Ray McAdam tipped to win Seanad byelection as rival fails to get Sinn Féin backing

Independent candidate Maeve O’Rourke’s hopes of pulling off an upset in the Seanad byelection have suffered a setback after Sinn Féin decided to support a rival candidate.O’Rourke, an academic and human rights lawyer, is one of four candidates contesting the byelection, which was triggered by the vacancy arising from the election of Fine Gael’s Seanad member Seán Kyne to the Dáil in May. His Fine Gael colleague, former Dublin Lord Mayor Ray McAdam, is the party’s candidate and is regarded as the favourite to win the seat.The other two candidates are Caitlín Ní Bhroin, a language planning officer based in Co Donegal and UCD academic Prof Patrick Walsh.READ MOREPolling has been continuing since October 23rd and will close on Friday at 11am. The count will begin shortly after polling closes with a result expected by mid-afternoon. McAdam is expected to receive the backing of Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil TDs and senators, as well as independent representatives who support the Government. The combined total of parliamentarians from both parties totals 127, which is over half of the number of seats (233) currently in both Houses of the Oireachtas. O’Rourke, meanwhile, has secured the support of much of the Opposition, having been endorsed by the Labour Party, the Social Democrats and the Green Party.However, senior Sinn Féin figures confirmed on Thursday that the party’s 39 TDs and six senators would instead vote for Ní Bhroin and give a lower preference to O’Rourke.[ School transport costs ran €96m over budget last year, Dáil hearsOpens in new window ]The Seanad byelection electorate consists of members of both Houses of the Oireachtas: all 174 TDs and 59 senators. The byelection will bring the number in the Upper House to 60. Although the Government parties hold a majority across the two Houses, O’Rourke’s supporters had hoped that a small number of Fianna Fáil TDs and senators might be prepared to support her rather than vote for a Fine Gael candidate.Maeve O'Rourke suffered setback. Photograph: Dara Mac Dónaill/The Irish Times To have any realistic prospect of winning, O’Rourke would need to attract almost all Opposition representatives while also winning support from some Government backbenchers.Seanad byelections have traditionally favoured Government candidates, but there have been notable upsets in the past, partly because of the relatively small electorate.In 2018, Fine Gael candidate Niall Blaney was widely expected to win one of two Seanad byelections held on the same day. However, Sinn Féin TDs voted for the Fine Gael candidate Anthony Lawlor, reflecting the party’s antipathy to Fianna Fáil leader Micheál Martin.There were also concerns within Sinn Féin that a successful election for Blaney might damage the prospects of Pádraig Mac Lochlainn regaining his Dáil seat at the following general election. Blaney and Mac Lochlainn were both based in Co Donegal. Mac Lochlainn had unexpectedly lost his seat in the 2016 general election.