Russia Lost Ground Despite Putin’s Claims of Major Advances, ISW Says

Russian forces have suffered a net loss of controlled territory since March, according to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), challenging President Vladimir Putin’s claims of accelerating battlefield advances.In its report published Thursday, Oct. 1, the Washington-based think tank said Russia’s rate of territorial advance declined significantly in March and has since remained low or even negative.JOIN US ON TELEGRAMFollow our coverage of the war on the @Kyivpost_official.After adjusting for territory liberated during Ukraine’s Operation Vivaldi, ISW calculated that Russian forces had lost control of a net 293.59 square kilometers (113.36 square miles) across the front since March.A separate calculation that includes areas of Russian infiltration, where Moscow has not established full control, shows a net expansion of Russia’s presence by 174.44 square kilometers (67.35 square miles) over the same period.September mapping shows Russian lossesISW’s September mapping recorded Russian gains of 175.54 square kilometers (67.78 square miles) of Ukrainian territory and losses of 256.35 square kilometers (98.98 square miles).That represents a net Russian territorial loss of 80.81 square kilometers (31.20 square miles), equivalent to an average of 2.69 square kilometers (1.04 square miles) per day.A separate measure that includes areas of infiltration shows a larger net Russian loss.Under that methodology, Russian forces seized or infiltrated 143.2 square kilometers (55.29 square miles) while losing 318.38 square kilometers (122.93 square miles) – a net loss of 175.18 square kilometers (67.64 square miles). Other Topics of Interest ‘No Rules Now’: Putin Orders Civilian Attacks, Zelensky Says Ukrainian intelligence reportedly intercepted communications ordering Russian forces to abandon earlier limits on aerial attacks. ISW cautioned that the September figures include Ukrainian gains from Operation Vivaldi that occurred over several preceding months but became publicly known only in September.Ukraine maintained operational secrecy around the counteroffensive, making it difficult for open-source analysts to determine precisely when some territory changed hands.Operation Vivaldi complicates monthly comparisonsUkraine’s 3rd Army Corps conducted Operation Vivaldi in the Lyman sector of the Donetsk region, disrupting Russian plans to advance toward Sloviansk and encircle Ukraine’s fortified defensive belt from the east.ISW has confirmed the liberation of at least 147 square kilometers (57 square miles) during the operation.Ukrainian commanders put the figure higher. Brig. Gen. Andriy Biletsky, commander of the 3rd Army Corps, said Ukrainian forces had reclaimed 176 square kilometers (68 square miles), liberated five settlements and captured more than 250 Russian soldiers during the operation’s first three stages.President Volodymyr Zelensky later said Ukraine was preparing a fourth phase of the counteroffensive.ISW said Ukraine’s effective operational security would probably make future month-to-month assessments of territorial changes similarly difficult.Putin claims accelerating advancesISW’s assessment contrasts with Putin’s description of accelerating Russian advances.Speaking at the Valdai Discussion Club on Thursday, Putin claimed that Russian forces had brought 1,301 square kilometers (502 square miles) of Ukrainian territory under their control in September alone.“In September alone, Russia brought 1,301 square kilometers (502 square miles) under control,” Putin said, claiming the figure was 2.5 times the level in previous months.The Kremlin did not provide independently verifiable evidence supporting the figure.Putin’s figure is more than seven times the 175.54 square kilometers (67.78 square miles) of Russian gains recorded in ISW’s September mapping.ISW’s mapping instead recorded a net reduction of approximately 81 square kilometers (31 square miles) in Russian-controlled territory. However, the delayed confirmation of Ukrainian advances means that change cannot be attributed entirely to fighting in September.The institute has repeatedly accused the Kremlin and senior Russian commanders of exaggerating battlefield advances to portray a Russian victory as inevitable and pressure Ukraine and its partners into accepting Moscow’s demands.The latest figures continue a trend Kyiv Post reported in May, when Russian forces recorded their first monthly net territorial loss since Ukraine’s 2024 operation in Russia’s Kursk region. Kyiv Post is Ukraine’s first and oldest English news organization, reporting since 1995. Its international reach – 97% of readers are outside of Ukraine – make it truly Ukraine’s global voice.