Record Diesel Prices Push Brent Toward $95

Diesel prices and refining cracks surge as tightening middle distillate supplies push Brent toward $95.Friday, September 04, 2026Refined products have been the main driver of rising oil prices, particularly diesel as the outlook for global middle distillate supply continues to deteriorate into late 2026. With US diesel prices soaring to an all-time high, middle distillate cracks alone are now higher than outright crude prices. ICE Brent is poised to end the week with a 6% weekly gain, trending around $95 per barrel, with no real short-term downside factor except for demand destruction.OPEC+ Set to Freeze Quotas as War Blocks Its Hikes. The oil group is likely to hold quotas steady for October 2026 at 31.01 million b/d as the US-Iran war continues to cap Middle Eastern producers’ supply increases, pausing the rewinding of the remaining 1.65 million b/d supply cuts until at least 2027.Aramco Holds Arab Light at a Post-COVID Lows. Saudi national oil firm Saudi Aramco (TADAWUL:2222) kept its October selling price to Asia at a $2 per barrel discount to Oman/Dubai—the lowest since June 2020—defying expectations of an increase even as Dubai backwardation steepened again in August.Trump Locks China Out of Venezuelan Oil Revenues. Energy Secretary Chris Wright said Beijing will have no debt claims on revenue from new output from Venezuela as Chevron prepares a $7 billion expansion in the Latin American country, despite Caracas owing Beijing some $10 billion in oil debt.US Natural Gas Hits an Eight-Week High. US Henry Hub gas futures rose to $2.96 per MMBtu,the highest since early July, as Tropical Storm Edouard saw little impact on overall demand, with LNG feedgas flows recovering to 18 BCf/d and unseasonably warm weather sustaining cooling demand.Taiwan Sets Aside $13.3 Billion for Energy Subsidies. Taipei approved $5.7 billion to subsidise oil, gas and electricity prices and roughly $7.4 billion for increased spot purchases of LNG as disrupted Qatari supply could leave the island short by some 70 cargoes (5 million tonnes LNG) through December.US to Drill Utah Wildlife Refuge for Oil. The US Interior Department proposed allowing companies to access 5,200 acres of federal lands in Utah’s oil-rich Uinta basin, reversing 2008 restrictions, although wells would need to be drilled from outside its boundaries under no-surface-occupancy rules.Europe’s Gas Price Hits a Three-Year High. Europe’s benchmark gas futures TTF soared past €72 per MWh ($25 per MMBtu) this week, the highest since December 2022, as stalled Qatari LNG exports intensify competition with Asia and traders increasingly expect the EU to miss its reduced 75% target.Bangladesh Pays Nearly $100 Million for One LNG Cargo. Bangladesh’s state energy company Petrobangla bought an LNG cargo from BP at $28.03/MMBtu—the highest price recorded since 2022—to ease nationwide blackouts as gas shortages disrupt 40–50% of the country’s knitwear production.US Diesel Breaks Its 2022 Record. The US national average price of diesel hit $5.85 per gallon as Hormuz product flows dissipate and Russia keeps its export ban, while nationwide stocks sit at a record seasonal low (and East Coast stocks at an all-time low) despite US refiners operating at maximum capacity.Indonesia Offers Its Upstream Sector to Russia. The Indonesian government has invited Russian firms to provide investment and technology across 138 available oil and gas exploration blocks as Jakarta targets 1 million b/d of oil and 12 BCf/d of gas by 2030—far above current production (578,000 b/d as of July).Milei Targets Falklands Oil Developers. Argentina plans sanctions against Israeli-listed Navitas, UK-based Rockhopper Exploration and suppliers developing the 1.7-billion-barrel Sea Lion field offshore the Falkland Islands after US President Trump signalled that he might reconsider US neutralityDangote Seeks $1.5 Billion in Africa’s Biggest IPO. Nigeria’s private refiner Dangote group plans to sell 4.1 billion refinery shares at 525 naira ($0.40) each, with the order book for Africa’s largest IPO opening September 14, seeking to use the proceeds to double the Lekki facility’s capacity to 1.4 million b/d.US Iran Sanctions Reach Three Turkish Financial Firms. The US Treasury Department targeted three Turkey-based entities – an investment bank, an asset manager and a leasing company - for alleged transactions with Iran, the first step of Trump’s ‘economic onslaught’ on countries dealing with Tehran.El Niño Threatens Indonesia's Nickel Powerhouse. Indonesia's largest nickel processing hub IMIP warned it may cut output by 30-40% as an El Niño-driven drought squeezes water supplies to smelters, raising the prospect of tighter global supplies and offering potential support to lingering prices.Hot US Jobs Knock the Bullion Below $4,400. Spot gold prices fell by more than 2% to trade below $4,400 per ounce after August US payrolls surged by 162,000—beating every forecast—while unemployment held at 4.1%, pushing the probability of a September Fed hike to around 60%.By Tom Kool for Oilprice.comMore Top Reads From Oilprice.comEurope Gas Prices Head for Fourth Straight Weekly GainIran Says It's Found Ways to Dodge U.S. Oil BlockadeIndia Plans Mandatory Battery Storage at Solar and Wind Projects