Russia’s new Banderol missile cripples Ukraine’s Black Sea grain exports (Ukraine Battlefield update, Day 1,621)

Every day, the Ukraine Battlefield update newsletter offers a clear look at how the war is unfolding on the ground. Subscribe for free here to get the full text delivered to your inbox. Russia has effectively halted much of Ukraine’s seaborne grain exports. Its attacks have been aided by the new Banderol missile — what is its main advantage? Russia fired a record number of ballistic missiles at Ukraine in July. However, the number of Russian long-range drones declined, and Ukrainians are now shooting down Russians at a rate of two to one. Russian forces made gains of 88 square kilometres in July. Russian troops hold around 20 percent of Kostiantynivka, while reports that Chasiv Yar has fallen appear not to have been confirmed. Videos of the day: Russians damaged an important bridge in Sloviansk, a Flamingo flew very low over the ground, and Russians struck a residential area in Pavlohrad with a glide bomb. In recent weeks, we have written extensively about Ukrainian attacks on targets inside the Russian Federation. These included refineries and warehouses belonging to the online retailer Wildberries (with another attack taking place on Monday morning). However, Russia has also stepped up its attacks. Among other places, this has affected the Ukrainian port of Odesa and its surrounding area. In the first half of the year, Russia carried out 180 attacks on the area, roughly as many as during the whole of 2025. In July, there were at least another 56, according to The Economist. They struck and damaged at least 20 ships or port infrastructure. For this reason too, exports of Ukrainian products by sea through Odesa’s ports are now effectively halted — by as much as 98 percent, according to one source. This poses a serious problem for Ukraine’s economy. According to Ukrainska Pravda, 60 percent of Ukrainian imports and exports pass through the sea. Andriy Pyshnyy, governor of the National Bank of Ukraine, said, according to the UNN website, that continued shelling of ports and disruptions to maritime logistics could cost Ukraine $2.5bn [€2.2m] in export revenues in the second half of the year — equivalent to 0.9 percent of the country’s GDP this year. Some exports can be replaced by shipments via the Danube or land borders, but not entirely. Ukraine is thus returning to 2022, when Russia effectively blocked agricultural exports through the Black Sea. This comes just as the harvest season is underway. Russia has largely achieved the success of this campaign thanks to a new weapon which it unveiled last year but has only begun deploying on a large scale in recent weeks. The OSINT account Woofer even wrote that it could pose a problem not only for Ukraine but, over time, also for Nato in a hypothetical conflict.