Russia’s Military Missed 15 of Putin’s Deadlines to Seize Donbas, ISW Says

Russian President Vladimir Putin has given his military at least 15 deadlines in order to capture Donbas since the start of the full-scale invasion, however Russian forces have failed to meet them, as per the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), citing Western and Ukrainian military intelligence.According to Reuters, as early as August 2025, Russian military commanders promised Putin that the Ukrainian front would collapse by October or November, with the Donetsk Oblast being fully captured by the middle of the war’s fourth year.JOIN US ON TELEGRAMFollow our coverage of the war on the @Kyivpost_official.Those deadlines have repeatedly been pushed back.In spring 2026, sources cited by the Financial Times said that the target had been moved to autumn. By summer, Bloomberg reported that Russian commanders had promised Putin that Donbas would come under full Russian control by winter.Russia controls less than 80% of Donetsk OblastDespite the repeated deadlines, Russian forces currently control 79.89% of the Donetsk Oblast, or around 21,170 square kilometers (8,174 square miles) according to ISW estimates.The institute said the Kremlin’s military objectives “continue to remain detached from reality.”Russian forces captured only 0.8% of Ukraine’s territory in 2025, compared with 0.6% in 2024, according to the figures cited in the report.On some parts of the front, the Russian advance has slowed to as little as 15-70 meters (49-230 feet) per day, described as record-low rates in more than a century of modern warfare. Other Topics of Interest Ukrainian Drones Hit Afipsky Refinery for 5th Time, Novoshakhtinsk Plant Reportedly Targeted Ukrainian drones have attacked Russian industrial facilities more than 70 times since the beginning of 2026, disabling dozens of enterprises. The advance has slowed even further in 2026.According to DeepState data cited in the report, Russian forces expanded their area of control by just 88 square kilometers (34 square miles) in the latest period, compared with 57 square kilometers (22 square miles) the previous month.In May, Russian forces recorded a net territorial loss of 11 square kilometers (4 square miles) despite a sharp increase in infantry assaults.Russia may fail to capture Donbas in 2026At the current rate of advance, Russian forces are unlikely to capture the remaining parts of Donbas by the end of 2026 and may never achieve the objective, according to ISW.Sources close to Russia’s defense ministry also told Bloomberg that some military officials consider Putin’s goals unrealistic and expect fighting over Donbas to continue into 2027.Despite increasingly frequent Ukrainian strikes against targets inside Russia, including oil refineries, ports, and warehouse facilities, it remains too early to conclude that Kyiv has turned the battlefield decisively in its favor, according to Dara Massicot, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center in Berlin.Massicot said Ukrainian forces are maintaining an active defense across most sectors, while Russia is responding by increasing the size of its combined-arms formations around priority areas, particularly Donetsk.According to her, Russian ground tactics have also barely changed in 2026. Infantry infiltration remains the main method of attack, with assault groups sometimes consisting of just one or two soldiers.At the same time, the “kill zone” created by drones is expanding on both sides, making movement and resupply increasingly dangerous for Russian and Ukrainian troops alike. Kyiv Post is Ukraine’s first and oldest English news organization, reporting since 1995. Its international reach – 97% of readers are outside of Ukraine – make it truly Ukraine’s global voice.