Putin Has an Unexpected Ally in Ukraine’s War

Russian President Vladimir Putin has an unexpected ally in the war against Ukraine: a hotter and drier Europe.Extreme heat and drought are putting pressure on the backup systems Ukraine has relied on to keep its economy and infrastructure functioning as Russia attacks its ports, power plants, railways and bridges, Newsweek reported.JOIN US ON TELEGRAMFollow our coverage of the war on the @Kyivpost_official.Ukraine has repeatedly adapted by finding alternatives. When Russian attacks made Black Sea shipping dangerous, grain exports shifted to rail, roads and the Danube. When Russian strikes damaged power generation, Ukraine increased electricity imports from Europe. When rainfall declined, farmers turned to irrigation.But those alternatives are now facing pressure of their own.Russia targets Ukraine’s alternative routesRussia has intensified attacks on the infrastructure around Odesa and Ukraine’s alternative export routes.In July, Ukraine recorded 35 attacks on vessels in ports, 22 attacks on ships at sea and 67 strikes on port facilities, according to figures cited by Newsweek.Russia has also targeted infrastructure connecting Ukraine with alternative trade routes. On Aug. 9, Russian forces struck the Mayaki bridge, which links Odesa toward Moldova and Romania. The Institute for the Study of War assessed that the bridge was likely targeted to disrupt the land corridor used for maritime exports.At the same time, drought has weakened the Danube, another crucial route for Ukrainian exports. Other Topics of Interest Ust-Luga Ablaze Again as 54 Ukrainian Drones Hit Russia’s Key Baltic Oil Port Ust-Luga is Russia’s largest port on the Baltic Sea and a critical hub for Moscow’s oil and fuel exports. Its terminals handle crude oil, fuel oil, jet fuel and gasoil. An analysis by World Weather Attribution found that highly evaporative conditions in eastern Europe between January and June 2026 had become about 40 times more likely because of human-caused climate change.Ukrainian Agriculture Minister Taras Vysotsky told Reuters that slightly more than 30 million tons of grain and oilseeds could fail to reach international markets if the disruption continues.Rail and Danube routes together can handle only about a third of the capacity of Ukraine’s Black Sea ports, according to Vysotsky.Ukraine’s power system faces another testThe same problem is emerging in the energy sector.Russia sharply intensified its campaign against Ukraine’s power infrastructure in 2024. By early June, Ukraine had lost roughly 9 gigawatts of generating capacity.During a heatwave the following month, Kyiv reached 94 degrees Fahrenheit (34.4 degrees Celsius), while grid operator Ukrenergo introduced emergency power cuts in seven regions after an equipment failure worsened the electricity deficit.Ukraine has increasingly relied on the European power grid to compensate for domestic shortages. Electricity imports were 41% higher in February than in January, according to Newsweek.But Europe’s energy infrastructure is also vulnerable to extreme weather.By July, Ukraine had again become a net electricity exporter, with Hungary its largest customer. At the same time, Hungary’s Paks nuclear power plant was forced to reduce output to about 10% of capacity as low Danube water levels affected its cooling system.Romania faced similar problems at its Cernavoda nuclear plant. Authorities had to remove a rock obstruction, dredge the riverbed and use four rock-filled barges to redirect cooling water.On Aug. 11, the plant’s operator warned that Romania could be forced to shut down its last operating reactor despite the emergency measures.The examples show that some of the infrastructure Ukraine depends on for resilience is itself increasingly exposed to extreme weather.Heat and war are driving more firesUkraine’s experience with wildfires also illustrates how climate conditions can amplify the effects of war.Satellite data from the European Commission’s Joint Research Centre showed that about 965,000 hectares burned in Ukraine in 2024 – more than twice the area burned across the entire European Union that year.Most major fires occurred during hot, dry weather and were concentrated near the front line.A peer-reviewed study published in Fire Ecology found that rising temperatures and declining rainfall significantly increased fire activity, particularly in central, southern and eastern Ukraine.At the same time, Russia’s attacks create additional risks. Shelling and missiles can ignite farmland and grassland, while mines and unexploded ordnance make it more dangerous for firefighters to reach affected areas.Damaged roads and disrupted institutions can further delay emergency responses.Southern Ukraine faces a water crisisWater shortages could pose an even greater long-term challenge.Before the destruction of the Kakhovka Dam in June 2023, its reservoir supplied 31 irrigation systems across the Kherson, Zaporizhzhia and Dnipropetrovsk regions.In 2021, those irrigation systems helped produce around 4 million tons of grain and oilseeds.After the dam was destroyed, Ukraine’s Agriculture Ministry warned that at least 500,000 hectares deprived of irrigation could effectively become desert.The dam was destroyed while the area was under Russian occupation. Ukraine accused Russia of destroying it, while Russia blamed Ukraine.The Kakhovka Reservoir had also been the main source of cooling water for the Russian-occupied Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant, Europe’s largest nuclear facility.After the reservoir emptied, wells were used to provide replacement water, but they were insufficient. An International Atomic Energy Agency official told Reuters that water consumption would increase dramatically if all the reactors restarted.Russia faces climate risks tooRussia is also vulnerable to extreme weather.In 2025, roughly 1 million hectares of crops in the Rostov region were lost or damaged by drought or frost. The damage was severe enough for Moscow to elevate the agricultural emergency to the federal level.Newsweek noted that this context makes a recent Russian analysis particularly revealing.On Aug. 10, Anatoly Tikhonov, head of the Center for International Agribusiness and Food Security at the Russian Presidential Academy, published an essay through Russia’s state-run TASS news agency arguing that Europe’s agricultural difficulties could create an economic opportunity for Russia.Tikhonov argued that Europe could become more dependent on Ukrainian grain and food imports from South America, the United States and Russia as its own harvests suffer.He described the situation as an opportunity for Moscow to take advantage of the moment.Russia cannot control Europe’s climate, but the combination of extreme weather and attacks on Ukraine’s infrastructure could still work in Moscow’s favor.Ukraine has spent years building alternative routes and backup systems to reduce the impact of Russian attacks. But those alternatives now face two pressures simultaneously: Russia’s campaign against critical infrastructure and a hotter, drier and more volatile European climate.