Putin Tests NATO’s Article 5 Defense

Both the WSJ and Politico seem to have confirmed what most people seemed to have assumed – that Ratcliffe’s trip to Moscow this week was to warn Russia about its actions threatening NATO allies in Europe and in support of Iran. See Politico’s post.JOIN US ON TELEGRAMFollow our coverage of the war on the @Kyivpost_official. CIA chief warned Russia against attacks on NATO allies in secret Moscow visit https://t.co/6VaIl9kSq0— POLITICO (@politico) August 26, 2026 In the case of Europe, this comes after a string of Russian asymmetric, and kinetic, actions in NATO states – now regular drone incursions, plots uncovered to kill leaders of European military defense companies, suspicious attacks on Western arms factories and arms dumps, and even open threats by the Kremlin against the UK after London (and Paris on SCALP) opted to supply the blue prints for its Storm Shadow missiles to Ukraine.This past week also saw a major NATO air operation around the Baltic Sea, presumably in response to specific intelligence around some Russian escalation planned around the Russian enclave of Kaliningrad.The context seems to be that Putin’s war in Ukraine is not going well, as Ukraine has stabilized the front lines and is now increasingly successful in taking the war to Russia via deep strike drone attacks on refineries and on line retailer warehouses in Russia. Putin is worried and is escalating to try and force NATO to pull support for Ukraine and force Ukraine into a peace on his terms.All this raises a number of questions:First, what was the specific intel that the US received on Russia’s plans to attack NATO, or escalate in Ukraine, that prompted the Trump administration – that has typically given the Putin regime a pass/benefit of the doubt on all things Ukraine-related – to dispatch Ratcliffe to Moscow? Other Topics of Interest Tax Russia: Make the Beast Pay for Its Cage As Europe pours hundreds of billions into Ukraine’s defense and prepares for a costly military buildup, Russia continues to profit from global trade. Was it specific plans to test NATO’s borders and its Article 5 defense? Or perhaps evidence of an increased nuclear threat – Russia’s nuclear silos being exercised and primed ready for some nuclear use against Ukraine?Second, presumably Ratcliffe was sent to Moscow to read the riot act to the Kremlin and reassure that the US would still stand by its allies under NATO’s Article 5 defense. That message surely will have been dulled by the fact that President Trump seems to have gone overboard in recent years in questioning, challenging and undermining that very defense – so much so that in Europe most now question whether the US would actually come to Europe’s defense if attacked by Russia.I think Ratcliffe flying into Russia via Latvia was meant to send a strong message and perhaps indicates that the specific threat was to the Baltic states. But the real question here is if Bill Burns’s trip to Moscow as CIA director in 2021 to deliver a similar warning to the Kremlin (not to invade Ukraine) was ignored – what’s to think that Putin will not just ignore Ratcliffe this time? And especially given Trump’s efforts to weaken NATO.Third, we also hear that the US undersecretary at the Department of War, Elbridge Colby, is flying into Brussels to meet NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte, and brief NATO’s ambassadors – presumably about the Russian threat and Ratcliffe’s trip. This was all about being seen and signaling, in Europe as much as Russia. Quite unprecedented. Given Colby’s track record of complaining about NATO allies freeloading on the US defense backstop, I wonder if this is going to be a Ratcliffe-Colby one-two for Europe. Will the message be “Look, we identified this threat from Russia, had your back this time but you did not have ours on Iran, so you either get in line behind us or we are pulling our troops out of your countries and then good luck with Putin”?It might also be a message that we only have your back on Russia if you join Trump’s efforts in forcing a peace in Ukraine, on Ukraine – so going back to the Witkoff-Kushner 28-point plan, and the sell-out of Ukraine.One final point, and as John Bolton commented, Ratcliffe’s visit was not a clandestine operation. Flying a huge C17 to Moscow from Riga and then riding in convoy through central Moscow suggested Ratcliffe wanted to be seen and to make a splash. This was all about being seen and signaling, in Europe as much as Russia.Reprinted from the author’s tashecon blog. See the original here. The views expressed in this opinion article are the author’s and not necessarily those of Kyiv Post. Timothy Ash Timothy Ash is a London-based senior emerging markets sovereign strategist for Bluebay Asset Management Company.