Russia’s Donbas Advance Goes Into Reverse as Ukraine Retakes Ground

Ukraine is retaking territory in Donbas and disrupting Russia’s plans to encircle the region’s remaining Ukrainian-held cities, challenging the Kremlin’s narrative that their capture is inevitable, The New York Times (NYT) reported.According to the report, Russian President Vladimir Putin has repeatedly claimed that Ukraine’s defenses in the Donbas will collapse and that Russian forces will seize the region faster than Kyiv expects.JOIN US ON TELEGRAMFollow our coverage of the war on the @Kyivpost_official.Recent battlefield developments, however, point in the opposite direction.A Ukrainian counteroffensive in northern Donetsk, known as Operation Vivaldi, has pushed Russian troops back, reclaimed settlements, and prevented Moscow’s forces from advancing behind the defensive belt centered on Sloviansk and Kramatorsk.The operation has been underway for several months, but Ukraine kept many of its details secret until September.Russia’s encirclement plan disruptedRussia sought to approach Sloviansk and Kramatorsk from the north through the Lyman sector while advancing from the south, creating a wide encirclement of what Ukrainian forces call the Donbas “fortress belt.”Operation Vivaldi disrupted the northern part of that plan.Ukraine’s 3rd Army Corps said its troops recaptured several settlements, severed Russian logistical routes, and forced Moscow to redeploy units to stabilize the front.President Volodymyr Zelensky initially said that Ukrainian forces had reclaimed 176 square kilometers (68 square miles) during the operation. In a subsequent interview, he offered a more conservative estimate of between 125 and 140 square kilometers (48-54 square miles). Other Topics of Interest ‘Fair Response’: Ukraine Hits Russian Airfield, Oil Sites and Black Sea Target The attacks also targeted Russian radar and electronic warfare stations, drone command posts, fuel depots and frontline headquarters. “Vivaldi is a very successful operation. It is not finished yet,” Zelensky said.Ukraine is already preparing a fourth phase of the counteroffensive. The first three phases also inflicted more than 5,000 Russian casualties and resulted in the capture of approximately 250 Russian troops, according to Ukrainian officials.The battlefield claims cannot all be independently verified because extensive drone surveillance has created wide contested areas where neither side maintains complete control.Russia’s territorial gains turn negativeWestern organizations tracking the front line have produced different figures, but their assessments point to the same general trend: Russia’s advance slowed sharply in 2026 and may have gone into reverse during September.The Finnish open-source intelligence organization Black Bird Group estimated that the area under Russian control shrank by approximately 190 square kilometers (73 square miles) in September.“This marks the greatest monthly net territorial loss for Russia in our dataset since June 2023,” the group said.The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) produced a more conservative estimate. It assessed that Russian forces captured approximately 176 square kilometers (68 square miles) but lost about 256 square kilometers (99 square miles) in September, leaving Moscow with a net loss of roughly 81 square kilometers (31 square miles).ISW cautioned that some territory recorded as liberated in September may have been retaken earlier because Ukraine concealed the progress of Operation Vivaldi.From March through September, Russia lost control of nearly 294 square kilometers (113 square miles) while establishing a presence in approximately 174 square kilometers (67 square miles), according to ISW’s calculation.Russian forces also suffered more than 46,000 casualties during September while probably making no net territorial gains, the organization said.Pressure continues in southern DonbasUkraine’s success in the north does not mean that the battle for Donbas has ended.Russian forces continue conducting intense attacks in southern Donetsk and remain capable of putting pressure on Ukrainian defensive lines. Moscow has also attempted to infiltrate Ukrainian positions using small infantry groups rather than relying exclusively on large mechanized assaults.Ukraine has reorganized its defenses in the area and, according to the NYT, has so far prevented Russian forces from achieving the breakthroughs needed to encircle Donbas cities still controlled by Kyiv.Russian advances across Ukraine have generally slowed since March compared with the already limited pace recorded during 2025.Independent estimates differ over the exact amount of territory captured by each side, but analysts broadly agree that Russia has gained only slightly more land than it has lost during 2026 – despite sustaining heavy casualties and repeatedly claiming major battlefield success.Putin claimed on Oct. 1 that Russian forces had captured 1,301 square kilometers (502 square miles) during September alone. Independent battlefield maps do not support that figure.Russian commanders face criticismUkraine’s gains have also triggered criticism from Russian pro-war military bloggers who accuse commanders of sending misleading reports about supposed advances to their superiors.ISW said some Russian commentators blamed a culture of “beautiful reports” for leaving senior commanders with an inaccurate picture of the battlefield and helping Ukraine achieve surprise around Lyman.One prominent Russian military blogger acknowledged that Ukrainian advances had delayed Russia’s planned offensive toward Sloviansk and left the northern flank of a major Russian grouping vulnerable to further counterattacks.There is no independently verified evidence of “panic” throughout the Kremlin. However, criticism from pro-war Russian commentators and Moscow’s efforts to regain lost positions indicate concern over a counteroffensive that has undermined Putin’s claim that the fall of Donbas is only a matter of time.Ukraine’s latest official account of Operation Vivaldi says its forces recovered up to 140 square kilometers (54 square miles) around Lyman, while earlier phases liberated several settlements and disrupted Russia’s attempt to advance toward Sloviansk and Kramatorsk. Kyiv Post is Ukraine’s first and oldest English news organization, reporting since 1995. Its international reach – 90% of readers are outside of Ukraine – make it truly Ukraine’s global voice.