Ronda Rousey vs Gina Carano: MVP MMA tips, odds, and betting predictions

THE first-ever MMA fight on Netflix is almost upon us. Headlined by two of the sport’s biggest female trailblazers and legendary veterans: Ronda Rousey and Gina Carano, it’s promising to be something special. Years after helping bring women’s MMA into the mainstream, both icons return for one final showdown, which Rousey called the perfect way to end her career. Legacy and pride are both on the line this time, and we’re all here for it. Quick tips for Ronda Rousey vs Gina Carano Rousey to win in round #1 – Evens with Betfred Total Rounds: Over 1.5 – 13/8 with Playzee Carano to win by decision – 22/1 with BetMGM 📝 Ronda Rousey vs Gina Carano odds Ronda Rousey enters the match-up as a commanding 2/13 favourite, reflecting her UFC championship pedigree and far more recent experience at the elite level. Meanwhile, Gina Carano is priced at 15/4, with bookies factoring in her massive 17-year absence from professional MMA competition. Still, Carano’s proven striking ability makes her an intriguing underdog option for value bettors chasing a major upset in this historic showdown. Ronda Rousey to win – 2/13 at bet365 Gina Carano to win – 15/4 at bet365 🛣️ The road to Los Angeles: How the fight was made The path to this blockbuster began when Most Valuable Promotions partnered with Netflix to stage a global spectacle worthy of the best MMA fights in history. With the streaming giant entering live MMA for the first time, the promotion needed a headline fight built on strong legacy and name recognition, and few names carry that weight like Ronda Rousey and Gina Carano. For Rousey, the comeback is about reclaiming the ending she never truly got. After openly discussing the neurological and vision problems that affected her during the closing stretch of her UFC career, she sees this bout as an opportunity to compete on her own terms one final time. Carano’s motivation is different but equally compelling, as she returns at 44, after being away from MMA for nearly two decades, having rebuilt both her physical conditioning and mental focus outside the spotlight. The matchup itself delivers a classic clash of styles. Rousey’s Olympic-level judo, relentless grappling pressure, and iconic armbar submissions collide with Carano’s crisp Muay Thai foundation and proven striking power. It is the sport’s most influential grappler against one of its original striking stars. And while both may be well past their prime, we do not for a moment doubt their eagerness to give it their all and provide us all with a spectacle. Can Ronda Rousey close the chapter perfectly? Rousey enters this fight with an impressive 12-2 professional record (9 submissions), which would be even better if her neurological problems hadn’t halted her 12-0 run and forced her into early retirement. The former UFC champion stands at 5’7″ with a 68-inch reach, and even at 39, still possesses the elite judo pedigree and honed submission instincts that made her one of the most dominant finishers in MMA history. Expect her to pressure aggressively from the opening bell, hunting clinches, throws, and her trademark armbar move at every opportunity. More than anything, motivation could be her greatest weapon, with Rousey openly framing this match as the pinnacle of her comeback story, and very likely the final fight of her combat sports career. Can Gina Carano complete the ultimate comeback? Carano returns to MMA after nearly two decades of absence at 44 years old to try and build on her 7-1 record. She stands 5’8″ tall and has a 66.5-inch reach. Although she has not competed professionally since 2009, reports surrounding her Las Vegas training camp suggest she has returned in outstanding physical condition. The key question is whether sheer willpower and training can make up for such a lengthy absence, no matter how fit she has kept herself over the years. And doubly so when she’s up against an also ageing but still five years younger and elite grappler like Rousey. Her route to victory is clear: keep the fight standing, use quick Muay Thai combinations, and avoid being dragged into Rousey’s grappling exchanges. Much like Strickland did against Chimaev, if Carano can consistently defend takedowns early, her striking power and precision may just see her take home the unlikely win. 📋 Ronda Rousey vs Gina Carano betting tips With Ronda Rousey heavily favoured outright, the smarter betting angles may lie in method-of-victory and round markets, especially given the contrasting styles and unpredictable nature of Gina Carano’s return after such a long absence. If you’re looking for the best UFC betting sites to place your wagers, several big UK bookies like Betfred are offering competitive odds on the fight. Rousey to win in round #1 Rousey’s fastest path to victory has always been overwhelming opponents early before they can settle into striking exchanges. Against a returning Carano, we can expect aggressive clinching and takedown attempts from the opening minute. If Rousey gets top control, her trademark armbar will likely end the fight, as it remains one of the most dangerous submission weapons in MMA history. Rather than backing the extremely short outright price, targeting an early match finish offers far stronger value for bettors expecting a vintage performance from the former UFC champion. Evens aren’t exactly stellar money, but considering the overwhelming opinion that if Rousey is to win, it will be with an early takedown, you may as well make this bet instead of going for the outright. ➡️ Bet on Ronda Rousey to win in Round 1 at evens with Betfred Total Rounds: Over 1.5 While everyone is expecting a short match that will likely go in Rousey’s favour with a takedown, there is some merit to giving