Reds Prospect Luke Holman Has Been One of the Best Pitchers in the AFL

John E. Sokolowski-Imagn Images Luke Holman has been one of the top pitchers in the hitter-friendly Arizona Fall League. Across three starts with the Peoria Desert Dogs, the 23-year-old right-hander in the Cincinnati Reds organization has surrendered just one run over nine innings. Moreover, he has fanned 15 batters and allowed just four hits and a lone walk. He was especially sharp on Monday. Facing a Scottsdale Scorpions lineup that included high-profile prospects Zyhir Hope, Bryce Rainer, and Nathan Flewelling, Holman breezed through four scoreless frames on 52 pitches. Eric Longenhagen referenced the recent outing when I asked him for a snapshot of what he has seen from the Reading, Pennsylvania native, whom the Reds drafted 71st overall in 2024 out of Louisiana State University. “He looks good,” our lead prospect analyst told me. “Glove-side command of 92-94, plus curveball in the 78-82 mph range. Attacks lefties in on their hands with fastballs and mid-80s cutter/sliders, then drops curveballs below the zone. He stretched out to four innings in his most recent start. Looks like a potential no. 4/5 to me. I want to see how he attacks second/third time through when asked to go six innings, and how his arm strength trends as he gets traction in a full-season routine.” The erstwhile LSU Tiger, whose rotation-mates at the SEC powerhouse included Kade Anderson and Gage Jump, hasn’t had much of an opportunity to establish a routine. Holman began his professional career with a pair of effective outings in April 2025, only to have his elbow give out; Tommy John surgery cost him the remainder of the campaign. He also missed almost the entirety of this past season due to injury. “I had a little groin thing going on,” explained Holman, who ended up making just four appearances, all in the Arizona Complex League. “The Reds wanted me to be 100% healthy, then go at it — basically be ready for the Fall League — but it wasn’t the arm. My arm actually feels as good as it’s ever felt.” Holman’s first AFL appearance, a two-inning stint in which he allowed his lone run of the fall circuit, was on October 5 against the Salt River Rafters. Afterward, I asked Holman how he would assess the quality of his stuff relative to before his Tommy John surgery. “The floor of my fastball velocity has gone up,” said Holman, who is currently ranked 17th in the Cincinnati system with a 40 FV. “Hopefully that keeps rising. And then my curveball feels really good. I don’t know exactly where it is metrics-wise, but I would say it’s back to where it was. The slider — it’s more of a gyro; my higher arm angle isn’t really conducive to a sweeper — needs a little bit of work, a little better shape. The splitter has also been pretty good. “I threw three splitters today,” he said. “I needed something that goes away from a lefty. I had a really bad changeup, so I started throwing a splitter a couple years ago. It will knuckle a little bit here and there, but it’s a true splitter and has been pretty nasty for me.” His best weapon is arguably the pitch that Eric described back in December as “a huge mid-70s rainbow curveball that looks like it is headed to the backstop and then bends into the zone.” “I’ve had it since I was little,” Holman said of the curve. “I liked to flip it in, trying to get that good shape. Something that helped out a lot is that when I got older, I started getting good ride on my fastball and could play them off of each other. I’ve always thought of the curveball as straight down.” As is the case with other pitchers with big curveballs, Holman has found his to be a great weapon at the top of the zone. It starts well above the zone, and when batters see it up, they decide not to swing. But then it breaks sharply downward and into the zone, resulting in a free strike. That sets up the rest of the at-bat. “Getting it in there, showing that I can land it for strike, kind of lets me [then] do whatever I want with it,” Holman said. “I can bounce it, or throw it wherever. Because it’s got so much so much depth to it, I just have to make it look like a strike whenever I’m trying to bury it for a swing-and-miss.” Holman is not an especially hard-thrower, so quality offspeed pitches will be important to him going forward. With that in mind, does he see himself as more of a curveballer, or a pitcher who will mix and match with his entire repertoire? “I want to throw what I’m good at,” Holman said. “The curveball has been really good for me. Like I said earlier, the slider needs a little work right now. I leaned on that quite a bit in college, but since TJ it has been a little inconsistent. It will get better, though, as get I more innings. Ideally, I want be throwing all four of my pitches for quality strikes. Right now, it’s good to be out here, getting back to doing that.”