Russia Pretends to Negotiate: Washington Must Change Moscow’s Calculation

Russia continues to tell Washington that it is open to peace even as its demands remain unchanged and its military campaign against Ukraine intensifies. That contradiction should shape the next stage of diplomacy. If Moscow still believes that continued attacks and the passage of time can produce better terms at the negotiating table, diplomatic contact alone is not evidence that Russia is moving toward ending the war. On Sept. 5, Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner spent more than three hours with Vladimir Putin in Moscow before traveling to Kyiv with proposals to narrow the gap. Although the Kremlin called the meeting “highly useful,” it produced no breakthrough. Moscow continued to demand that Ukraine surrender four regions Russia does not fully control and abandon its NATO aspirations – asking diplomacy to deliver concessions it has not secured militarily.JOIN US ON TELEGRAMFollow our coverage of the war on the @Kyivpost_official. After Secretary of State Marco Rubio met Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov in New York on Sept. 23, Rubio said Russia and Ukraine had expressed interest in a limited ceasefire involving energy and grain. The talks produced no agreement, while Lavrov said Moscow would not pause military operations during negotiations in any format. A limited ceasefire would not end the war. It would, however, show whether Russia is prepared to reduce – and eventually end – the force it uses while peace is discussed. Instead, the night after the Rubio-Lavrov talks, Russia launched 282 drones and other weapons, including ballistic and hypersonic missiles. Eight people were killed: two in Kyiv, where a maternity hospital was damaged, and six agricultural workers at a farm in the Kharkiv region. Other Topics of Interest Kulbergs’ Pro-Ukraine Party Wins Latvian Election The centrist United List secured 36.6% of the vote, defeating pro-Russian rivals while ruling out a coalition with the populist Latvia First. Those attacks were not isolated. In the first three weeks of September, Russia launched roughly 2,100 jet-powered Shahed-type drones and 136 missiles, killing 288 people, including children. The jet-powered drones fly faster and higher than older variants, while Ukraine’s interception rate against them has fallen to about 60%, versus roughly 90% for propeller-driven models. The shift matters because Russia is adapting its air campaign to make the pressure harder for Ukraine to absorb. Taken together, unchanged demands, refusal to pause hostilities, continued attacks, and investment in weapons that make a prolonged strike campaign more sustainable form a pattern that is difficult to dismiss. Moscow still appears to believe that time and military force can improve its negotiating position. Russia does not need diplomacy to end the war; it needs diplomacy to advance Russian interests. Access to Washington gives Moscow another route to press territorial and political terms it has not achieved on the battlefield, seek sanctions relief and renewed economic ties, and encourage US pressure on Kyiv to accept conditions closer to Russia’s demands. Russia does not need diplomacy to end the war; it needs diplomacy to advance Russian interests.The Trump administration has invited Putin to the December G20 summit in Miami. A bipartisan group of 14 senators urged the president to rescind the invitation, warning that admitting Putin while Russia continues attacking Ukrainian civilians risks legitimizing and normalizing the Kremlin without corresponding changes in its conduct. That invitation makes the next question immediate: what should Washington do if Moscow’s conduct does not change?Washington now has a concrete instrument to test whether leverage can change Moscow’s calculation. On Sept. 18, President Trump signed the Lindsey O. Graham Sanctioning Russia and Iran Act of 2026. The Senate passed it 86-11 and the House 262-159. The law expands sanctions, tariffs, and prohibitions on Russia and reaches financial, energy, and commercial channels that sustain its war economy. It also targets sanctions evasion, including transactions involving Russian-origin oil and shadow-fleet vessels.Passage is only the beginning. Russia has built networks designed to preserve wartime revenue despite restrictions. Strategic and decisive implementation should reduce the revenues and commercial channels that make a prolonged war sustainable and make clear that economic relief follows measurable movement toward ending the war, not merely another round of talks.Economic pressure should be reinforced by military support that prevents Moscow from assuming Ukraine will become easier to coerce with time. The administration has now committed most of the $400 million Congress approved through the Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative, and that assistance should reach Ukraine as quickly as possible. Combined with US licensing for Patriot-interceptor production in Ukraine, immediate military assistance would add leverage by limiting what Russia can achieve through continued attacks and reducing Moscow’s incentive to wait for better terms.Reagan’s “peace through strength” principle was not that strength replaces diplomacy, but that strength gives diplomacy credibility. President Trump now has the authority to apply that principle. The administration should implement the new sanctions law strategically and decisively, while sustaining the military support necessary to strengthen Washington’s leverage and Ukraine’s position at the negotiating table. The goal is straightforward: confront Moscow with a reality it can no longer postpone – continuing the war must become more costly than ending it. The views expressed in this opinion article are the author’s and not necessarily those of Kyiv Post. Anna KuzmenkoAnna Kuzmenko is a Ukrainian-American advocate based in Northern California engaged in US-Ukraine advocacy efforts focused on security, policy, and strategic cooperation arising from Russia’s war against Ukraine. Originally from Ukraine, she supported the Revolution of Dignity in Kyiv in 2014 and remains actively involved in initiatives that strengthen dialogue between Ukraine and the United States on issues of defense, innovation, and democratic resilience.