Researchers warn ‘megafires’ will become Europe’s new normal

Europe is again reeling from devastating wildfires this summer, even in regions that are not historically linked to wildfires.(CN) — Europe is staring down the barrel of a new grim climate reality: A future scarred by “megafires” raging every summer somewhere on the continent, even in wet northern pine forests, peat bogs and mountains.A risk assessment released Thursday in the journal Global Change Biology urged governments to quickly get to grips with the wildfire problem or face mounting damage from out-of-control wildfires.The alert from Germany’s Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research came amid another terrible summer of wildfires with massive fires sweeping across parts of France, Spain, Italy and in regions not associated with wildfires, including Belgium, the Netherlands and Czechia.“Climate change is driving up fire activity across Europe as hot, dry and windy conditions become more severe,” Maik Billing, a Potsdam Institute researcher, said in a statement.In their report, the Potsdam Institute-led team of environmental scientists urged European leaders to beef up firefighting and prevention capacities to limit future losses. The scale of losses will depend on how much warming takes place and how well Europe can manage fire risks, the scientists said.In a future where global temperatures continue to rise steadily, Europe would “see fires become much more prevalent, especially around the Mediterranean and across much of Western and Central Europe, including areas that to date have not experienced many fires,” Billing said.Europe could expect wildfire activity to increase by 39% in the likely scenario where the planet warms by 1.8 degrees Celsius (3.24 Fahrenheit) in the coming decades, researchers said. Some models show the planet warming much more than 1.8 C.Firefighter work to extinguish wildfires at Hautes Fagnes near Waimes, Belgium, Sunday, Aug. 16, 2026. (Photo AP/Valentin Bianchi)In recent years, Europe has been shocked by a series of devastating fires that have scorched Greek islands, closed airports, destroyed forests and advanced on numerous towns and cities, including Athens, Marseilles, Madrid, Rome and Palermo.The researchers noted that predicting future fire activity with accuracy poses challenges because many factors cause fires.For example, recent studies have drawn a direct link between an increase in fire activity and the abandonment of rural areas, the researchers said. Across Europe, rural areas are struggling from depopulation, and that makes for more fuel as fields become overgrown, shrubs more tangled and the undergrowth in forests thicker.In response to the threat caused by fires, the EU and many individual countries are stepping up their investments in new airplanes, firefighting watercraft and other equipment.The EU also is deepening cross-border coordination. This summer, it placed more than 700 firefighters on standby for deployment across Europe. Five years ago, there were fewer than 200 firefighters on standby.“We see fire conditions are increasing, so we need to invest more,” Thomas Hickler, a plant geographer at the Senckenberg Research Institute in Germany, said in a statement.Since May, various parts of Europe have been struggling through distressing drought conditions and heat waves, both fuel for wildfires.On Wednesday, a wildfire in Belgium’s High Fens nature reserve of pine forests and peat bogs was finally encircled and brought under some degree of control. It was Belgium’s largest fire in a century and burned an area roughly the size of half of Manhattan, according to news reports.More than a half million hectares of land (about 1.3 million acres) have burned this year across the European Union, according to the European Forest Fire Information System.At this rate, this year will match or exceed last year’s record 1.3 million hectares (3.2 million acres) of burnt area. Comprehensive EU-wide data goes back to the early 2000s.Courthouse News reporter Cain Burdeau is based in the European Union.Subscribe to our free newslettersOur weekly newsletter Closing Arguments offers the latest about ongoing trials, major litigation and rulings in courthouses around the U.S. and the world, while the monthly Under the Lights dishes the legal dirt from Hollywood, sports, Big Tech and the arts.Additional Reads