Russia May Use Oleshky Truce to Rebuild Forces – ISW

Russia could use the humanitarian ceasefire around occupied Oleshky to rebuild its forces in the Kherson region, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) warned in its assessment published on Wednesday, Oct. 28.The Washington-based institute outlined the risk in its latest assessment, which also raised concerns about the treatment of Ukrainian civilians choosing to evacuate.JOIN US ON TELEGRAMFollow our coverage of the war on the @Kyivpost_official.“Russian forces may use the limited ceasefire to reconstitute their forces in Kherson Oblast,” analysts wrote.ISW questioned whether Russian authorities would allow residents a genuine, coercion-free choice to reach Ukrainian-controlled territory.Russian Defense Minister Andrei Belousov inspected the “Dnepr” grouping of forces on Oct. 27 and met its commander, Colonel General Mikhail Teplinsky. Russia’s defense ministry said commanders briefed him on battlefield conditions, drone operations and equipment deliveries.Evacuation route passes through Russia, BelarusThe reported evacuation arrangements envisage taking residents seeking to reach Ukrainian-controlled territory through Russia and Belarus.Under details reported by RBC-Ukraine, citing agreement pages published by Fox News, evacuees would first travel to Anapa in Russia’s Krasnodar region.They would then fly to Gomel, Belarus, aboard a Russian defense ministry military transport plane. The flight is scheduled for Oct. 31, with Ukrainian ombudsman Dmytro Lubinets and members of his team accompanying the evacuees. Other Topics of Interest US Midterms: a Debacle for Trump? The US midterms take place in just a few days’ time: on 3 November the House of Representatives and a third of the Senate will be up for election. ISW noted that the published agreement pages did not explain how residents and the Ukrainian delegation would subsequently travel from Belarus to Ukrainian-controlled territory.The White House’s Oct. 23 announcement said residents wishing to leave would receive transportation to their preferred destination.It also said civilian representatives from Ukraine and Russia would visit residents at home to assess their needs, while US journalists would accompany the teams to document the operation and residents’ choices.President Volodymyr Zelensky has previously raised concerns that Russia could manipulate demining arrangements to channel evacuees toward Russian-controlled territory.Ukrainian delegation heads toward OleshkyPreparations for the humanitarian mission continued on Thursday, Oct. 29, when a Ukrainian delegation to Oleshky, led by Lubinets, departed.David Arakhamia, head of the Servant of the People parliamentary faction, announced the departure and said updates would follow when communications became available.In a separate morning update, Lubinets said the ceasefire had held for 54 hours without recorded violations. Mine clearance was continuing, and humanitarian supplies were being assembled for delivery on Friday, Oct. 30.He said preparations were being coordinated with Russian representative Yana Lantratova, with assistance from US First Lady Melania Trump.The operation involves clearing access routes, delivering essential supplies and establishing conditions for civilians to leave safely.The ceasefire began at 3 a.m. Kyiv time on Oct. 27 and is scheduled to remain in force until 10:59 p.m. on Nov. 1.Civilians face shortages after years of occupationRussia has occupied Oleshky since the opening stages of its full-scale invasion in 2022.The White House estimates that 1,700-2,000 residents remain, including about 50 children, down from a prewar population of roughly 24,000. It acknowledged that no formal demographic count has been conducted since 2022.Residents, many of them elderly, face shortages of food, clean water and medicine, limited electricity and heavily mined roads.The pause has also brought a rare respite to Kherson, across the Dnipro River on Ukrainian-controlled territory.Residents ventured outdoors, while municipal workers used the quieter conditions to clear debris, board up windows and repair roofs in riverside neighborhoods. Workers continued wearing protective equipment and carrying drone detectors as they carried out repairs. Kyiv Post is Ukraine’s first and oldest English news organization, reporting since 1995. Its international reach – 90% of readers are outside of Ukraine – make it truly Ukraine’s global voice.