Reality Check: Why ‘You Can See Everything’ Faces a Long Road to the Oscars

Editor’s Note: The following story contains spoilers for “You Can See Everything.” Everybody’s talking about the A24 documentary “You Can See Everything,” and many Oscar prognosticators are jumping on board the Best Picture bandwagon. Don’t buy the hype. While there’s a lot to admire about Nathan Fielder and Lance Oppenheim’s entertaining nonfiction approach to parsing the distorted reality of disgraced Thanatos founder Elizabeth Holmes just before she went to prison, it’s still a long road for a surprise box-office documentary hit ($45 million domestic and counting) to garner enough Oscar votes for a Best Picture nomination. The folks who believe it’s possible are listening to the current buzz and noise, much of it from younger movie fans on social media, and the film‘s undeniable heat. A24’s brilliant “no spoilers” marketing campaign has pushed more moviegoers than usual into theaters early in the run. But the Academy membership is still senior-centric. Here are the necessary steps for A24 to nab a BP nod. Step One: Critic group wins. This week’s Gotham nomination for Best Documentary Feature is a start. The movie needs to land awards from the NYFCC, LAFCA, and NSFC. The Golden Globes will be no help, as they do not give a documentary prize. Critic support will add prestige and convince laggards to watch the movie on the Academy portal. ‘You Can See Everything’A24 Step Two: Lure international voters. “YCSE” is an American movie, even if it confronts alternate reality issues familiar to everyone. It has yet to open overseas. Recognition from the European Film Awards or BAFTAs would show support outside North America. (Checking on eligibility) Step Three: Legitimize the movie with the 750-member documentary branch, which is notorious for rejecting popular nonfiction like Morgan Neville’s “Won’t You Be My Neighbor?” and Brett Morgen’s “Jane.” Some doc voters harbor strong opinions about reenactments, which YCSE leans into in the second half. There’s a strong chance the doc branch will not nominate this movie. Step Four: Figure Out Nathan Fielder. The offbeat, deliberately awkward creator behind TV series “The Rehearsal” and “The Curse” is an acquired taste. He’s been doing some press interviews and panels, but full-court glad-handing may not be his strong suit. Nathan Fielder in ‘You Can See Everything’A24/Courtesy Everett Collection Step Five: Break out of the doc box. In the Oscars‘ 98-year history, no documentary has ever been nominated for Best Picture. Over the past two decades, none of the docs that have succeeded at the box office have made it, not even Michael Moore’s 2004 Palme d’Or winner “Fahrenheit 9/11” — which was ineligible for the Oscar because it played on TV before the contentious national election. Moore received two documentary Oscar nominations for “Sicko” and “Bowling for Columbine,” winning the prize for the latter. Step Six: Beat out the A24 competition. Four movies are vying for Best Picture this year from A24. The distributor is also pushing Olivia Wilde’s four-hander “The Invite,” Jesse Eisenberg’s crowdpleaser “The Debut,” and rookie Jordan Firstman’s “Club Kid” (a more likely Original Screenplay nod). “No one has the bandwidth to do every film justice,” said one Oscar campaigner. “It’s hard for a studio to get more than two.” Step Seven: Woo the actors. With more than 1,100 voters, the actors are the dominant branch in the Academy. On GoldDerby.com, Experts list Amanda Seyfried in the sixth spot as a Supporting Actor contender. (The movie is ranked eighth for Best Picture.) In “YCSE,” she performs transcripts as Elizabeth Holmes in various reenactments, whom she played in the TV series “The Dropout.” And she plays herself. This is a hard one to call. Many believe this is more about A24 hype than reality. Amanda Seyfried in ‘The Dropout’Courtesy of Beth Dubber / Hulu Step Eight: Do the Numbers. Look at branches of the Academy and count the ones that are likely to vote for this movie. The classic way of figuring out a Best Picture contender is to see where its support lies among the active 10,365 voters. That’s how I figured out that “F1” might make it to Best Picture last year. Some of the 750 documentary branch members will vote for “YCSE” and are the most likely to see the movie. Anyone can vote for Best Picture, but the doc is unlikely to win any craft nominations: animation (729), casting directors (191), cinematographers (326), costume designers (205), editors (421), hair & makeup (225), music (430), production design (446), production and technology (424, they don’t have a branch but they vote), short films (234), sound (575), and visual effects (679). More likely to vote for the movie are such non-crafts as artists representatives (266), directors (587), executives (770), marketing and public relations (672), producers (692), and writers (534). The movie has no script per se. But writers may appreciate its ingenious structure and evolution. Finally, if “YCSE” were to become the first doc to score a Best Picture slot, it would likely do so without any other nominations.