Purple, red or bellwether? Ohio experts size up the state after Democratic wave

WASHINGTON — Ohio Democrats had a historic election night, winning nearly every statewide office and flipping several congressional seats that Republicans had held for years.But political analysts caution that Ohio’s dramatic switch towards Democrats amid a national backlash against GOP policies doesn’t make Ohio a purple state, or return it to its status as an electoral bellwether, after being regarded as solidly Republican.Low approval ratings for GOP President Donald Trump, as well as anger over cost of living issues and high gas prices tied to the war in Iran tipped voters towards Democrats nationwide, even in such GOP bastions as Kansas and Texas. “In a midterm wave environment like this, blue places get really blue, purple places get blue, and red places get purple,“ said Kyle Kondik, managing editor of the Sabato’s Crystal Ball political newsletter, who cautions against regarding this year’s results as indicative of a long-term trend.Ohio went from having Republicans control every statewide elected office to losing all of them except auditor on Tuesday. Democrat Amy Acton defeated Republican Vivek Ramaswamy for Ohio governor, and former Democratic U.S. Sen. Sherrod Brown beat Republican U.S. Sen. Jon Husted to return to his old job. Incumbent Republican U.S. Rep. Max Miller of Bay Village lost his re-election battle to Democratic former Brook Park council member Brian Poindexter, and Republican U.S. Rep. Mike Carey of Columbus lost his seat to Ohio State University professor Don Leonard. Longtime GOP U.S. Rep. Mike Turner of Dayton lost his seat to Democrat Kristina Knickerbocker, an Air Force veteran and oncology nurse practitioner.The state’s congressional delegation went from having five Democrats to eight -- a majority of its 15 congressional seats.University of Cincinnati political scientist David Niven cautions against “sweeping declarations” about permanent political shifts given the national tide, but said he found it significant that Mahoning County -- which voted Democrat until Trump won it over -- returned to Democrats this year.He observed that Trump wooed that region near Youngstown by promising to return the Mahoning Valley to its industrial heyday. Despite those promises remaining unfulfilled, Niven said its voters backed Trump until this year.For around a century, ending with the 2012 election, he said Ohio was regarded as a bellwether that reliably predicted presidential results given that its economy was a miniature version of the United States.Whether Ohio will be a purple, bellwether state hinges on whether people are voting “old school economics,” he said. If votes hinge more on identity politics and demographic issues, Ohio is less representative of the rest of the country because it is white, older and less educated than elsewhere. When those issues predominate, Ohio favors Republicans, Niven said.“If folks are going to vote economic accountability, this is a competitive state, and we could well be the fulcrum of the 2028 presidential election,” said Niven. University of Akron political scientist David B. Cohen argues Ohio was never actually a deep red state and agrees with Niven that it could return to becoming a focus of presidential campaigning.He notes Ohio voted twice for Democrat Barack Obama before backing Trump consistently and thinks its mix of big cities and suburbs and farm country makes it “more representative of the country as a whole” than more homogenous deep-red states like Mississippi or Alabama.He attributes a measure of past GOP dominance over Ohio’s legislature and seats in Congress to gerrymandered legislative and congressional districts meant to protect Republicans, that camouflaged the state’s more Democratic leanings.The fact that Democrats have made inroads this year could make Ohio a “second-tier” presidential battleground. During the 2024 race, he said presidential campaigns invested in just seven states.“I think that map’s going to expand in 2028,” Cohen said.Former Baldwin Wallace University political scientist Tom Sutton says Ohio has always been a purple state, and that dissatisfaction with Trump, the war in Iran, and pocketbook issues helped its competitive nature to reemerge.While he believes Ohio is a purple state, he doesn’t think the state is a bellwether. He said states like Kansas, Iowa, South Carolina and Texas, which elected Democrats during this election cycle, all had unique circumstances that contributed to those results, “so it’s not a pattern that necessarily a bellwether will tell you.”“A bellwether implies your state or region is a mirror for how the rest of the country is voting,” Sutton continues. “I don’t think you can make that kind of claim when you look at the diversity of outcomes and reasons for those outcomes around the country.”Kondik is not convinced that Ohio will return to swing-state status. He believes Ohio is a Republican state but can trend Democrat in a “midterm wave environment.” ”Presidential elections ‘shuffle the deck,’ and can change political coalitions," adds Kondik, author of a book titled “The Bellwether: Why Ohio Picks the President.”“Maybe 2028 develops in such a way that the political coalitions change, and that impacts Ohio and makes it more competitive,” he said.