Predicting AP Top 25 college basketball rankings: Florida edges Duke, Illinois for No. 1 in preseason poll

One of the most difficult exercises to do every year before the start of the college basketball season is to predict what the preseason AP Top 25 poll will look like when it is dropped for the first time. The 2026-27 season is even more challenging because a majority of the teams on this list have at least one impactful player who may or may not be eligible due to pending five-for-five lawsuits.Keeping up with players who are eligible one day and ineligible the next this offseason has been a headache in itself. Take a team such as Texas Tech. The Red Raiders could see Donovan Atwell, Darrion Williams and Jamichael Stillwell all suit up this season if they're granted a fifth year. If Texas Tech is at full strength, they should be a consensus top 10 team. Instead, I have the Red Raiders at No. 23 in the preseason projections because who knows how voters will decide whether to factor in those three players. Texas Tech certainly isn't alone. There are key players throughout the sport whose eligibility has a chance to swing a team at least a good half dozen spots in preseason projections. 2026-27 CBS Sports Preseason All-America Teams: Thomas Haugh, Jeremy Fears Jr., Tyran Stokes among top stars Gary Parrish Here is what we do know: Florida will be the preseason No. 1 team for the first time since 2006. The Gators are going to be the team to beat in college basketball this season after returning four starters from a team that was a No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament in 2026 and won the national title the year before. After that, Duke and Illinois are widely expected to occupy the No. 2 and 3 spots in the poll. We are confident in where those three teams will be heading into what should be a very exciting season.This recurring post is normally called Tomorrow's Top 25 Today, though this time it comes a few days early with the AP preseason Top 25 poll set to be released Monday. Let's dive in, starting with the team expected to be the consensus preseason No. 1. 1. Florida GatorsLast season's final ranking: 9Florida returns Boogie Fland, Thomas Haugh, Alex Condon, Rueben Chinyelu and Urban Klavzar from a team that won 27 games and earned a No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament for the second consecutive year. As of now, Denzel Aberdeen — who transferred from Florida to Kentucky and then back to Florida this offseason — is eligible to play after being granted a temporary injunction last month. The Gators have arguably the most talented starting lineup in college basketball with Aberdeen in the fold and should receive a majority of the first-place votes. Key fifth-year players in eligibility limbo: Denzel Aberdeen Florida cements status as clear preseason No. 1 after Denzel Aberdeen is cleared to play for 2026-27 season Cameron Salerno 2. Duke Blue DevilsLast season's final ranking: 4Duke has one of the deepest rosters in college basketball, headlined by the return of Caleb Foster, Cayden Boozer, Patrick Ngongba II, and Dame Sarr. The Blue Devils also have several newcomers to keep an eye on, including star transfer John Blackwell, from Wisconsin and freshman big man Joaquim Boumtje Boumtje, who could be the No. 1 overall pick in the 2028 NBA Draft. The Blue Devils can legit go 10-deep on any given night and should be the favorite to land at No. 2 in the poll.Key fifth-year players in eligibility limbo: None 3. Illinois Fighting IlliniLast season's final ranking: 5Illinois reached the Final Four for the first time since 2005 and returned 65.4% of its scoring production from last season, which is tied for No. 1 among all Big Ten teams. David Mirković, Andrej Stojaković, Zvonimir Ivišić and Jake Davis are the key returners, while Providence transfer Stefan Vaaks and five-star guard Quentin Coleman project as key pieces.Key fifth-year players in eligibility limbo: None 4. UConn HuskiesLast season's final ranking: 2UConn reached the Final Four for the third time in four years this past season. Alex Karaban, one of the winningest players of this era, is no longer with the program, but UConn does have a lot to be excited about because of the continuity returning to the roster. Braylon Mullins and Silas Demary Jr. are back, and both have a chance to win Big East Player of the Year this season. Key fifth-year players in eligibility limbo: None 5. Texas LonghornsLast season's final ranking: 22Texas was the "Cinderella" of last season's NCAA Tournament as the lone double-digit seed to reach the Sweet 16. Heading into Year 2 of the Sean Miller era, the expectations will be higher than ever after Texas brought back star big man Matas Vokietaitis and landed David Punch and Isaiah Johnson in the transfer portal. Texas also landed Marcus Spears Jr., the top-ranked player in the 2027 recruiting class by 247Sports, before he reclassified up to join the Longhorns one year early.Key fifth-year players in eligibility limbo: None 6. Michigan State SpartansLast season's final ranking: 11Michigan State is among the teams returning the most production from last season. MSU's roster is headlined by star guard Jeremy Fears Jr., who was named CBS preseason National Player of the Year. The Spartans also return Coen Carr, Jordan Scott and Cam Ward.Key fifth-year players in eligibility limbo: None Big Ten basketball preseason poll, predictions 2026-27: Michigan, Purdue overrated; USC, Iowa