Russia, Iran Partner to Counter US Arms Crackdown as Missile Threat to Europe Grows: ISW

Russia and Iran are coordinating efforts to counter a new US operation targeting weapons shipments to Tehran, while Iran has formally abandoned its self-imposed missile-range limit, potentially widening the threat to American military facilities in Europe, according to a Nov. 10 assessment by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) and Critical Threats Project (CTP). The assessment identifies several developments involving Russian-Iranian military cooperation, maritime supply routes, Iranian missile capabilities and threats against US installations.JOIN US ON TELEGRAMFollow our coverage of the war on the @Kyivpost_official. Russia and Iran seek to preserve Caspian arms corridor Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Kazem Gharibabadi announced Tuesday, Nov. 10, that he had met with Russia’s ambassador to Tehran to discuss countering Task Force Iron Gate, a new US military initiative designed to disrupt weapons shipments to Iran. US Central Command established the task force on Nov. 7 to prevent Tehran from importing advanced weapons and other materials through the Caspian Sea and overland corridors. According to ISW-CTP, Russia has used the Caspian Sea to transport weapons to Iran, including during the 2026 US-Israel-Iran war. The analysts published a map documenting port visits by Russian-flagged vessels sanctioned by the US Treasury’s Office of Foreign Assets Control between April 1 and Nov. 10, illustrating extensive maritime traffic between Russian and Iranian ports. The Caspian Sea has become a strategic supply corridor between Moscow and Tehran, allowing the two countries to transport military-related cargo through an inland waterway inaccessible to Western naval forces. Other Topics of Interest Russia Misled US Negotiators About Territorial Control in Donbas, Zelensky Says Zelensky says Putin believes Russia can seize eastern Ukraine within months. The Ukrainian president warns Washington against easing sanctions on Moscow. The route has taken on greater importance as Russia and Iran deepen their military cooperation. Tehran previously supplied Moscow with drones and technology used to establish Shahed production facilities in Russia. Moscow, in turn, has reportedly supplied military equipment to Iran as Tehran seeks to rebuild capabilities damaged during its war with the US and Israel. Unlike the Black Sea, the landlocked Caspian allows Russian vessels to travel from ports such as Astrakhan and Olya to Iranian ports without passing through maritime chokepoints controlled by Western countries. The corridor provides both governments with an alternative to more exposed shipping routes, although the contents of individual shipments remain difficult to verify. The shipping network has already become a target of Ukrainian military operations. On July 25, Ukraine’s Security Service (SBU) launched long-range drone strikes against Russian military and logistics assets in the Caspian Sea, targeting two sanctioned cargo vessels, Port Olya 2 and Begey, which Kyiv said were transporting military supplies between Russia and Iran. The operation also struck a Russian missile boat and an offshore oil production platform at the Filanovsky field. President Volodymyr Zelensky confirmed the operation, describing the results as successful and emphasizing Ukraine’s efforts to disrupt military shipments involving Iran. The strikes triggered an angry response from Tehran. Iran summoned Ukraine’s chargé d’affaires in Tehran, condemned the attack as an act of aggression and threatened to take retaliatory measures. As Kyiv Post reported, Tehran warned that it reserved the right to defend its national interests and security. The diplomatic confrontation intensified after pro-Iranian channels circulated maps suggesting that Iranian ballistic missiles could reach Ukrainian territory, although the warnings were not confirmed as official military threats. Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha rejected Iran’s accusations, describing Tehran as a direct accomplice in Russia’s war against Ukraine because of its military support for Moscow. However, Kyiv subsequently signaled that it wanted to avoid further escalation with Iran. The July operation demonstrated that the Caspian corridor, while inaccessible to Western naval forces, was not beyond Ukraine’s long-range strike capabilities. The attacks exposed vulnerabilities in a maritime supply network that Moscow and Tehran increasingly rely on for military cooperation. The new US initiative now places additional pressure on those same corridors, as Washington moves to disrupt Russian arms transfers to Iran through maritime and overland routes. Iran abandons missile-range limit, raising threat to Europe In a separate development, ISW-CTP reported that Iran has formally abandoned its self-imposed 2,000-kilometer (1,250-mile) limit on ballistic missile ranges, potentially expanding the threat to European countries hosting US and NATO military facilities. Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) spokesperson Brig. Gen. Hossein Mohebbi announced the decision on Nov. 7, following an Oct. 30 directive from Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei calling for maximum deterrence and retaliation against threats “without geographical limitations.” The decision means Tehran no longer considers itself bound by its previous restriction on how far its ballistic missiles can travel, opening the possibility of developing or deploying weapons capable of striking targets deeper inside Europe. Even under the previous 2,000-kilometer limit, Iranian missiles could reach parts of southeastern Europe, including Greece, Bulgaria, Romania and several Balkan countries. Longer-range missiles could extend that reach into central and western Europe, potentially placing additional NATO installations, air bases and other military facilities within striking distance. The development is particularly significant for European countries hosting American forces. In a future confrontation between Iran and the US, military installations on European territory could become potential targets of Iranian retaliation, even if those countries were not directly involved in an initial attack. ISW-CTP said Tehran had already demonstrated its willingness to attempt strikes beyond its previously declared range. In March, Iran reportedly launched two ballistic missiles toward Diego Garcia, a joint US-UK military base in the Indian Ocean approximately 3,800 kilometers from Iran’s southern border. One missile failed during flight, while the other was intercepted at an undisclosed location. Their actual flight distances remain unclear, and Iran denied responsibility for the attempted attack. According to ISW-CTP, Iran could increase the range of some existing missiles without developing entirely new weapons by reducing warhead weight and adjusting other technical parameters. However, lifting the restriction does not mean Iran has already deployed missiles capable of reaching all of Europe. The extent of its operational longer-range capabilities remains uncertain. Nevertheless, several US military bases in Europe are already within range of existing Iranian missile systems, according to ISW-CTP. The removal of Tehran’s missile-range limit raises the prospect of a wider threat to European security, potentially exposing more NATO territory and American military installations to Iranian strikes in any future confrontation with Washington.