Poll shows Democrat ahead in Kansas US Senate race

The race has long been considered a toss-up — but as Republicans falter nationally, Democrat Adam Hamilton is pulling ahead.(CN) — In its final look at Kansas voters this election year, an Emerson College poll found 49% of Sunflower State voters are backing Democrat Adam Hamilton, while 45% favor incumbent Republican U.S. Senator Roger Marshall.As undecided voters make up their minds, polling by Emerson and others has looked increasingly rosy for Hamilton, who has risen four percentage points from 45% to 49%. Marshall has only gained two points, going from 43% to 45%.David Graham, the Libertarian candidate, has support of 3% of voters. Another 3% are undecided, the nonpartisan research organization reported Friday. The poll has a credibility interval (similar to a margin of error) of 3.5%.“Independents break for Hamilton, 59% to 25%," Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, said in a news release — a whopping 17-point increase among the group since last month.Incumbent U.S. Senator Roger Marshall was elected to the office in 2020, representing this normally deep-red state.Hamilton is a senior pastor at Church of the Resurrection megachurch in the Kansas City suburb of Leawood. Neither campaign immediately responded to requests for comment on Friday.The poll isn’t so hot for Democrats in the governor’s race, where Democrat Cindy Holscher is polling at 46% compared to Republican Ty Masterson at 50%. Four percent of voters are undecided.Richard Witmer, a political science professor in neighboring Nebraska, has been following the race with his students.While momentum is on Hamilton’s side, Witmer said he would still classify the race as a toss-up.“There’s just so much momentum in his direction right now,” said Witmer, of Creighton University in Omaha. “The momentum may be enough, with the national conditions and everything, to sweep Hamilton into office.”With a focus on affordability, Hamilton has spoken out against planned Medicare cuts that will fall hard on rural Kansans. Contrast that with Marshall, an OB-GYN who has reportedly sued patients who couldn’t pay their bills.On Thursday, a class action by patients accused Marshall of charging illegal interest rates on medical bills.It’s an us-vs.-them dynamic, Witmer said. “If you are a doctor going after patients for small amounts of money, that’s setting that divide up.”Then there’s the GOP elephant in the room: President Donald Trump himself.A majority of Kansans voted for him in 2016, 2020 and 2024. But he now has a 51% disapproval rating here, with voters citing the economy as a top issue. Only 45% of Kansans approve of his performance.Diesel — an important resource for Kansas’ agriculture-heavy economy — has nearly doubled in price here over the past year, going from $3.46 a gallon to $6.04. Fertilizer supplies are also being impacted by the Iran War.“If you’re going to plow — if you are going to put down fertilizer — all those prices are up,” Witmer said. “You’re getting hit two or three or four different ways if you’re in the ag economy right now.” All that from “a president that promised to bring prices down.”Hoping to shore up support in the Midwest, Trump is scheduled to hold a rally Sunday in Salina, Kansas. He will also appear that day in Dubuque, Iowa.Trump has told voters to pretend he’s on the ballot — but “I don’t know how successful this is going to be,” Witmer said. “We’ll know Tuesday.”Subscribe to our free newslettersOur weekly newsletter Closing Arguments offers the latest about ongoing trials, major litigation and rulings in courthouses around the U.S. and the world, while the monthly Under the Lights dishes the legal dirt from Hollywood, sports, Big Tech and the arts.Additional Reads