Russian Oil Is No Longer India’s Easy Bargain

India’s crude imports fell in August, and Russia’s share declined with them, exposing a supply problem that seasonal refinery patterns alone cannot explain. The usual maintenance period at Indian plants comes toward the end of the monsoon, when domestic diesel and gasoline demand typically eases, but most refiners have largely postponed this year’s work because the current market crisis has produced strong margins on refined products. Demand has also remained unusually resilient. The more consequential shift is on the other side of the trade: Russia is exporting less crude both to India and overall, just as China is competing more aggressively for available cargoes. The question for the coming months is therefore whether August represents a temporary retreat or the start of a period in which Russian barrels become scarcer, costlier and harder for Indian refiners to secure.India imported 2.08 million b/d of Russian crude in August, returning to May levels after taking 2.8 million b/d in July. Overall crude imports declined to 4.7 million b/d from 5.05 million b/d, although the August total was still the highest for that month in five years and comfortably above the five-year August average of 4.2 million b/d. However, usual refinery maintenance may explain only part of the retreat – the high fuel margins on the market have made most of the refiners postpone the monsoon-season maintenance. BPCL’s Mumbai refinery had planned work for September, but has reportedly moved it to November, while only partial maintenance and shutdown work may take place at CPCL’s Manali refinery in Chennai in the weeks to come. Combined with MRPL shutting its 60,000 b/d CDU-I for a period of four weeks, coming back towards the end of September, India’s autumn maintenance might feel surprisingly light compared to previous years. Domestic consumption has meanwhile been stronger than usual: July demand for both diesel and petrol was about 10% higher than a year earlier, reaching 8.09 million tonnes and 3.82 million tonnes, respectively. August demand is also expected to have remained stronger year-on-year after El Niño left monsoon rainfall about 15% below the normal average (the lowest level since 2009), sustaining irrigation demand and limiting the customary monsoon-related reduction in road activity.The sharper constraint is Russian supply. Total seaborne Russian crude exports fell to 3.7 million b/d in August, compared with 4.1 million b/d in July. Notably, the decline was concentrated primarily at the Black Sea port of Novorossiysk, while loadings increased at Kozmino (ESPO) and Ust-Luga. Novorossiysk has been the second-largest departure point for Russian crude exports to India since April 2026 and was also the largest source of lost Indian volumes in August: shipments from the port dropped to 616,000 b/d from 800,000 b/d in July. One reason is security. Ukrainian drone attacks in the Black Sea have become a tangible threat to navigation, affecting Russian ships, vessels operated by US companies and the Caspian Pipeline Consortium terminal. The CPC facility, which handles Kazakh crude, has suffered multiple attacks, and its loadings were even suspended for several weeks.Freight economics reinforce the incentive to avoid the Black Sea. Moving a Suezmax cargo from Novorossiysk to India’s west coast now costs about $20 million, equivalent to roughly $20/bbl, compared with about $13 million, or $13/bbl, if transported from the Baltic Sea ports. The maths favor Baltic loadings, but those voyages carry their own risks as Russian tankers sailing around Europe face detention or seizure by European countries. That has encouraged greater use of the Northern Sea Route (NSR), for which August and September are the peak traffic months even in a normal year due to the thinnest ice levels. With Black Sea drone threats adding to the pressure, Russian exporters are sending more vessels through the route, logically making China the most cost-competitive destination.Competition from China is consequently intensifying. Its crude purchases increased to 7.4 million b/d in August from 6.9 million b/d in July and a June low of 6.0 million b/d, while its Russian imports rose to 1.7 million last month b/d from 1.4 million b/d in July. More Urals cargoes are now moving to China instead of India. Two additional factors are strengthening that competition. Russia is seeking to maximize domestic refining amid fuel shortages as a growing number of plants restart after Ukrainian drone strikes, leaving less crude available for export. Iran, meanwhile, has been drawing down floating storage near the Chinese coast and Singapore that China had recently been able to buy comfortably. With the US Navy effectively blocking the Iranian fleet at the Strait of Hormuz, those inventories are unlikely to be replenished soon, giving Chinese buyers an even stronger incentive to pursue Russian barrels.India is responding by widening its supply base, although alternative routes remain vulnerable. The UAE retained its position as India’s second-largest crude supplier in August, with shipments increasing to 520,000 b/d from 470,000 b/d in July. Saudi Arabian flows fell to 350,000 b/d from 415,000 b/d, mainly because the Bab el-Mandeb Strait closed in late July and Suez-bound cargoes are mostly going to Europe. On the other hand, Saudi shipments in the Gulf have been constrained by the need to pass through Hormuz and use ship-to-ship transfers near Fujairah, a risky and expensive route.Iraq and Kuwait are making a gradual comeback to the market. Iraq supplied India with almost 1 million b/d before the crisis, but its flows virtually disappeared in March and April before recovering to 165,000 b/d in August. Kuwait similarly re-emerged with 90,000 b/d after disappearing completely from India’s imports between March and July. More distant producers are also contributing: Brazil and Venezuela together supplied 450,000 b/d in August, up from 420,000 b/d in July, highlighting India’s strategy of gradually diversifying its crude sources.September is nevertheless shaping up to be a difficult month for crude buyers. Asian fuel margins remain high and have little visible reason to decline until refinery operations in China, South Korea and other processing centers return to pre-crisis volumes. Continued instability around Middle Eastern maritime chokepoints is simultaneously constraining regional crude supply, forcing buyers to compete more aggressively for barrels offering reliable physical delivery. Russian crude is already trading at parity with dated Brent (or at a small premium to ICE Brent), suggesting cheap alternatives to Middle Eastern barrels have disappeared. What began as an August decline in Indian imports increasingly resembles the opening stage of a problematic and unstable autumn for oil markets.By Natalia Katona for Oilprice.comMore Top Reads From Oilprice.comVenezuela Helped Build OPEC. Now It May Help Break It ApartQatar Extends Force Majeure as Hormuz Crisis Still Blocks LNG TrafficMIT Uses AI to Challenge a Century-Old Process for Mass Ammonia Production