Carano credit to extend it. If she can survive the first two rounds (especially the first), anything’s possible. While the odds here are low enough (9/7) that the payoff isn`t great, we feel like this is one of the safer bets for anyone who believes Carano can avoid the early onslaught. If you’re feeling brave, you can also extend this to over 2.5 rounds for a much better 12/5 payout, but at that point, you may as well be looking into one of the better-paying options for wins by decision. ➡️ Bet on the match to last over 1.5 rounds at odds of 9/7 with Playzee Carano to win by decision Carano’s clearest route to an upset comes through disciplined striking and forcing Rousey into uncomfortable exchanges at range. While an early submission is an ever-present danger, Carano’s Muay Thai background and natural power could become increasingly dangerous if she survives the early grappling pressure. Again, as with the Strickland-Chimaev match-up, a decision victory for Carano is a possible long-shot angle for bettors who believe Rousey’s pace may slow in later rounds, particularly after years away from full-time competition. While a Carano KO or TKO victory is rated as more likely by the bookies, the real money comes from her winning the long game by decision. ➡️ Bet on Gina Carano to win by decision at odds 22/1 with BetMGM 🥊 MVP MMA undercard betting tips While the spotlight is undoubtedly on two female MMA legends returning for an epic clash, there are definitely some great fights and big names worth checking out on the undercard for the main event. If nothing else, these may be good for using up the latest free bets and sign-up offers at popular UK betting sites. Here is a betting tip from us for each of the three supporting fights. Francis Ngannou to win in round #2 The matchup between Francis Ngannou and Philipe Lins feels tailor-made for an explosive finish. Ngannou remains one of the hardest punchers MMA has ever seen, while Lins has historically struggled against elite heavyweight pressure and power. Most bookmakers expect an early stoppage, and it is difficult to argue otherwise given Ngannou’s ability to end fights with a single exchange. Rather than backing the massive moneyline, though, target a second -round finish for a far better value. If you don’t think Lins will last even that long, Ngannou winning in round one still offers better odds (5/6) than the match not going past the first round (4/6). ➡️ Bet on Francis Ngannou to win in Round 2 at odds of 10/3 with Betfred Diaz vs Perry – Total Rounds: Under 3.5 Mike Perry versus Nate Diaz has all the ingredients for the most entertaining fight on the card. Diaz’s durability and volume remain dangerous, but Perry’s activity, physicality, and recent bare-knuckle success make him the more reliable pick. Diaz has often struggled against stronger welterweights capable of pressuring him physically, and Perry’s aggression could overwhelm him in prolonged exchanges. While backing an outright win for Perry isn’t very profitable, having the match last under 2.5 rounds is. If you’re not so sure, you could prolong it to at least 3 rounds with Under 3.5 still paying out a profitable 4/3. ➡️ Bet on the match to go under 2.5 rounds at odds of 21/10 with Playzee Junior dos Santos to win outright The heavyweight clash between Junior dos Santos and Robelis Despaigne may not last long due to the explosive and sometimes reckless nature of both fighters. Still, we feel like Junior was given unfair treatment by the bookies here, which may lead adventurous punters to a nice payout. While all major UK operators have the 6’7 giant Despaigne as the heavy favourite due to his excellent reach and devastating Taekwondo kicks, Santos has proven himself not only as a crushing low-kick specialist but also a capable bare-knuckle brawler. While we’ll concede Despaigne is the favourite, it’s not nearly as one-sided as the odds suggest. ➡️ Bet on Junior dos Santos to win at odds of 27/10 with BetMGM 📺 How to watch Ronda Rousey vs Gina Carano Ronda Rousey vs Gina Carano will take place at the Intuit Dome on Saturday, May 16, 2026, with the main card scheduled to begin at 9 PM ET, or 2 AM in the UK. The event marks Netflix’s highly anticipated first major live MMA broadcast, so we’re in for a spectacle for sure. Fans around the world will be able to watch the full card exclusively via Netflix, with streaming available globally for subscribers. Alongside the headline showdown, we’ll also get a stacked undercard featuring names including Francis Ngannou, Nate Diaz, Mike Perry, and Junior dos Santos. UK punters may also want to check out the best betting apps in the UK for live odds, in-play markets, and more during the event. About the author Craig Mahood Craig Mahood is an expert in sports betting and online casinos and has worked with the company since 2020. He joined the Betting & Gaming team at The Sun in June 2022 and works closely with the leading bookmakers and online gaming companies to provide content on all areas of sports betting and gaming. He previously worked as a Digital Sports Reporter at the Scottish Sun, covering Scottish football with particular focus on Celtic and Rangers, As well as football, he has covered horse racing, boxing, darts, the Olympics and tennis for the Sun. Remember to gamble responsibly A responsible gambler is someone who: Establishes time and monetary limits before playing Only gambles with money they can afford to lose Never chase their losses Doesn’t gamble if they’re upset, angry or depressed Gamcare – gamcare.org.uk Read our guide on responsible gambling practices. For help with a gambling problem, call the National Gambling Helpline on 0808 8020 133 or go to gamstop.co.uk to be excluded from all UK-regulated gambling websites. Most read in Betting