Republicans need to be honest about why we lost

One of the things the data analysts on our side obsessed over going into this midterm election was "composition" — whether the electorate looked close enough to 2024 for Republicans to win. And despite polls that showed a Democrat blowout, the data kept on telling us the same story: in some states turnout was merely OK, in other states it was downright amazing, and in no state was it catastrophic. There was a genuine sense of optimism on our team: our people were showing up.So I asked the smartest data guy I know, does that mean we're going to shock the world? "No," he told me. "We might do better than the polls suggest. But the data is telling us that a lot of Trump/Vance 2024 voters are pissed and planning to vote for the other guys. Our voters are turning out, but they may not vote for us."Everyone knows why we lost, and any honest conversation about where we go from here needs to start there.Well, that opinion looks prophetic now. Our voters did show up. In Florida, for example, the electorate was nine points more Republican than Democrat, just a couple points worse than 2024. Undoubtedly there were places we could have done better on turnout. But the main problem is not turnout. The main problem is that many people who voted for Trump/Vance in 2024 voted for Democrats in 2026.There will be a lot of arguing and finger-pointing over why that happened. A pollster I highly respect told me that our economic messaging down the stretch was not sharp enough to motivate voters. I’m sure that is true.But the real reason we lost is obvious to almost everyone.Another pollster — one of the smartest people I know in politics — told me yesterday we’d lose the generic ballot by 13 points. I felt negative going into Tuesday, but even I was shocked by this prediction. In his polling, he saw that a lot of Trump 2024 voters were angry and planning to vote for Democrats. He asked those voters who had abandoned us what would cause them to come back on our team. The top four answers, accounting for nearly all of the responses, were:End the Iran war.Focus on the cost of living and inflation.Put America and Americans first.Change our relationship to Israel.These four priorities are why many of our voters showed up to vote for Democrats yesterday, according to a pollster who nailed the results. While many people spent the day before the elections attacking Rachel Campos Duffy for calling for a diplomatic resolution to the Iran war, it turns out her political advice was perfectly sound. (She’s also a great person.)RELATED: Trump’s 2024 coalition was a loan. The bill just came due. Aaron Schwartz/Bloomberg/Getty ImagesOver the next few months, there is going to be a lot of gaslighting. You can expect to hear any number of establishment politicians claim the solution to our woes is amnesty for illegal immigrants. I’m open to the idea that we should change our approach to immigration enforcement — by focusing more on businesses that hire illegal labor, for instance. For the record, anyone pushing amnesty as a solution to our electoral issues is lying to you.The reason we lost the midterms is the Iran war. The president himself said so last night.If you want to argue that it was worth it — that losing the Senate for the next six years was worth it — then go right ahead. At least arguing that it was a worthwhile price to pay is honest. But everyone knows why we lost, and any honest conversation about where we go from here needs to start there.I remain hopeful for our country. My message to the people who are angry and want to say “I told you so” is simple: You’re right. You did tell us so. Now take that energy into electing Republicans who share your worldview and priorities. To the people who are just angry at the results: You should be.Let’s take this anger and use it to get back to the work of saving our country.Editor’s note: A version of this article was originally posted on X.