everyday activities like snoring, toilet use and watching television can easily create conflict.“The problems become more evident when the number of inmates increases while the number of staff decreases,” Rosenberg added. Overworked and stretched thin, guards have less ability to focus on the needs of all inmates. Such conditions “can increase the inmates’ stress levels and degrade their well-being,” she said. “At the same time, staff can carry a feeling of not having the necessary conditions at their disposal to succeed with their core task.”Even prison officials are sounding the alarm. The condition of Danish prisons is “a very serious situation, with a lack of staff and major overcrowding,” Mik Grüning, vice director at the Danish Prison and Probation Service and leader of a task force responsible for staff and capacity, said in an email. Nonetheless, he’s optimistic that efforts to hire more guards will increase prison capacity “remarkably.”“We have, of course, not yet reached our desired goal,” he said. “We continue to attract more attention to ourselves so we can continue the promising development.” And if all else fails, there’s always the back-up option: paying other countries to make room for prisoners.Courthouse News correspondent Lasse Sørensen is based in Copenhagen, Denmark.Subscribe to our free newslettersOur weekly newsletter Closing Arguments offers the latest about ongoing trials, major litigation and rulings in courthouses around the U.S. and the world, while the monthly Under the Lights dishes the legal dirt from Hollywood, sports, Big Tech and the arts.Additional Reads