Prime Picks: MVP MMA & UFC Vegas 117

This will be the last time we lead with the explanation that we at Sherdog have decided to slightly retool our Prime Picks betting franchise. We remain constantly active for major events, such as the regular in-depth “Shillan & Duffy” preview show and the “Sheehan Show” for all sorts of related matters including betting. With those official sources for picks handled, we thought we would take the edge off here and get a bit lighter with our breakdowns. The industry of sports betting is exploding before our very eyes, with billions of dollars pumping in since legalization stateside. Oftentimes, those driving the lines are right on the money with their openings, valuations and analyses. Occasionally, they are way off, or otherwise merit some additional conversation. That is where we come in with this reinvigorated series of Prime Picks, where we crack into the recent Ultimate Fighting Championship offering and proceed into MVP “Rousey vs. Carano” accordingly. The gloves are off. Sean Brady, from -170 to +200 Before we dive into this weekend’s action—and there is not much that jumps off the page—we should turn back at an odd occurrence from UFC 328. The event proceeded swimmingly, relative to one’s expectation, except for one glaring scene. On fight night, fans and media woke up to the betting lines involving Sean Brady and Joaquin Buckley going on a rampage. This absent of any funny business is not highly unusual, as big money tends to come on most often on fight night. Where things took a turn, or we thought they did, is when sportsbooks started disabling their ways to bet on this match. FanDuel and DraftKings both removed all betting options, props or otherwise, on either of these two athletes. Moneylines still remained, but it was claimed they were being sternly limited. This alone let us know something was wrong, but we still didn’t know what. We spouted off to social media to inform the public, further spreading the gospel that sunlight is the greatest disinfectant. Rumor has it that Brady went into the match with a compromised knee, or possibly that his nose was jacked up. As it turned out, this was either a false flag or some other bit of misinformation, as Brady performed admirably in the cage in arguably his best effort to date. Buckley never stood a chance, and neither did those converted bettors who thought they could follow a trend and make a quick buck. We don’t know the reason for these line shifts all the time, but we very well can see them subject to manipulation. Imagine someone trying to run up the line on the other side to rip people off. This sports betting stuff needs to get reined in, and fast.Ronda Rousey vs. Gina Carano Lasts Under 1.5 Rounds (-195) Let’s be honest, if this thing that MVP MMA productions is doing ends up with a headliner longer than a round and a half, they have an entirely different problem on their hands. Nothing would be worse from a fledgling promotion perspective than to let fans and audiences go home unfulfilled, like they wasted their time. It may not always feel this way, but there is something oddly satisfying about Ultimate Fighting Championship play-by-play guru Jon Anik telling me he and the UFC do not take my viewership for granted. If Carano-Rousey drags out, it better be the type of smack-down, drag-out brawl that make us think the famed slugfest from “They Live” was a dainty slap fight. But it won’t be that. How could it be? What in either of their careers, ones that ended in 2009 and 2016, would indicate to us that these two have the physical or psychological wherewithal to engage in that kind of back-and-forth mollywhoppery? It’s all power vs. technique here, but the biggest question may be about the weight of the athletes and not the fight itself. Should, say, Carano come in at 152 pounds, this whole shindig could fall apart like Affliction. Perhaps as an indictment of the product, but our third category is not going to be touching on the feeble UFC Vegas 117 at all. Instead, we want to circle back to this new organization that will be airing on Netflix this Saturday. Due to a likely lack of available options, this is about as good of a product as one can expect. Trying to poach from major organizations, waiting for a good name to go on a rough patch to scoop them quick, that is not as much a game plan as a symphony of destruction. If only Megadeth played their first show—they are instead saving that performance for BKFC’s Sturgis fight card, and that’s not even a bad joke. One the one hand, the matchmaker may need to be applauded for luring the likes of Salahdine Parnasse and Jason Jackson into its ranks. On the other, there is no way they will be able to keep them on exclusive contracts without flashing some serious cash. This first show is merely a proof of concept, one that Netflix could subsequent avoid should they take a bath here. This means it may be an expensive one-off, to say nothing about future efforts. The reason for this diatribe? The betting lines that have formed around the matchups. Those in the betting populace find them largely to be noncompetitive. Bettors do not know everything. Look at Brady shutting down the naysayers last week. Who else was largely expected to lose at UFC 328? +335 underdog Sean Strickland. Who didn’t? Ateba Abega Gautier, who closed anywhere from -1200 to -1800, and he washed Osman Diaz. More of the MVP MMA bouts on paper and from a betting perspective appear uncompetitive. Francis Ngannou is as high as -2000 against poor Philipe Lins. This gives openings to throw who want to try their luck at underdog plays, but good luck with that. The average betting line for this show is just under -700 a head. It would be a shock to see more than one or two upsets in this context. Consistency and branding are better than letting the chips fall where they may.