RNZ-Reid Research poll: How politicians reacted to the latest stats

National's campaign chair Simeon Brown is acknowledging little more than that the election will be a tight one off the back of a crushing poll result.National plunged to 25.9 percent in the latest RNZ Reid Research poll - its worst result since the brutal 2020 election defeat - and Labour took a smaller tumble, to 30.8 percent.The Greens soared to 14.8 percent, and once again, Opportunity is kingmaker at 5.5 percent with both the left and right blocs needing it to govern.National leader Christopher Luxon did not wish to comment on the poll, so RNZ interviewed its campaign chair Simeon Brown.He did not offer an explanation about why the party was in the doldrums."I think what this poll overall shows is that the election is going to be very close, and that there's a lot of work to do between now and the 7th of November," he said."That's what we're focused on doing as the National Party."The poll also showed the country's been unable to shake its glum mood, with more than half of respondents saying New Zealand is going in the wrong direction under the current government.Brown said it had been a challenging time for New Zealanders, but the coalition had brought down inflation and restored law and order."Our job over the next 33 or 32 days is to talk New Zealanders about our plan and say party vote National to keep New Zealand moving in the right direction."Luxon has also taken a hit on the preferred prime minister rating, falling to 17.1 percent, once again lagging behind Labour leader Chris Hipkins.Brown repeated that it would be a close election, and said ultimately, the party vote was most important.Hipkins maintains Labour's building momentum despite dropDespite Labour suffering a third consecutive fall, Hipkins was confident New Zealanders wanted change."There's a lot of energy and momentum behind Labour's campaign following our campaign launch," he said, citing positive feedback about its policies designed to deliver cost of living relief."Labour's willing to go and fight for New Zealanders to get a better deal, to tackle the cost of living, to get Kiwis back to work. Those messages are really resonating around the community."Chris Hipkins (L) and Christopher Luxon.RNZOn these numbers, Hipkins could boot Te Pāti Māori out of a potential coalition, and put Opportunity in its place alongside the Greens."Really, that's up to voters," he said.Hipkins remains the country's preferred Prime Minister at 21.9 percent."It's very hard to stay popular as leader of the Opposition," he said."So many things are challenging for New Zealand families at the moment, and the role of the leader of the Opposition is by definition quite a negative one. As we're out on the campaign trail, I'm sure we can build on that."Greens say stellar result echoes electorate's praiseThe Green Party's co-leaders did not appear particularly surprised it climbed to nearly 15 percent."The polls are reflecting what we are hearing on the ground, on the phones, on the doors, in community," Marama Davidson said.She added that people believed the Greens would push down their bills and protect the environment.Chlöe Swarbrick said the party would not take it for granted."We are on the ground doing the hard work, not only putting forward evidence-based solutions as we always have, but building trust in communities."Green co-leaders Marama Davidson (L) and Chloe Swarbrick.RNZSwarbrick came in fourth as preferred prime minister, at 8.7 percent behind Hipkins, Luxon and Winston Peters.She brushed it off."The Greens believe very foundationally that no one person is bigger than the kaupapa," she said.Opportunity offers stabilityOpportunity at 5.5 percent remains kingmaker, and leader Qiulae Wong says it's clear what voters are after."We will bring stability so that no matter whether it's a Labour-led or a National-led government, we will be working to find common ground across the political spectrum."She believed the party's bottom lines - laid out last week, during the polling period - struck the right balance between transformational and realistic."And we've had some really positive feedback to those."Opportunity leader Qiulae Wong.RNZACT also had cause for celebration, climbing 1.3 to nine percent.Leader David Seymour said he was grateful for the support and encouraged by the growth."But a week is a long time in politics and there's four of them to go," he said.Seymour also ranked fifth in the preferred prime minister stakes, at 7.6 percent."It just reminds me to bring my best self to the campaign every day," he said.ACT leader David Seymour.RNZThe leaders of Te Pāti Māori (down one, to 2 percent) and New Zealand First (down 1.3 to 10.6 percent) did not make themselves available for an interview, though Winston Peters said his party would turn the poll into confetti.Reid Research surveyed 1000 eligible voters online between 24 September and 1 October 2026, using quota sampling and weighting by age, gender and geography. The poll had a reported maximum margin of error of +/- 3.1 percentage points at a 95 percent confidence level. Party-vote figures excluded the 3 percent who were undecided or did not know and the 2.6 percent who said they would not vote.