Poll: Democrats lead in Congress by 8 points and edge Rubio, Vance for 2028

President Trump's overall job rating is holding steady at 40%, with women, Democrats and independents disapproving most strongly of his performance.(CN) — Democrats appear strong with just over two months before the midterm elections, leading Republicans by 8 percentage points on a generic ballot in Congressional races, a national poll released Thursday shows.Emerson College Polling also found Secretary of State Marco Rubio topping possible GOP presidential contenders but trailing several Democrats for the 2028 election.The poll surveyed 1,000 likely voters from Aug. 16-17, finding 51% would back a Democrat for Congress and 43% a Republican, with 6% undecided.President Donald Trump’s approval rating meanwhile hovered at 40%, with 56% disapproving — both numbers that have budged only 1 or 2 percentage points since April.Women disapproved of Trump by a wide 62% to 32% margin, while men were evenly split at 48% each; 66% of independents disapproved of the president, along with 92% of Democrats. Republicans remained solidly supportive with 86% approving.“President Trump’s job approval has been relatively steady in the past several months, with about two in five likely voters approving of the president, driven by consistent ratings among Republicans,” Emerson College Polling Executive Director Spencer Kimball said in a statement.Looking ahead to 2028, Marco Rubio outperformed JD Vance against leading Democratic contenders. Pete Buttigieg, transportation secretary under President Joe Biden, held a consistent 5-point lead over both Republicans. Other Democrats including California Governor Gavin Newsom and Georgia Senator Jon Ossoff saw their leads narrow against Rubio. Kamala Harris led Vance by 4 points but trailed Rubio by 5.“It looks like Marco Rubio performs better than JD Vance in these head-to-head matchups,” Kimball explained in a related video interview Wednesday. “If you take a look at the big picture as well, it looks like Newsom, Buttigieg and Ossoff are performing better than [Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez] or Harris. So it’ll be interesting to see if there’s a gender divide that starts to emerge in those general election matchups … But generally speaking, it looks like the Dems come out with a slight advantage heading into [2028].”The economy ranked as the top issue for 37% of voters, followed by threats to democracy and healthcare at 16% each and immigration at 13%. Opposition to U.S. military action in Iran has increased to 49%, up 2 points since March, while 36% of respondents offered ongoing support, a decrease of 4 points since March.Among its string of recent electoral victories in both local and statewide campaigns, nearly one in four voters — 23% — said they consider themselves supporters of the Democratic Socialists of America. Among Democrats, that figure rose closer to half — 46% — and higher among those under 50.Kimball noted support for the far left is “concentrated among younger members of the party” and although the survey indicated the group’s rising popularity, there is also evidence of a sharp fracture with traditionally moderate Democrats.On a separate question, 72% of voters said the actions of Luigi Mangione were unacceptable, while 17% called them acceptable. Kimball said Emerson originally asked the question in December 2024, weeks after the murder of UnitedHealth CEO Brian Thompson. Mangione pleaded guilty to stalking Thompson Aug. 14, admitting he posed as an investor and shot Thompson as the executive entered a conference.Emerson’s poll carries a credibility interval of plus or minus 3 percentage points.Subscribe to our free newslettersOur weekly newsletter Closing Arguments offers the latest about ongoing trials, major litigation and rulings in courthouses around the U.S. and the world, while the monthly Under the Lights dishes the legal dirt from Hollywood, sports, Big Tech and the arts.Additional Reads