Progressive El-Sayed secures Michigan Senate nomination with narrow win

(CN) — The Democratic Party’s shift away from moderate candidates continued Wednesday as Abdul El-Sayed won the Michigan Senate primary by 1% of the vote over U.S. Representative Haley Stevens.Fueled by anti-Trump sentiment and dissatisfaction with the status quo, Michigan Democrats opted for the message of El-Sayed, a physician and public health official endorsed by Senator Bernie Sanders and other national progressive voices.With 99% of the votes in Michigan counted, El-Sayed tallied 740,950 votes, or 48.5% of the total, while Stevens was narrowly behind with 726,057 votes, or 47.5% of the total.Anthony Jesuale, political science professor at Central Michigan University, lauded El-Sayed’s ability to draw out voters.“He brought people to the table to vote in a primary who don’t regularly vote in a primary, or who haven’t had the chance to vote in a primary,” Jesuale said. “And that’s a hard thing to do, especially when you are at an advertising deficit — and it’s a lot harder to reach people today in a very bifurcated media environment.”Republican and former U.S. Representative Mike Rogers ran unopposed in the GOP primary and said in a statement several weeks ago that he “looks forward to beating whichever America-hating socialist prevails” in the Democratic primary.Stevens conceded the race and congratulated her opponent in a statement.“I want to congratulate Abdul El-Sayed on winning the Democratic nomination for U.S. Senate. He is a doctor, a community health official, a Rhodes Scholar and a dedicated Michigander. I am proud to offer my support as he takes on Mike Rogers in the general election,” she said.In a race that pitted an establishment candidate against one of the faces of the Democratic Socialist movement, El-Sayed’s victory will likely have ramifications on the party as a whole.“The baseline Democratic Party in the cities and suburbs is trending a bit more progressive than it has in the past,” Jesuale said. “The interesting thing in this battle for the Democratic soul is that in areas where you wouldn’t think Sayed would find success — whether because of name recognition or being an Arabic and Muslim candidate — he found strong success in places like the upper peninsula and won the majority of the counties.“Is this the death knell for moderate Democrats? Surely not, but what it means is that Michigan sees itself as more comfortable with electing a more progressive candidate,” he said.In the Republican primary for governor, John James cruised to a 15-point victory over businessman Perry Johnson.James, who was endorsed by President Donald Trump, garnered 465,170 votes, or 50%, well ahead of Johnson’s 327,320, or 35.2%.Mike Cox, former Michigan attorney general, finished a distant third with 13% of the total.James, the U.S. representative for Michigan’s 10th District, lost U.S. Senate elections in 2018 and 2020. He will face Democrat Jocelyn Benson, Michigan’s secretary of state, in the general election in November.Benson easily defeated her only challenger in the primary, Genesee County Sheriff Chris Swanson, with 83.1% of the votes.Both Benson and James have good name recognition, but Jesuale believes Benson has more momentum because of Trump’s low approval ratings.“The tilt that is common in midterm elections for the party opposing the president is going to be probably the thing that carries the day,” he said. “James barely ticked past 50% of the vote, and there are conversations within the Republican Party that question James’ potential.”Trump’s endorsement was likely crucial in the primary, but Jesuale emphasized it may not be enough in November.He cited Amir Hassan, a congressional candidate backed by Trump who lost to Thomas Smith, an opponent who stopped campaigning and endorsed another Republican three weeks before the primary.“It’s a weird year on the Republican side, and there are cracks in the Republican unity,” Jesuale said.The Michigan Secretary of State’s office said over 1.6 million people cast a ballot Tuesday, or 21.8% of registered voters — a relatively high number for a primary.“Primaries are always hard to judge, but turnout is one of the things you can always hang your hat on that at least means something,” Jesuale said.As the focus shifts to the general election, Michigan’s seat is seen as indispensable if Democrats want to regain control of the Senate. Jesuale believes El-Sayed can garner enough support to win.“Stevens’ strongest argument to Democrats was that she was electable, which makes for good campaign fodder, but what makes someone electable is getting support,” Jesuale said. “In a general election, that means getting people to turn out. Benson will largely be supported in Michigan and she will drive some of those moderates who might be on the fence with El-Sayed to the polling booth, and I imagine a good number of them will probably just vote straight ticket.”Trump’s 2024 victory in Michigan was partially due to a lack of young voters, according to Jesuale, who believes El-Sayed will solve that issue for Democrats.Jesuale also said El-Sayed’s Muslim background should help secure votes in Dearborn, a Detroit suburb with a large Muslim population, as opposed to Stevens, whose connections with Israel and AIPAC would have presented a stumbling block.“What Democrats do have to do is shore up support in Flint and Detroit, where El-Sayed seemed to underperform, but in an election where it’s just Democrat or Republican on the ballot, it will work in El-Sayed’s favor and get support that you are not necessarily seeing in a primary,” Jesuale said.Subscribe to our free newslettersOur weekly newsletter Closing Arguments offers the latest about ongoing trials, major litigation and rulings in courthouses around the U.S. and the world, while the monthly Under the Lights dishes the legal dirt from Hollywood, sports, Big Tech and the arts.Additional Reads