Putin’s war is going badly — and China, Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan, Armenia and Turkey are quietly walking away

Vladimir Putin’s foreign policy team may feel nervous about briefing the boss this week. Among recent bad news, the Chinese Communist Party has delivered a double snub to the Kremlin. It is refusing to supply marine propulsion systems for vessels needed for the Arctic “northern sea route”. And the planned 50 billion cubic metre Power of Siberia 2 gas pipeline is all but dead, thanks to Chinese demands for the gas-price that Russian consumers pay: $50 [€44] per 1000 cubic metres. That is one-fifth of what the Kremlin was offering, at an already hefty discount. But the Chinese party-state has other options. That gives it leverage. Russia, by contrast, is out of time and out of other customers: its remaining pipeline gas sales to the European Union stop next year. Indeed, Ukrainian strikes on its refineries mean that Russia must now import refined products from China: more cards for Beijing to play. Other countries are also sniffing Russia’s weakness and acting accordingly. Kazakhstan has just banned most imports of Russian wheat. Azerbaijan’s leader Ilham Aliyev demonstratively supported Ukraine in a recent public appearance. Armenia is pressing ahead unilaterally with work on restoring rail links to Turkey and Azerbaijan, despite foot-dragging from Russia, which nominally runs the railway. To read this story, log in or subscribeEnjoy access to all articles and 25 years of archives, comment and gift articles. Become a subscriber for as low as €1,75 per week.Read without limitsAlready a subscriber? Login