Politics with Michelle Grattan: Kos Samaras & Richard Willingham on Victoria’s expected change of government

Victoria votes in just over two weeks, and although there’s still a long way to go, on present numbers the Liberals’ Jess Wilson, a first term MP, who leads a Coalition with the Nationals, is set to become premier. While the momentum is suggesting a majority government, there is still a question about whether the result could be a Coalition minority government that would have to rely on One Nation for confidence and supply. In our last podcast on the Victorian election, we spoke to the Premier Ben Carroll, Wilson and deputy One Nation leader, Colleen Harkin. Read more: Politics with Michelle Grattan: why Victoria’s unpredictable election matters nationally This time we feature two close observers of the contest, pollster Kos Samaras from the RedBridge consultancy group and the ABC’s Victorian state reporter Richard Willingham. In a desperate late bid, Labor switched leaders from Jacinta Allan to Carroll. Has it helped? Samaras is clear: Based on the numbers that we’re now seeing, and that some polls have already published and we’ll be publishing very soon, no. Objectively, Labor has structurally declined in terms of its presence in the polls and in terms of seat count; it’s probably worse off than it was under Jacinta Allan. It’s pretty clear to me that the biggest impact of that leadership change wasn’t necessarily giving them an opportunity to distance themselves from the past. It was actually ruining their campaign infrastructure. So a lot of individuals who were working around Jacinta, who were part of that campaign machine, are no longer present. And that’s a fairly big impact. It takes a long time to build up speed into a campaign. On One Nation’s fortunes in Victoria, Samaras highlights it is not as well-placed as elsewhere: At the beginning of this year in Victoria, for example, when we asked people why they were voting for One Nation, they said they didn’t think the Coalition could win, or was up to it. Both of those reservations have been removed off the table, and we can see the consequences of that writ large in the polling numbers. I would say New South Wales is going to be an absolute positive ballgame for One Nation. Victoria is a bit of an outlier. [There is] a deeply unpopular Labor government, a highly fragmented electorate, a Coalition that’s now deemed as the change agent. That is not the mix that we see in New South Wales. Willingham says Labor launching the royal commission into the “Big Build” during the election campaign could be the “death knell” for a Labor comeback: Already on just the first day it laid bare some really big, interesting questions about the influence of the Labor government, its relationship with the CFMEU and the extra cost of dealing with the CMFEU imposed on taxpayers. Ben Carroll has made calling this royal commission an absolute virtue. It’s the first major act he did since becoming premier. They’ve even put it in their campaign material. But this could be a very much own goal because it is going to drag [the] Labor government’s name through the mud and it’s going to expose a lot of allegations that have been made over the last four or five years about the Big Build and the processes that went to it. I think the fact that’s happening in the middle of the election campaign would probably just really cement in people’s minds that there were some serious issues going on under the Labor government and nothing was done about it. Willingham outlines what he sees as Wilson’s appeal: I think a lot of people [are] getting behind Jess Wilson, who may not even have been Liberal voters in the past, because they want a change. […] Jess Wilson is very presentable, says the right things, she feels warm and open and different. She’s a new Liberal, she’s not part of the old guard that had leadership change after leadership change over the last 12 years. I think she presents something new and people are in the mood for change. Willingham sees few federal factors playing into the state campaign – except for One Nation voters: A lot of voters […] have turned on the state government because of the state government’s performance. I don’t think it has anything to do with the prime minister or the federal Labor government’s performance. I think this is all about 12 years of the Andrews, Allan, Carroll governments. Samaras, meanwhile, says the recent interest rate rise has hurt Labor: The interest rate rise on Melbourne Cup day […] I think has been quite impactful. People argue that while the Victorian Labor premier is not responsible for the inflationary crisis, unfortunately for him and probably every leader is that whether you’re a premier, a prime minister, or even the RBA governor you are all, as far as voters concerned, decision-makers. So it’s probably why we’re seeing a decline in the Labor’s primary vote this week after the interest rate rise in Victoria. So I think there is a definitely federal impact be it on the margins, but significant enough.