Republicans are losing support among Latinos. It might cost them the House.

Allentown, Pa. | Oct. 01, 2026, 5:38 p.m. ET | 7 min read In 2024, Donald Trump’s success in appealing to Hispanic working-class voters, particularly young men, fueled his return to the White House and put the political world on notice. Strategists even raised the prospect of a realignment that could give the GOP a formidable edge for years to come.Just one election cycle later, however, those gains appear to have vanished, and then some.With fewer than five weeks to go before the Nov. 3 midterms, polls indicate that the Latino voters who had embraced the Republican Party are abandoning it in droves, and at a greater rate than non-Hispanic voters. Increasingly, these voters are telling pollsters that they disapprove of President Trump and that he has failed to deliver on his promise to bring down the cost of living. The prices of gas and groceries are of particular concern, driven up in part by the war with Iran. Many also have soured on the administration’s immigration policies. The GOP’s collapse among the Hispanic electorate might be particularly costly because many of the most competitive House districts this year – in states from Texas to Florida, and California to Pennsylvania – have high shares of Latino voters, sometimes even majorities. The collapse is also a key reason some previously noncompetitive seats now appear to be in play for Democrats. Heavily Hispanic districts in South Texas, for example, which were gerrymandered to create more seats for the GOP, might now be at risk: A poll of Texas Latino voters found that only one-third approved of Mr. Trump, who won Latinos in Texas by 10 points in 2024.“Hispanics rented but did not buy Republican in 2024,” says Albert Eisenberg, a GOP political consultant in Pennsylvania who runs outreach programs to Latinos. “Our mistake [since 2024] has been not showing up and delivering for our future Republican voters.”While some Latinos support Mr. Trump’s border policy, a majority in most polls disapprove of the administration’s immigration enforcement tactics. Last month, Florida Rep. Maria Elvira Salazar, a Republican from a majority-Hispanic district in Miami, broke publicly with Mr. Trump on immigration, saying in a campaign video that Latinos who voted for Mr. Trump felt “betrayed.” Latino voters, who make up around 16% of the electorate, are not a monolith. But the hard turn away from Republicans is happening across the country, says Mike Madrid, a Republican political strategist and pollster based in California. “I’m seeing Puerto Ricans in Allentown, Cubans in Miami, Mexicans in the Rio Grande and the Central Valley of California, Dominicans in New Jersey, Central Americans in Virginia, the Manassas area, all moving in the same direction,” he says.But just as the rightward shift in 2024 didn’t last, he warns, the current move toward Democrats could prove to be transitory as well – with Latinos becoming a true swing constituency. “It’s not really right or left. It’s moving away from both parties,” he says. “It’s a dealignment.” SOURCE: U.S. Census Bureau, California Senate Office of Demographics, Texas Legislative Council, Florida Senate | Jacob Turcotte/Staff Pocketbook issuesIn Pennsylvania’s 7th Congressional District, which includes Allentown, 1 in 5 residents identify as Hispanic. In 2024, Latino voters here helped Republican Ryan Mackenzie eke out a victory by about 4,000 votes. This year, Democrats have nominated Bob Brooks, a firefighter and union leader, in a race that’s now one of the party’s top pickup opportunities.Allentown lies in Pennsylvania’s Lehigh Valley, where steel and manufacturing industries first drew workers from Puerto Rico during the expansion that followed World War II. In recent decades, Dominicans, Puerto Ricans, and other Latinos moved here to work in warehouses and other service industries that have replaced most of the manufacturing jobs. Latinos now make up a majority of the nearly 130,000 people in Pennsylvania’s third-largest city.Some commute to jobs in Philadelphia and New York, trying to make higher wages to afford housing and other essentials. But it’s become harder to make ends meet as costs for gas and other items keep climbing, says Alex Dejesus, the pastor of a bilingual evangelical church in Allentown. He’s seeing more families come to a financial breaking point and reach out for help.Many are asking, he says, “‘Hey, which bill am I gonna pay this month?’ Or, ‘Which bill am I not gonna pay this month?’” Tony Gutierrez/APRepublican Rep. Ryan Mackenzie of Pennsylvania arrives onstage at the GOP's convention in Dallas, Sept. 10, 2026. At Ana Pena’s Dominican restaurant, steaming-hot dishes are served from metal trays behind a plexiglass-fronted counter topped with pumpkin and sunflower paper cutouts. Ms. Pena voted twice for Mr. Trump, but is unhappy with how the president has handled the economy. “Business is bad because people don’t have money to spend on food,” she says. “We expected prices would come down. But the price of everything is going up.” She says she won’t be voting for Republicans in the midterms.In 2024, voters blamed inflation and high prices on Democrats, says Allentown Mayor Matt Tuerk, a Democrat who knocked on doors that year for Vice President Kamala Harris. “People didn’t feel like their concerns were being heard by Democrats at the time,” he says.The result that year was a swing to Republicans in 52 out of 55 city precincts. In Lehigh County, where she held a rally the day before Election Day, Ms. Harris won by fewer than 5,000 votes – a nearly threefold decline from Joe Biden’s margin of victory in 2020.Still, when Mayor Tuerk checked subsequent voter rolls in Allentown, he saw only a modest uptick in Republican registrations. “It wasn’t a structural shift that I could see,” he says.A September poll by Franklin & Marshall College in Lancaster, Pennsylvania, found Mr. Brooks with a five-point lead over Mr. Mackenzie, the Republican incumbent, with 16% undecided. A majority of respondents said they were worse off than a year ago.DisillusionmentRepublicans in Allentown say they understand the financial pressures and why voters are disgruntled. But “you have to vote for the right people,” says George Rivera, who chairs the Lehigh County Republican Committee. A vote for Democrats, he says, will mean higher taxes, and that would hurt Latinos who run small businesses in the community. Mr. Rivera and other Republicans are keen to stress the local issues that Mr. Mackenzie has worked on, rather than talk about Mr. Trump and his agenda. In June, Mr. Mackenzie appeared with the president at a rally at Mack Trucks outside Allentown. But on his campaign website today, there are no images from the rally and no mentions at all of Mr. Trump.Arnaud Armstrong, a campaign spokesman, says “the choice on affordability is clear.” Mr. Mackenzie “has cut taxes for every American, delivered results for working families, stood up to special interests and big corporations, and brought over $160 million home to the Lehigh Valley and the Poconos.” Simon Montlake/The Christian Science MonitorUntil the Iraq War in the mid-2000s, Arturo Rand, a Colombia-born business owner in Allentown, had voted mainly for Republicans. But the conflict, during which Mr. Rand's son served in the Air Force, altered his point of view. This year, he is supporting Democratic House candidate Bob Brooks. For some Latino voters, that remains a compelling message. Luis Garcia, a member of the National Guard, voted for Mr. Trump in 2024 and says he has no regrets. He supports the war against Iran, saying “it had to be addressed,” despite the economic impacts here at home. “I drive a truck. I know what gas costs,” he adds.He met Mr. Mackenzie at a recent lunch in Allentown for service members and came away impressed, though he says he is still weighing his vote in November.Mr. Brooks, the Democratic nominee, has strong support from labor unions and migrant advocates. In his pitch to Latinos, he styles himself “Bombero Bob,” using the Spanish word for firefighter. He calls Mr. Mackenzie a “lapdog” for Mr. Trump.Mr. Mackenzie has supported Trump policies that “cause harm to our community,” says Cristian Pungo, a Democratic city council member in Allentown. But opposing Mr. Trump “only gets you so far” with Latino voters, many of whom are disillusioned both with Democrats and Republicans, he warns. “What are you actually going to do? What is the plan?”In a statement, Mr. Brooks zeros in on the Iran war. “Latino voters want what everybody wants: a life they can afford and a fair shot at the American dream. Right now, gas prices are making that impossible, and Ryan Mackenzie has voted six times to continue the war in Iran that’s driving them up. I’ll vote to bring it to an end.” Arturo Rand hasn’t forgotten the George W. Bush administration’s war in Iraq, during which his son served in the Air Force. Until then, the Colombian-born engineer had voted for Republicans. But the Iraq War, waged on the premise of nonexistent weapons of mass destruction, soured him on the GOP.Mr. Trump “promised many things and has delivered so little,” Mr. Rand says from his neatly swept café in Allentown, where customers can get authentic “Pan de Bono,” a Colombian cheese bread. And he’s outraged at the Trump administration’s treatment of immigrants. “Trump hates us,” he says. 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