Rules-based disorder: why prediction markets struggle if reality is contested

The article delves into the challenges faced by prediction markets when real-world events are unclear or disputed. While these platforms allow users to wager on potential outcomes, the ambiguity of events creates confusion over what actually constitutes the "correct" result. This struggle underscores broader issues about how societies determine truth and consensus, especially in times of political and social upheaval. The implications suggest that as long as reality remains contested, the reliability and utility of prediction markets will continue to be questioned.