Russia’s Africa Ambitions Face Test As Economic, Security Gains Remain Limited

Russia’s Africa Ambitions Face Test As Economic, Security Gains Remain Limited Russia’s ambition to deepen its influence in Africa faces significant challenges, with its limited economic contributions, declining arms exports and questionable security partnerships raising concerns about its ability to deliver lasting benefits to the continent. This was the assessment of Martin Minns, Co-Executive Producer of the Pan-Africa podcast, Panel 54, following the third Russia–Africa Summit held in Moscow from October 28 to 29, 2026. The summit, originally scheduled to take place in Libya, attracted 22 African heads of state, according to the Kremlin, compared with 17 at the second edition in St Petersburg in 2023 and 43 at the inaugural gathering in Sochi in 2019. While the Kremlin attributed the reduced attendance to what it described as “outrageous” Western pressure, Minns argued that the more important questions were what Africa stood to gain from the diplomatic gathering and whether it would produce sustainable partnerships. He noted that Russia’s economic contribution to Africa remained relatively small, accounting for less than one per cent of foreign direct investment into the continent. He also observed that Russian global arms exports declined by 64 per cent between 2021 and 2025, while its security involvement in the Sahel had failed to produce reliable guarantees. According to Minns, annual deaths linked to violent extremism in the Sahel rose from an average of 927 between 2016 and 2019 to 10,470 between 2022 and 2025. He further identified the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war as a major constraint on Moscow’s capacity to sustain its military, economic and diplomatic commitments in Africa. The recruitment of Africans to fight in Ukraine has also damaged Russia’s image on the continent. Citing an October 2026 report by the Hague-based Journalists for Justice, titled ‘The Death Contract: How Russia Recruits Africans to Fight and Die in Ukraine,’ Minns said 3,034 African citizens from 40 countries had been recruited into the Russian armed forces, often through deception and promises of civilian employment. He welcomed an agreement between Russian President Vladimir Putin and Kenyan President William Ruto to designate Kenya as a non-source country for recruitment into the Russian military, but questioned whether the arrangement would prevent recruiters from exploiting alternative channels. Minns also cited reports that Russia was expanding its recruitment activities into countries including Zimbabwe, Burundi and Sierra Leone. He noted that African governments increasingly viewed Russia through a policy of “diversified non-alignment”, engaging Moscow alongside other international partners to advance their economic, security and diplomatic interests. According to him, Russia’s ability to translate political declarations into tangible benefits would ultimately determine its standing among African countries. “Ultimately, Russia’s standing as a partner will depend on its ability to provide sustained economic benefits, reliable security partnerships and tangible outcomes for African countries,” he said. He added that while the Moscow summit demonstrated the scale of Russia’s ambitions, its subsequent actions would determine how much of those ambitions could realistically be achieved. “As they say: ‘talk is cheap’,” Minns added.