Russia could attack Nato within WEEKS, US intelligence warns as Putin ‘aims to test alliance amid weapons shortage’

RUSSIA could attack Nato within weeks, according to new US intelligence reports. US officials fear Vladimir Putin is plotting a small-scale land incursion to test the alliance as he faces daily humiliating attacks on his doorstep. US officials have warned that Russia could launch an attack on Nato Credit: AFP British paratroopers exit an American Chinook during drills less than 50km from the Russian border in Finland Credit: PA A Russian rocket launch system Uragan firing at an undisclosed location in Ukraine Credit: EPA Firefighters put out a fire after Russian missiles hit a warehouse in Kyiv Credit: AP Until now, US intelligence believed Putin would not risk provoking Nato while fighting in Ukraine. But the assessment has changed this year, The Wall Street Journal reports. Sign up for The Sun newsletter Thank you! Possible threats include a cyberattack on a Nato country, sending armed groups to occupy territory or a limited incursion on the alliance’s eastern flank. Putin could test Nato with a possible attack at any point between autumn this year and 2029, the report said. One theory is Putin could grab a city in Poland, or one of the three Baltic states – Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania, all Nato nations which have strongly backed Ukraine during the war. Lithuanian President Gitanas Nausėda warned recently: “I cannot deny that we have such information and that it concerns kinetic operations. “Not on a large scale, but targeted kinetic operations that are very likely to be directed against critical infrastructure.” And on Thursday, Lithuania’s defence minister said Russia is planning to use Ukrainian-made drones to attack the Baltics in a “false flag” hit. Most read in The Sun A British paratrooper (right) with a Finnish soldier and Italian forces during drills in Finland Credit: PA The launch of Russia’s Sarmat heavy liquid-fuelled intercontinental ballistic missile Credit: AFP Russian opposition politician Garry Kasparov believes Putin will launch a “small incursion” into Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania or Poland. He added: “I think the chances are growing because Putin needs a winning narrative and Ukraine doesn’t offer it.” Putin might try to grab limited Nato territory in the Baltics to claim he has scored a victory against the West. All three Baltic states have strengthened their border defences against Russia and close ally Belarus. Nato spokesman Colonel Martin O’Donnell said: “We are always thinking through and preparing for any number of scenarios. “Nato is watching and we are ready to deter and defend as necessary.” A land incursion has previously been considered highly unlikely as it would trigger Nato’s Article 5 – meanig an attack against one ally is considered an attack against all members. Nato members believe Putin is already conducting probing attacks to test the alliance. People take shelter in an underground car park during an air raid alert in Vilnius, Lithuania Credit: AP A warning of a possible air raid, in Vilnius on May 20, 2026 Credit: AFP The bomb-laden device found near a Ukrainian cargo jet in Germany Credit: BILD Fotoservice Police inspecting the site at Leipzig/Halle Airport in Germany Credit: Getty This includes Russian drones flying into Romania. The Nato member has faced dozens of incursions by unmanned aerial vehicles since the outbreak of Russia‘s war in Ukraine. Recently, Western fighter jets have been scrambled three times to shoot down drones. Fighter jets were scrambled 250 per cent more in July compared with a year ago as Russia probes the West’s defences. “The numbers do not lie,” NATO’s Allied Joint Force Command Brunssum said. And just days ago, an explosives-laden drone was found beside a Ukrainian Antonov An-124 cargo aircraft at Leipzig/Halle Airport in Germany in a possible Russian provocation. Police deployed a bomb disposal robot to inspect the drone and found it had been equipped with professional explosives and a detonator. If it had exploded then the blast could have not only injured those nearby but also set light to the aircraft, its fuel and the ammo inside. A Romanian F-16 fighter jet flies during an air policing exercise at Borcea Air Base 86 Credit: AP In Lithuania, air raid alerts were issued earlier this year after a drone flew close to the border in neighbouring Belarus. The US intelligence assessment comes amid US concern about a shortfall of munitions after supplies to Ukraine and use in the Middle East conflict. But Trump hit back at reports of weapons shortages, saying: “The US has massive amounts of ‘munitions,’ especially of certain types. “Additionally, large amounts are being manufactured and shipped to the US as needed.” Wes Streeting this week warned that Russian provocations against the UK were just the “tip of the iceberg”. On his first day as Defence Secretary a Russian warship opened fire as it steamed towards the Channel. The frigate Neustrashimy spent 30 minutes blasting shells as big as traffic bollards into waters off the coast of Plymouth. He told The Sun: “Incidents like the shooting in the Channel are performative, irresponsible and designed to provoke. “It does at least provide the British with a visible manifestation of the provocations we see from Russia every day.” Comment now