Record Number of Russians Head for the Exit Amid New Draft Fears

Russians traveled to Georgia, Armenia and Serbia in record numbers in the third quarter of 2026, as rumors of a new mobilization wave fueled fears of being sent to fight in Ukraine. A total of 1.13 million Russians traveled to the three countries between July and September, the highest number in 17 years, according to Russian Federal Security Service (FSB) border data cited by the independent outlet Verstka.JOIN US ON TELEGRAMFollow our coverage of the war on the @Kyivpost_official. Georgia saw the biggest influx, with 660,300 Russian arrivals – 43,300 more than in the same period last year, when the previous record was set. The figure was also 43% higher than during Russia’s September 2022 mobilization, when 461,200 Russians traveled to the country. Another 402,300 Russians traveled to Armenia, up from 344,700 a year earlier. The figure was the highest recorded in any quarter since 2010. Serbia received 64,800 Russian visitors, around 14,000 more than in the third quarter of 2025. The previous record of 53,200 was set in 2024. The figures include all Russian citizens who traveled to the three countries, regardless of their reasons for visiting. They do not establish how many left Russia permanently or specifically to escape mobilization or political pressure. In July, searches on Yandex for ways to leave Russia reached their highest level since early 2023. Russians were particularly interested in countries they could relocate to without visas. Other Topics of Interest Will a Freezing Winter Save Ukraine from Russian Drones? Freezing temperatures, icing, and strong winds could complicate Russian drone operations, but winter alone is unlikely to shield from attacks. Relocation agencies also reported a sharp increase in inquiries. The Relokats project said Russians were submitting nearly twice as many emigration requests as before, with many seeking to leave before September or October for fear of being sent to the front. Agents in Georgia, Serbia and Armenia also reported a surge in requests from Russians seeking long-term rentals from late July, according to the independent outlet Meduza. The trend was already visible in August. More than 113,000 Russians had crossed into Georgia through the Verkhny Lars checkpoint in a single week at the end of August, amid rumors of another military draft. The exodus also drove up demand for housing in neighboring countries. According to the local realtors, in August, the demand for long-term apartment rentals in Tbilisi and Yerevan had increased by as much as 30% compared with the same period last year. Russia struggles to replenish its army The renewed emigration wave comes as Russia faces growing difficulties meeting its military recruitment targets. Ukraine’s Foreign Intelligence Service (SZRU) said Russia had recruited around 195,000 contract soldiers by mid-July, falling short of its target of 204,500 for the first half of 2026. Moscow’s annual recruitment target stands at 409,000. The agency also estimated that Russia had lost 196,700 military personnel in 2026 by that point, including approximately 115,300 irrecoverable losses and 80,400 wounded. Independent Russian outlet Verstka also reported a nationwide decline in recruitment despite increasingly generous financial incentives. As of spring of 2026, the recruitment in Moscow had fallen by roughly one-third compared with the same period in 2025. The Kremlin has sought to avoid another publicly announced mobilization by relying on contract recruitment and putting pressure on regional authorities to meet enlistment quotas. In August, The Moscow Times reported that Russian regional authorities had been ordered to recruit 409,000 contract soldiers in 2026, with officials increasingly targeting debtors, criminal suspects and recently discharged conscripts. However, Ukrainian intelligence warned that Moscow was preparing plans to mobilize an additional 600,000 people across 2026 and 2027, with 300,000 recruits targeted each year. Signs of preparations for another draft Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky also warned in late July that Russian President Vladimir Putin was preparing another mobilization campaign, saying Moscow wanted to recruit between 300,000 and 500,000 additional troops for the war. On Aug. 11, Zelensky said Ukrainian intelligence had obtained Russian documents confirming preparations for a rapid mobilization of more than 100,000 troops following September’s State Duma elections. Further signs emerged in September, when Russians summoned to military enlistment offices to update their registration details reportedly found mobilization orders inserted into their military ID cards. Kyiv Post is Ukraine’s first and oldest English news organization, reporting since 1995. Its international reach – 90% of readers are outside of Ukraine – make it truly Ukraine’s global voice.