Poll: Donalds, Moody Hold Double-Digit Leads in Florida Races

Republican candidates Byron Donalds and Ashley Moody each hold an 11-point lead in Florida’s races for governor and U.S. Senate, according to a Stetson University poll released Tuesday. The survey from Stetson’s Center for Public Opinion Research (CPOR) found Donalds leading Democrat David Jolly 52 percent to 41 percent in the governor’s race among modeled likely voters. In the Senate contest, Moody holds the same 52-41 edge over Democrat Angie Nixon. Republicans also led the generic congressional ballot 50 percent to 41 percent. The poll put Moody’s net approval at plus-21, with 55 percent approving and 34 percent disapproving. Gov. Ron DeSantis stood at plus-14 (55-41), while President Donald Trump was narrowly above water at plus-1 (50-49). Trump has endorsed Donalds, the Naples congressman. His first-quarter haul topped $22 million, dwarfing the rest of the field. He has campaigned on continuing DeSantis’s record and would become Florida’s first black governor if he wins. Jolly is a former Republican congressman who left the party and registered as a Democrat in 2025 before launching his bid. He has named former Rep. Gwen Graham as his running mate and has centered his campaign on the state’s affordability crisis. Moody was appointed to the Senate in January 2025 to fill the seat vacated by Secretary of State Marco Rubio. The November contest will decide who serves the remainder of the term through 2028. Nixon, a Jacksonville state representative endorsed by Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT), upset retired Army Lt. Col. Alex Vindman in the Democratic primary but has badly trailed in fundraising. Florida Politics analyst Steve Vancore argued the survey rested on a shaky foundation, pointing to its reliance on an opt-in online panel rather than the state voter file. “The panel had too many Trump voters, by about 5 points, and demographic weighting couldn’t fix it,” Vancore wrote. He noted that adding party registration to the weighting trimmed Donalds’ lead to about ten points. The Stetson results track other recent surveys. A James Madison Institute poll released Oct. 9 showed Donalds up ten, and an NBC6/Telemundo/Mason-Dixon poll found Moody ahead 50-40 and Donalds leading 48-41.