Preview: UFC Abu Dhabi ‘Ankalaev vs. Guskov’

It might not be the regular stop that it was for the Ultimate Fighting Championship five years ago, but Abu Dhabi still represents a major gateway to the Octagon for up-and-coming fighters from the region. “Fight Island,” as the promotion branded resort destination Yas Island in 2020, introduced Western fans to future stars, champs and contenders including Khamzat Chimaev and “Shara Bullet” Magomedov, which in turn led to such organizations as Brave CF and UAE Warriors becoming first-call feeder orgs for the UFC. While the UFC has broadened its footprint in the region, putting on events in Saudi Arabia, Azerbaijan and Qatar in recent years, the United Arab Emirates is still a reliable once or twice a year destination and the cards are still rich with promising prospects, as well as veteran fighters who in some cases have difficulty obtaining visas to travel to the U.S. or Western Europe for fights. UFC Fight Night 282 goes down Saturday at Etihad Arena. Headlined by a Dagestan vs. Uzbekistan light heavyweight contenders’ matchup and featuring a half dozen blue-chip prospects from the Middle East and Central Asia, UFC Abu Dhabi is a solid example of the UFC’s offerings in the UAE in the latter half of the 2000s. Here is the preview for the six-fight main card: Light Heavyweights Magomed Ankalaev (20-2-1, 1 NC) vs. Bogdan Guskov (18-3-1) BETTING ODDS: Ankalaev (-500); Guskov (+375) Ten months after his crushing loss to Alex Pereira in their title rematch at UFC 320, Ankalaev returns to the cage with plenty to prove against rising contender Guskov, who will step up on two weeks’ notice into the biggest opportunity of his career. “Big Ank” has had one of the weirdest UFC runs of any top fighter in recent memory. From the moment he appeared in early 2018 as a 25-year-old, 8-0 prospect, he had obvious championship upside, and in a light heavyweight division that is always desperate for new contenders, it seemed entirely plausible that he could win four or five fights and be in the title picture within two years. That it took him seven years and 15 fights to actually win the belt is a reflection not of his talent but of his propensity for misfortune. The dour Dagestani was immediately one of the most dominant fighters in the division but always seemed to stumble at the worst possible times. The shocking loss to Paul Craig in his UFC debut, in which he blundered into a triangle choke at the literal last second of a fight he had otherwise been winning easily, set the tone for his cursed career arc. Bizarre controversies in his fights with Ion Cutelaba and Johnny Walker obliged him to waste nearly a full year of his athletic prime rematching far inferior fighters, like a double helping of the old Frank Mir-Wes Sims rivalry. When he finally made his way to a shot at the vacant title in December 2022, an extremely iffy majority draw against Jan Blachowicz left the belt ownerless—and left Ankalaev so frustrated that he briefly threatened retirement. Ankalaev finally had his moment in the sun last March at UFC 313, nullifying Alex Pereira across 25 workmanlike minutes for a surprisingly easy-looking title win. Even more surprising was the rematch in October, in which a grouchy and rejuvenated “Poatan” needed just 80 seconds to take the belt back in what looked more like an alleyway mugging than a title fight between two pound-for-pound talents. That brings us up to this weekend and Ankalaev’s first fight since the Pereira loss. “Poatan” has moved up to heavyweight and the vacant title was contested in April by Carlos Ulberg and Jiri Prochazka, two men that Ankalaev has yet to face, so a convincing win in Abu Dhabi may well send him right back to the front of the line, especially since Ulberg injured his leg badly in victory. In terms of physicality, skill set and approach, Ankalaev is one of the more complete fighters in the history of the division. He is very big, with a huge wingspan, and while he doesn’t have the outlandish athleticism of a Prochazka, Walker or Alonzo Menifield, he is deceptively fast and fluid. On the feet, he is a technically sound orthodox kickboxer who uses a long jab, low kicks and solid footwork to leverage his size and reach. While he doesn’t employ them too often, Ankalaev is capable of uncorking a fast, accurate head kick even in surprisingly close quarters, as he did in sparking Dalcha Lungiambula in one of his early UFC fights. When shorter opponents force the issue by cutting off the cage or simply crashing the pocket, Ankalaev has good short-range weapons including knees and uppercuts. However, he is also perfectly content to clinch, slowing the action to a crawl, forcing the other man to carry his considerable weight and smothering all the air right out of his opponent—and often the arena. The same goes for Ankalaev’s ground game. While his wrestling is not quite as elite as his Dagestani roots might imply, he has a simple but effective takedown game built around snatch single-leg entries, body locks and trips from the clinch. When he gets an opponent onto the canvas, he is very heavy on top, positionally sound and can advance position smoothly. However, just as it is in the clinch, his goal on the ground often seems to be staying just busy enough to avoid a referee restart. Put simply, Ankalaev does not care if you boo. It’s actually ironic that so many strange things happen in Ankalaev’s fights, because in a division where even most of the top contenders are hyperaggressive maniacs with questionable defense and fight IQ, he stands out as a conservative, methodical stick in the mud. If Ankalaev showed up in the UFC as a surefire future contender, then took the scenic route to get there, Guskov is the opposite: a middling prospect who arrived to little or no fanfare but went on to quietly earn his way to the doorstep of a title shot. The 33-year-old from Uzbekistan carried a four-fight win streak, all finishes inside of two rounds, into his own draw with Blachowicz last December, though in Guskov’s case, that result was the best he could reasonably have hoped for. They had been scheduled to run it back next weekend at UFC Belgrade, but when Khalil Rountree Jr. withdrew from his matchup with Ankalaev, Guskov got the short-notice call. Guskov’s basic approach is about as fancy as a sledgehammer. He is of average height for the division but powerfully built, and he marches forward throwing heat. While he has some good kicks in his arsenal, he does his best work wading into the pocket and winging power punches with both hands. He is there to be hit himself, but he is durable, sneakily good at parrying or rolling with his opponent’s punches, and hits hard enough that he is almost always the last one standing. Guskov’s offense is built around staying on the feet in that middle boxing range. His ground game is a largely unknown quantity, and he would evidently prefer to keep it that way. In six UFC fights, he has never tried for a takedown, and while his defensive wrestling stats look mediocre on paper, it has yet to truly cost him. It is understandable that Ankalaev is a huge favorite in this fight. He is a bit bigger and a better athlete, with a much more well-rounded skill set and the ability to take over a fight by dictating the range, location and pace. He has more high-level experience and far, far more big fight experience: Guskov’s draw against Blachowicz was only the second time in his career that he had been to a third round, and the first this decade. Meanwhile, Ankalaev has had four five-round main event fights in the last four years. There is upset potential here: Guskov is one of the hardest hitters in the entire UFC and his aggressive approach usually gives him an honest chance to put that power on his opponent’s chin. Ankalaev is smart and defensively sound, but he does get hit cleanly in the pocket a few times a fight—not to mention he might be due for another slip-on-the-banana-peel moment. However, the most likely scenario is that Ankalaev’s movement and distance management frustrate Guskov. Given a round or two of chasing Ankalaev and eating counters, Guskov’s relative lack of experience in deep waters will start to tell on him and the Dagestani will turn up the intensity just a notch. The pick is Ankalaev by third-round TKO. Jump To » Ankalaev vs. Guskov Erceg vs. Temirov Dulatov vs. Turman Rzepecki vs. Zaynukov Kuniev vs. Fortune Izagakhmaev vs. Vagaev The Prelims