Russia Seeks to Destroy and Depopulate Odesa. Can It Withstand the Pressure?

Odesa is Ukraine’s key Black Sea port, a city of one million people, and a major industrial and resort center. Every year, tons of grain and metallurgical products are exported from here. This is Ukraine’s maritime gateway. Three major ports in and around the city provide key routes for Ukrainian exports, which create jobs across the country and generate an inflow of foreign currency.JOIN US ON TELEGRAMFollow our coverage of the war on the @Kyivpost_official. From the very first day of the full-scale invasion, Odesa became one of Russia’s priority targets. Russian forces tried to reach Odesa by land but were defeated near Mykolaiv, a major city 150 kilometers (93 miles) to the northeast. They then turned to a naval blockade of the city. However, after the sinking of the cruiser Moskva and the liberation of Snake Island – a key position in the Black Sea – maritime trade resumed. Nevertheless, as part of its attempts to destroy Ukraine’s entire trading sector, Russia resumed attacks on the city and port in 2026. Firefighter Vladyslav Prykhodko is one of those who regularly deal with the aftermath of Russian strikes on Odesa’s civilian infrastructure. He says what is happening now is very different from his work during “peacetime.” Sgt. Vladyslav Prykhodko prepares himself for working his morning shift at his fire station. (Photo by Sergii Kostezh/Kyiv Post) Other Topics of Interest Confirmed Russian War Dead Top a Quarter Million The actual figure is probably at least twice that. Ukrainian and British army estimates concur that Russian combat losses are massive and increasing daily. “The difference is that at any moment a missile or a Shahed could appear, posing a threat to our lives and the lives of civilians. The difference is that in normal times, we simply have an established procedure for dealing with a fire. But during shelling, we have to react very quickly and everything is always different. There was a strike near the radio market, there were several strikes there, there was a dormitory, it was hit, we went up in the ‘basket’ to put out the fire in the building, and we received an air-raid alert that there had been further missile launches, so we moved away from the building as quickly as possible,” Prykhodko says. Sgt. Vladyslav Prykhodko standing by his vehicle (Photo by Sergii Kostezh/Kyiv Post) Everything is being used – loitering munitions, KAB guided aerial bombs, drones, and missiles. Strikes occur every day. Sometimes there are days when the number of hours under air-raid alerts exceeds the number of hours without them, with dozens of targets heading toward Odesa. Wounded people after missile strike on residential building in Odesa (Photo by Odesa region administration/Facebook) Russian forces often attack chaotically, hitting everything in their path. Shopping centers and residential buildings come under attack, including this high-rise not far from the coast. Like this one on the coast, being stroked directly in apartment during the night of Sept. 12th. Apartment building on the Odesa coast after the Russian missile strike (Photo by Odesa region administration/Facebook) “The hardest thing is the moral… the psychological situation. When you are at a fire or clearing rubble, you don’t think about whether you have any strength left or anything else – you just work. The hardest thing is that people are waiting for you to reach their relatives. People are waiting and hoping that everything will be all right with their loved ones,” Prykhodko says. Student’s condominium destroyed by Russian missile in Odesa (Photo by Sergii Kostezh/Kyiv Post) Vladyslav’s supervisor, Denys Voronin, says people work around the clock. Some become exhausted, but no one wants to stop or give up. “Why is the enemy doing this? It is difficult to understand. There are repeated strikes. A strike hits a residential area or infrastructure, we go there, and then there is another strike in the same place – to harm the rescuers – firefighters, medics, those who come to help. The guys take 24-hour shifts. My schedule is somewhat different because I am the deputy head of the unit. I go with them to all major fires and strikes. It is difficult for us, but we work as one mechanism,” Voronin says. Denys Voronin, deputy head of firestation in Odesa (Photo by Sergii Kostezh/Kyiv Post) The Russians’ main target is the port. As a result of the attacks, shipping has been disrupted, more than 300 vessels have been damaged or destroyed, and hundreds of sailors have been wounded, with some killed, says Dmytro Barinov, president of the Ukrainian Ports Association. “During this time, more than 300 vessels have been damaged or completely or partially destroyed. And, as we have already said, they have intensified this kind of hunting. I can use that word: they are hunting civilian vessels flying foreign flags with international crews, citizens of different countries,” Barinov says. Dmytro Barinov, president of the Ukrainian Ports Association (Photo by Sergii Kostezh/Kyiv Post) He says this is not only a Ukrainian problem, but a global one. “It is not only about agricultural products, but also iron ore. We are a major producer and exporter of such commodities. You know, when there was a complete blockade in 2022, the price of wheat on the New York Stock Exchange immediately jumped by 25%. Now Ukraine is not present on the agricultural market. And neither is Russia, because at that time, in 2022, Russia was still trading. But now – no. That is why one-third of global wheat production and consumption is blocked. It was intended for certain regions, such as Turkey, North Africa, Tunisia, Algeria, Morocco, Egypt, and the Middle East. That is why I think this will also have a negative impact on the global economy,” Barinov says. The question is whether exports can be redirected to other ports until effective protection of Odesa is ensured. Options for exporting through Danube ports or transporting grain out of Ukraine by rail or truck have been discussed. However, Barinov is skeptical, saying the capacity of the ports is so large that it is unlikely to be replaced by other means. “I will give you a very simple example. One vessel, even not a very large one, is 100,000 tons. That is Cape-size. Or somewhere between Panamax and Cape-size. So, we can load it within three days. Then the vessel goes to its destination. If you calculate it in terms of trucks, that means 5,000 trucks. Can you imagine? That is 5,000 drivers, 5,000 sets of documents, and 5,000 border-crossing procedures. If we calculate it in terms of smaller vessels that can reach the Danube region through the Sulina Canal, where the draft is limited to 7.2 meters [23 feet], it costs money. Again, that means 20 or 30 vessels, 20 or 30 pilotage procedures. Romania has become a member of the Schengen Area, so their procedures have become more complicated and take more time,” Barinov says. The situation is frightening for some residents, and they are trying to leave, says local historian and activist Vladyslav Balynskyi. He believes the strikes are part of a strategy aimed not only at the economy but also at the Ukrainian population of Odesa more broadly. “I travel a lot, and I can say this not only about Odesa, but also about Maiac, on the border with Moldova. I see that after large-scale shelling, the flow of cars leaving Odesa increases. People are still frightened by this. As for the strikes on the port, it is clearly an attempt by Russia to stop grain exports. But as for the shelling on the historic center of the city, I don’t understand it. But if we proceed from the logic we have seen over the past 12 years, then this is simply genocide, an attempt to destroy Ukraine within its borders, to intimidate and drive people out so that there would be a desert here. Ukrainians as such are not needed by it, and it seems that people in Odesa have understood this,” Balynskyi says. Activist Vladyslav Balynskyi (Photo by Sergii Kostezh/Kyiv Post) Nevertheless, most residents remain. Odesa’s entire social sphere continues to operate, as do public transport, restaurants, bars, and most of its industry, like Odesa opera. People have fun nearby the Opera fountains (Photo by Sergii Kostezh/Kyiv Post) People continue to go to the theater and take tourists to the beach even in September. People on popular “Dolphin Beach” in Odesa (Photo by Sergii Kostezh/Kyiv Post) Russian strikes are causing casualties and damage, but Odesa is not prepared to give up, while Ukraine is looking for ways to unblock shipping. What could they be? Our sources identify two options – either a ceasefire on terms that include a halt to strikes on the ports or strong US and European sanctions against Russia that would force it to end the endless war.