underrated Cameron Salerno 7. Arizona WildcatsLast season's final ranking: 3Arizona reached the Final Four for the first time since 2001 and locked up coach Tommy Lloyd to a multi-year extension after he was courted by North Carolina. The Wildcats brought back two projected first-round picks in Motiejus Krivas and Ivan Kharchenkov and signed five-star guard Caleb Holt, who could be a top-three pick this summer. Arizona does have a hole at power forward in the lineup, which could be filled if Clemson transfer RJ Godfrey is granted an extra year of eligibility. Key fifth-year players in eligibility limbo: RJ Godfrey Bryce James starts, projected top-three pick Caleb Holt shines in Arizona's first exhibition game Cameron Salerno 8. Miami Hurricanes Last season's final ranking: 24Miami was one of the biggest surprises of last season under first-year coach Jai Lucas. The Hurricanes finished third in the ACC standings, won 26 games and reached the second round of the NCAA Tournament. With Shelton Henderson coming back and Miami adding Acaden Lewis and Somto Cyril via the transfer portal, this roster is even better than last season's. What would make Miami a consensus top-10 team is if Malik Reneau, Miami's leading scorer from last season, is granted a fifth year.Key fifth-year players in eligibility limbo: Malik Reneau 9. Louisville CardinalsLast season's final ranking: 23Louisville spent big this offseason to improve its roster. The Cardinals landed Kansas transfer Flory Bidguna, the top-ranked player available in the portal, and also added Jackson Shelstad, Karter Knox and Álvaro Folgueiras. Those four players should be in line to start next to returning guard Adrian Wooley. However, if Seth Trimble is granted a fifth season, the former UNC star will almost certainly slot into the starting lineup. Key fifth-year players in eligibility limbo: Seth Trimble and LJ Wells 10. Virginia CavaliersLast season's final ranking: 17Virginia is coming off a season in which it won 30 games for the first time in over a decade in Ryan Odum's first season at the helm. The Cavaliers return star forward Thijs De Ridder, who was named CBS Sports' preseason ACC Player of the Year. Key fifth-year players in eligibility limbo: None ACC expert picks: 2026-27 projected order of finish, preseason predictions, top players to watch Cameron Salerno 11. Kansas JayhawksLast season's final ranking: 20Kansas will have the top-ranked high school basketball player on its roster for the second consecutive season. Last season, Darryn Peterson appeared in just 24 games for the Jayhawks. Kansas will hope Tyran Stokes, the projected No. 1 pick in the 2027 NBA Draft and the preseason Big 12 Player of the Year by CBS Sports, will lead the program to a deeper run in the NCAA Tournament. Kansas hasn't made it out of the first weekend of the NCAA Tournament since 2022, the year the program won the national title. Key fifth-year players in eligibility limbo: Tre White and Melvin Council Jr. 2026-27 CBS Sports Preseason All-Freshman Team: Kansas' Tyran Stokes earns Freshman of the Year honors Cameron Salerno 12. Tennessee VolunteersLast season's final ranking: 12Tennessee put together one of the top transfer portal classes in the country, headlined by the addition of former Wake Forest star Juke Harris. Tennessee also welcomes in Terrence Hill Jr., Jalen Haralson, Dai Dai Ames and Tyler Lundblade. If Vanderbilt transfer Jalen Washington is ruled eligible, he could slot at the five.Key fifth-year players in eligibility limbo: Jalen Washington 13. Gonzaga BulldogsLast season's final ranking: 18Gonzaga is one of several teams in the teens that could be ranked higher (or lower) than this, depending on who is ruled eligible. The Bulldogs are entering a new era as members of the Pac-12 after a long run of dominance in the WCC. Gonzaga returns star forward Braden Huff, who has All-American potential after averaging 17.8 points and 5.6 rebounds in 18 games last season. Key fifth-year players in eligibility limbo: Xaivian Lee, Javon Bennett and Chauncey Wiggins 14. Arkansas RazorbacksLast season's final ranking: 13This is John Calipari's most talented roster since he took over Arkansas in 2024. The lone impact returner from last year's team that reached the Sweet 16 for the second consecutive season under Coach Cal is Billy Richmond III, who is one of the most athletic players in the sport. The Razorbacks have several newcomers to be excited about, but none should be more impactful than Jordan Smith Jr., who is a projected top-three pick in the 2027 NBA Draft. Arkansas' roster is young and inexperienced, but it is extremely talented.Key fifth-year players in eligibility limbo: None 15. Houston CougarsLast season's final ranking: 7The key names to know on this Houston roster are Joseph Tugler, one of the best defenders in college basketball, and LSU transfer Dedan Thomas Jr. Houston is still waiting to see whether former Texas guard Chendall Weaver will be eligible. If he is, he would be a perfect fit for Kelvin Sampson's defense-first identity. Key fifth-year players in eligibility limbo: Chendall Weaver 16. St. John's Red StormLast season's final ranking: 10St. John's was busy in the transfer portal this offseason and landed former Baylor standout Tounde Yessoufou, who is set to be one of the most improved returners in the sport. St. John's also landed a commitment from former Syracuse forward Donnie Freeman, but an Achilles tear suffered