SA votes: Here’s what to expect when the results start rolling in

South Africa's two biggest parties, the ANC and the DA will contest to lead the country's most critical municipalities. As South Africans go to the polls today (Wednesday), an expert says the outlook for the country points to further fragmentation of the political landscape, with coalitions likely to play a decisive role in a number of municipalities. Political analyst Theo Neethling told The Citizen on Tuesday that the ANC’s once-dominant position has weakened significantly, while the DA is increasingly emerging as a competitive political force. “The DA’s latest internal poll places the party’s national support at 28.4%, compared to 29.6% for the ANC. LIVE interactive map, latest news, multimedia and more! View Map “Independent polls show a wider gap, with the ANC at approximately 32% and the DA at 26%. Although the exact figures differ, the underlying trend is significant: the ANC’s support is under pressure, and the DA is gradually narrowing the gap,” said Neethling. He said the ANC’s support has fallen from nearly 70% in 2004 to approximately 40% in the 2024 election. “This loss of nearly 30 percentage points signifies a profound shift in the South African political landscape and the erosion of the ANC’s historical electoral dominance.” However, he said at the metropolitan level, the outlook varies considerably from one metro to another. “The DA’s strongest position is in Cape Town, while Tshwane and Johannesburg also offer the possibility of the party emerging as the largest force. “Ekurhuleni and Nelson Mandela Bay are likely to be more competitive political battlegrounds, while, according to available polls, the MK Party holds a very strong position in eThekwini,” he said. He said in Mangaung, the DA’s prospects must be assessed with greater caution. “Although the party’s internal polling places it slightly ahead of the ANC, the Constitutional Court’s ruling regarding the ANC’s proportional candidate list could work to the advantage of the ANC’s local organisation and its capacity to mobilise support. “This does not, however, mean that an ANC victory is guaranteed. The party will still need to retain its existing support base, effectively mobilise voters, and address the local challenges that undermine its credibility,” he said. Most votes doesn’t mean you will rule Neethling said a distinction is drawn between securing the largest share of the vote and the ability to form and control a municipal government. “In instances where no party achieves an absolute majority, the selection of coalition partners, the negotiation of policy priorities, and the capacity to establish a stable administration will be decisive.” He said the challenge for both the ANC and the DA, is not merely to emerge as the largest party in these metros, but to translate electoral growth into sustainable local governance. “Ultimately, the success of the upcoming election will be determined not only by which party secures the most votes, but also by which party succeeds in forming credible, functional, and stable coalitions,” he said.