Putin’s desperate daytime drone attacks could be his undoing

A daytime Russian drone attack targeted Ukraine’s intelligence service headquarters last week. On Tuesday, another drone smashed into a Ukrainian TV station as it aired a daytime news broadcast.These attacks underlined President Vladimir Putin’s effort to terrorize the Ukrainian people into submission. He wants the stress of relentless air raids to lead Ukrainians to pressure President Volodymyr Zelensky into a peace agreement favorable to Moscow.Putin also sees these attacks as a much-needed propaganda booster shot for his own people. But Putin’s strategy has a major drawback: Ukraine is not sitting idle in the face of this aggression. On the contrary, Zelensky has ordered retaliation that “mirrors” Russia’s attacks. Any such Ukrainian attacks would have a more significant impact on Putin’s war effort than Russian attacks in the alternative. PUTIN DOESN’T WANT PEACE, WITKOFF AND KUSHNER’S VISIT WILL ONLY ENABLE HIS PROPAGANDAUkrainians have been under Russian aerial onslaught for well over four years now. They are used to it. By contrast, every time Ukraine strikes one more target a little deeper inside Russia, Russians gain a little more evidence that all’s not well on the southern front.And while most Russians continue to support Putin and the war, the Russian president fears how long that support will endure. Putin proved as much when he banned Russia’s only anti-war party from standing in the Sept. 18-20 parliamentary elections. That party has minimal support, but Putin evidently believed he could not risk it becoming a public vehicle for anti-war sentiment.Putin’s additional strategic risk is that his daytime drone attacks will encourage Zelensky to pursue similar actions.Since the war began, Ukraine has carried out a number of spectacular strikes, such as its June 2025 surprise attack on a Russian air base. But with the exception of a May 2023 symbolic attack on the Kremlin, Ukraine has generally restrained itself from targeting sensitive Russian political sites. This self-restraint has been designed to placate Ukraine’s supporters abroad who are fearful about escalation. Yet, amid Putin’s escalating terrorism against Europe, and President Donald Trump’s increased respect for Zelensky and Ukraine’s resilience, the West has less incentive to restrain Ukraine. And although Russian media should be off-limits from Ukrainian attacks, Putin’s antics give Zelensky a justification to point to when Ukraine responds in Moscow.What if Ukrainian operatives inside Russia soon fly an explosives-laden drone into the Moscow headquarters of the FSB domestic security service? Russia’s counterpart to Ukraine’s SBU, video of the FSB’s burning Lubyanka building would certainly fulfill Zelensky’s “mirror” retaliation order. It would also carry immense psychological and political weight in Russia.The Lubyanka is supposed to stand as a timeless monument to the strength and stability of Putin’s regime. Before it housed the FSB, the Lubyanka was home to Putin’s first employer, the Soviet KGB. It is a building meant to command absolute fear and respect across generations. But if, nearly five years after Putin began what was supposed to be a short “special military operation,” a Ukrainian drone strike struck the Lubyanka, even the most mouth-frothing Kremlin propagandist would cringe. Putin’s defining “strongman” identity would be called into question in a manner not seen since Wagner Group’s aborted June 2023 coup attempt.This is not a hypothetical concern. Zelensky has issued a public order for retaliation. Moreover, the Ukrainian intelligence services have shown a sustained and scaled ability to operate clandestinely on Russian soil. Their capability in that regard has only grown as the war has continued. The FSB has been unable to trace attackers who have placed bombs under the cars of Russian generals in Moscow. It has failed to effectively infiltrate or interdict its HUR military intelligence sister service’s support networks.That’s a big problem. After all, while government facilities in Moscow are heavily guarded by air defense systems, Ukraine almost certainly has the ability to smuggle drone components into the Russian capital, then launch them before air defense networks could respond.Putin is smart. He knows the risks here. That he is willing to entertain them regardless shows how desperate he is to shake up the status quo. That desperation is understandable.Approximately 500,000 Russian soldiers have been killed since Putin began his invasion in February 2022. Yet, the frontline in eastern and southeastern Ukraine is essentially stalemated.At the same time, Ukrainian drone forces are launching more destructive attacks across Russia. Moscow, Putin’s home city of St. Petersburg, and major goods warehouses have all come under repeated attack. Russia’s energy infrastructure has been hit particularly hard, depriving Moscow of its key export resource and leading to domestic fuel shortages. The economy is fragile, having suffered major workforce shortages, depleted capital reserves, collapsing private investment, and sustained wage and goods inflation. Russia has a war economy that sacrifices long-term productivity for short-term military outputs.Putin’s ultimate challenge is that he is increasingly out of options.Putin can call up hundreds of thousands more men to the army, but doing so will worsen the economy and risk civil unrest while almost certainly failing to break Ukrainian defensive lines.TO REARM, THE MILITARY NEEDS MUCH MORE THAN MONEYPutin can threaten to use nuclear weapons or attack NATO, but the U.S. and its allies have been resolute in resisting that intimidation (his foolish regard for Putin notwithstanding, Trump has far more forcefully deterred Russian nuclear threats than either Joe Biden or Barack Obama).Putin can keep pretending that Russia is winning and that destiny will deliver Ukraine’s subjugation. But the longer the war persists, and the more Ukraine strikes back, the more likely China is to put immense economic pressure on Putin to negotiate.