earlier this offseason means he will miss the entire 2026-27 season. What will make-or-break St. John's chances is if Auburn big man Keyshawn Hall is ruled eligible. Former Olimpia Milano guard Quinn Ellis was cleared by the NCAA on Tuesday.Key fifth-year players in eligibility limbo: Keyshawn Hall Prized St. John's point guard Quinn Ellis cleared by NCAA: Ex-EuroLeague product poised to shine in Big East Isaac Trotter 17. Michigan WolverinesLast season's final ranking: 1The reigning national champions have had quite the offseason. Dusty May departed to become the coach of the Dallas Mavericks on the eve of the 2026 NBA Draft and star freshman Brandon McCoy Jr. suffered a torn ACL during the Wolverines' European Tour. Elliot Cadeau is the lone starter from Michigan's title team returning, but the outlook could change if Roddy Gayle Jr. — a key reserve from last year's squad — is granted a fifth year. Trey McKenney, another key reserve from last season's title team, should be one of the top breakout candidates in college basketball to monitor.Key fifth-year players in eligibility limbo: Roddy Gayle Jr. Michigan basketball gets a massive win: Roddy Gayle awarded a fifth year by judge in critical court case Matt Norlander 18. UCLA BruinsLast season's final ranking: NRThe buzz around UCLA is real this season after the Bruins landed Serbian standout Nikola Kusturica late in the offseason. Kusturica doesn't meet the NBA's age requirements to declare for the 2027 draft, meaning he will have to play at least two seasons of college basketball. UCLA also returns Xavier Booker, Trent Perry and Eric Dailey Jr. Key fifth-year players in eligibility limbo: None 19. Missouri TigersLast season's final ranking: NRIf you're not familiar with incoming freshman guard Jason Crowe Jr., it might be time to familiarize yourself. Crowe was the most prolific scorer in high school basketball and should put up serious numbers at Missouri. The Tigers benefited from five-for-five chaos when Mark Mitchell backed off his commitment from Kentucky to return to Mizzou, where he has a better chance of being granted a fifth season of eligibility. If Mitchell is cleared, Missouri will be ranked much higher by mid-November.Key fifth-year players in eligibility limbo: Mark Mitchell Court ruling leaves Mark Mitchell, other fifth-year college athletes in eligibility limbo David Cobb 20. Iowa State CyclonesLast season's final ranking: 8Will star guard Tamin Lipsey be eligible this season? That's the biggest question surrounding Iowa State heading into the season that could determine how high T. J. Otzelberger's team is ranked. Lipsey's eligibility looms large because Killyan Toure is expected to miss the start of the season after undergoing shoulder surgery earlier this offseason.Key fifth-year players in eligibility limbo: Tamin Lipsey 21. Kentucky WildcatsLast season's final ranking: NRKentucky ended up being one of the most disappointing teams of last season after a second-round exit in the NCAA Tournament. The Wildcats loaded up in the portal, headlined by the addition of sharpshooting forward Milan Momcilovic. UK big man Malachi Moreno is a breakout candidate to monitor this season after posting impressive numbers as a freshman. Key fifth-year players in eligibility limbo: None 22. USC TrojansLast season's final ranking: NRThis season will be Eric Musselman's most talented roster by far since he took the job at USC back in 2024. Getting back Rodney Rice, Jacob Cofie, and Alijah Arenas — a name to keep an eye on for the 2027 draft — was a massive win for Musselman and his staff. The Trojans missed out on the NCAA Tournament during Musselman's first two seasons on the job, but that drought should end in 2027.Key fifth-year players in eligibility limbo: None 23. Texas Tech Red RaidersLast season's final ranking: 21If you told me that Atwell, Williams and Stillwell were eligible, I would have Texas Tech in the 6-8 range. However, because of the eligibility limbo and All-American big man JT Toppin expected to return sometime in 2027, Texas Tech should begin the season in the late teens or early 20s. When this roster is at full strength, it will challenge Arizona for the Big 12 title.Key fifth-year players in eligibility limbo: Donovan Atwell, Darrion Williams and Jamichael Stillwell 24. Alabama Crimson TideLast season's final ranking: 16Alabama got a boost to its roster when Aden Holloway was officially reinstated. Holloway, who was the Crimson Tide's second-leading scorer last season, didn't play in the NCAA Tournament due to felony drug charges. With Holloway back and Amari Allen expected to take a big Year 2 jump — similar to what Labaron Philon Jr. did during his sophomore season — Alabama will be competitive in a loaded SEC.Key fifth-year players in eligibility limbo: None Alabama reinstates Aden Holloway: Crimson Tide star suspended for first two games of the 2026-27 season Cameron Salerno 25. BYU CougarsLast season's final ranking: NRAfter Robert Wright III initially entered the transfer portal earlier this offseason, he decided to withdraw and return to BYU. That decision raised the ceiling of what this roster could look like. BYU will feature Wright, Kentucky transfer Collin Chandler, and incoming five-star wing Bruce Branch III. The Cougars are also awaiting to see if Michigan State big man Jaxon Kohler will be eligible. If he is, BYU will be very competitive in the Big 12. Key fifth-year players in eligibility limbo: Jaxon Kohler