Ratcliffe Visits Moscow

Early Tuesday morning, Kyiv Post reported that on Ukraine’s 35th anniversary of independence, “the US has again declined to join a United Nations statement condemning Russia’s attacks on Ukraine and calling for an immediate and unconditional ceasefire.” The “why” – at least part of the why – presented itself later in the day when social media exploded with reports that a US Air Force C-17A reportedly had landed at Moscow’s Vnukovo Airport.JOIN US ON TELEGRAMFollow our coverage of the war on the @Kyivpost_official. It’s hard to keep anything a secret anymore as “OSINT analysts tracked its route: on Aug. 23, the aircraft, callsign RCH4555 and registration 07-7181, flew from Charleston via Joint Base Andrews near Washington to Riga. This morning, it departed Riga without a publicly listed destination.” CBS News reported the passenger on the C-17 was CIA Director John Ratcliffe. CNN reported that “the US asked Ukraine to halt drone and missile strikes in Moscow and other cities in the north of Russia ahead of Ratcliffe’s trip” Monday through Wednesday, telling Ukraine that a senior US official would be traveling in Russia. The why seems apparent – get Russian President Vladimir Putin back to the negotiation table, which probably explains why the US declined to join the UN statement condemning Russia’s attacks on Ukraine. The White House didn’t want to “poison the well” before the meeting took place. Other Topics of Interest Ukraine Strikes Russian Military Network, Hitting Radar, Drone Center, Key Supply Depots Ukrainian forces struck a Russian Kasta radar, a drone training center, a repair base and several military warehouses in occupied territories and Russia, Ukraine’s General Staff said. Ukraine obliged – President Volodymyr Zelensky had tried on multiple occasions to get Russia to agree to a ceasefire. But why Ratcliffe? Unlike US Special Envoy Steve Witkoff and President Donald Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner, Ratcliff brings a different skill set to the table – one that a former KGB agent would likely respect. It’s safe to say that the Witkoff & Kushner buddy-buddy approach and business deals are off the table and that a more direct approach to bring the war to a conclusion is. Giving Putin the US intelligence assessment of his current situation – versus what his generals are telling him – may shock him to the negotiation table. And why now? Witkoff & Kusher have been a little busy with Iranian negotiations – better described by Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi as “passing messages between Pakistan and Qatar mediators.” That, and Kusher was recently dispatched to meet with minority leader Representative Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.) ahead of the November elections to discuss potential areas of common ground should the Democrats retake the House. But the most likely reason – the path to escalation is on a fast track. Not a nuclear war – but a World War that could potentially drag NATO, North Korea, Belarus and China into Putin’s quest to conquer Ukraine. Here’s why Russian casualties now total 1,479,300 – up another 1,230 today; 42,860 casualties in the month of July, with no end in sight. The Kremlin keeps sending them into the “meat grinder” and Ukrainian drones make them go away. Rinse and repeat daily. According to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, Putin is preparing to launch a new wave of mobilization following the Russian State Duma elections on Sept. 21 – drafting as many as 300,000 to 500,000 more troops. North Korea is prepared to deploy another 30,000-50,000 soldiers, ballistic missile launchers, KN-23/KN-24 missiles and their crews to Russia. Putin remains fixated on the Donbas. The Kremlin is 0-15 on Putin deadlines to capture the region since the invasion in February 2022. But they continue to press – like Big 10 Football in the 80s, “three yards and a cloud of dust.” Kyiv Post cites an Institute for the Study of War estimate that “at the current rate of advance [which on some parts of the front… has slowed to as little as 15-70 meters (49-230 feet) per day, described as record-low rates in more than a century of modern warfare] Russian forces are unlikely to capture the remaining parts of Donbas by the end of 2026 and may never achieve the objective.” A Russian lawmaker has said Moscow should complete its war against Ukraine by 2030 to prepare for what he described as a potential future confrontation with NATO. The Atlantic Council reports that Russia is “likely to expand attacks on the country’s civilian population and critical infrastructure in the coming months… [in order to] break Ukraine’s resistance.” As we wrote in The Hill back in January 2024, Putin has returned to a strategy of weaponizing winter. Ukraine has no intention of backing down. The Ukrainian Armed Forces has recaptured 288 square miles of Russian-occupied land this year across its southeastern front. While the White House has backed away from granting Ukraine license to produce Patriot interceptor missiles – to defend themselves against Russian ballistic missile attacks – the United Kingdom and France have stepped-up and agreed to give Ukraine approval to produce long-range Storm Shadow / SCALP missiles – missiles that can be used to target Russian missile launch sites, storage facilities, production and assembly plants, and command and control centers. Ukraine is looking to add an active defense to the three-fold strategy we described in last week’s INTREP360 to defeat Russia. The introduction of the Fire Point 7 and 9 ballistic missiles will provide additional arrows in Zelensky’s quiver. As reported in the Financial Times, “Ukraine is seeking approval to use Starlink-equipped drones against ballistic missile launchers up to 200km inside Russia as Kyiv faces a severe shortage of air-defense interceptors. The move would require approval from Elon Musk, whose stance towards Ukraine and its use of his satellite internet service has oscillated.” Ukraine also expects to receive a timeline for further work on Freyja, a joint anti-ballistic missile system project by European and Ukrainian defense companies. Norway confirmed a $9 billion financial support package outside the EU framework to help finance the Freyja project. Ukraine also received confirmation that it will receive several Crotale air defense systems and their VT-1 missiles, as well as AIM missiles and additional missiles for Patriot systems. Russia responded to the technology transfer by threatening the UK – never mind the Kremlin’s use of Iranian drones and North Korean ballistic missiles – and dragging Japan into the mix with the Kuril Islands. Conditions are being set for a prolonged war that could expand rapidly. Ratcliffe’s mission was to “cool the engines.” A new tactic has emerged – America is delivering a message to the aggressor – Russia. De-escalate in Ukraine, or risk World War III. Copyright 2026. Jonathan E. Sweet and Mark C. Toth. All rights reserved. The views expressed in this opinion article are the author’s and not necessarily those of Kyiv Post. Jonathan Sweet Army Col. (Ret.) Jonathan Sweet (@JESweet2022) served 30 years as a military intelligence officer. His background includes tours of duty with the 101st Airborne Division and the Intelligence and Security Command. He led the U.S. European Command Intelligence Engagement Division from 2012-14. Mark Toth Mark Toth (@MCTothSTL) writes on national security and foreign policy. Previously an economist and entrepreneur, he has worked in banking, insurance, publishing and global commerce. A former board member of the World Trade Center, St. Louis, he has lived in U.S. diplomatic and military communities around the world.