Politics, not strategy, could mean more Israeli strikes on Iran

IT IS POSSIBLE he has only a few more weeks as Israel’s prime minister but Binyamin Netanyahu is not finished. He is gearing up for another series of major air strikes on Iran in the coming weeks, perhaps alongside America, even if he loses the election on October 27th. In fact, the prospect of such a loss may well be driving his calculations.FILE PHOTO: A woman poses in a face-in-the-hole picture cutout, blowing a kiss towards a depiction of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, leader of the Likud party, on the day of the party's primary to select candidates ahead of Israel's general election in October, in Tel Aviv, Israel, August 17, 2026. (REUTERS)On October 21st Mr Netanyahu told graduates of the Israel Defence Forces (IDF) officer school that Iran was, once again, developing nuclear weapons. There is, he insisted, “only one way to remove this threat once and for all. Overthrow the regime in Iran. And that is my directive to the IDF, the Mossad and the security branches.”In rhetoric alone this already marked an escalation. During Israel’s (and America’s) war with Iran earlier this year, his government’s official aim was to “create the conditions” for the regime’s fall. Today Israel’s security chiefs believe they cannot topple the regime from the outside. It is, they are clear, up to the Iranian people. But the signs are that Mr Netanyahu is going to try nonetheless.Israel’s intelligence officials have been ordered to prepare new lists of targets for strikes in Iran. Large numbers of Israeli aircraft have been flying close to Iran’s borders. Such manoeuvres, along with Mr Netanyahu’s bellicosity, could provoke Iran to strike first. For the prime minister, that would be ideal, providing him with a cast-iron excuse for war.Even if Mr Netanyahu loses the election on October 27th, as the polls predict he will, he is unlikely to be deterred. Indeed, the knowledge that he has only a short time left in office could give him further impetus to order an attack. Strikes on Iran would draw an Iranian retaliation, probably in the form of missiles descending on Israel’s cities. This could disrupt the attempts of his rivals to form a new coalition themselves and pressure some of the opposition leaders to join a unity government with him in the name of national emergency.Mr Netanyahu does not have free rein to act, however. Several obstacles have stood in his way until now. The most obdurant is Donald Trump: the Israeli prime minister has not felt able to attack without the go-ahead from the American president. Since announcing the first ceasefire with Iran on April 8th Mr Trump has rebuffed Mr Netanyahu’s entreaties to allow Israel to resume strikes. Even when America attacked Iran again, Israel was forced to remain on the sidelines.That may be changing. On October 18th Mr Trump endorsed Mr Netanyahu, calling him a “Great Warrior Prime Minister, and an even greater Partner for Peace in combatting the Islamic Republic of Iran.” He warned that if Iran did not “change their ways, rapidly” America would have to “soon finish the job.” If Israel is led by “anyone other than Bibi”, he continued, “America will have to do this work ourselves, and I am not inclined to do so.” A day later, Pete Hegseth, America’s secretary of war, visited an airbase in southern Israel where American warplanes are operating and met there in secret with Mr Netanyahu.But even if Mr Trump is now inclined to attack alongside Israel, America’s Gulf allies pose a second challenge. They are trying to dissuade him. They have been informed that the American administration is preparing another round of strikes after midterm elections on November 3rd. America has quietly withdrawn personnel from embassies and military bases in Saudi Arabia and other Gulf countries. People familiar with the talks between America and the Gulf states say the goal is a brief campaign, lasting several days, which focuses on economic targets in Iran.In February some Gulf states urged Mr Trump not to strike Iran. Others were more ambivalent, fearing they might alienate him and keen to confront Iran. There is no ambiguity this time. Iran has threatened another, more destructive round of attacks on Gulf infrastructure if the war resumes. And even the more hawkish leaders in the region fear the fighting would last far longer than Mr Trump’s Panglossian prediction of three days.They would prefer to stick with the status quo: America should continue to blockade Iran’s ports and escort oil tankers through the Strait of Hormuz. Saudi Arabia is particularly worried about the prospect of another escalation. The kingdom is already struggling to repel attacks from the Houthis, an Iran-backed militia in Yemen. They worry their air defences will be overwhelmed if Iran starts bombing them too.The third obstacle to Mr Netanyahu lies at home. When Israel went to war against Iran in June 2025 and February this year, the country and its security establishment were behind him. He would not enjoy the same level of support this time. Israel’s intelligence community does not accept that the Iranians have restarted their nuclear programme, nor that there is any imminent threat that currently justifies going to war. The generals do not trust Mr Netanyahu’s motives. The fact that Lieutenant-General Eyal Zamir, the head of the IDF, was left out of the meeting between Messrs Netanyahu and Hegseth has stoked these suspicions.The fourth stumbling block for Mr Netanyahu is the upcoming election. He may see it as a reason to rush to war but, if the polls are borne out, his days in office are numbered. According to The Economist ’s poll tracker, Yashar, a newish centre-right party led by Gadi Eisenkot, a former general, is likely to win 22 seats in the Knesset, Israel’s parliament. Likud, Mr Netanyahu’s party, is on track for 21 seats. His ruling coalition looks unlikely to win a majority. Mr Eisenkot could form a minority coalition, but only if his fellow opposition leaders agree to rely on the support of the Arab parties, which some of them have so far ruled out.Mr Netanyahu will stay on for some weeks or even months as a caretaker prime minister if his opponents are unable to form a new government quickly. But both security professionals and opposition party leaders may claim that Mr Netanyahu is dragging Israel into another war on false pretenses. Yair Golan, leader of the left-leaning Democrats and himself a deputy head of the IDF, says that Mr Netanyahu’s announcement at the officers’ school was “delusional” and means he is now a “danger to Israel”. He reckons that General Zamir’s ability to stand up to Mr Netanyahu is “critical”. Forming a new government quickly is essential, he continues: “There’s no time for political bargaining.”A war with Iran is not the only security issue at stake. The occupied West Bank, where attacks by Israeli settlers on Palestinian civilians, often with tacit support from the IDF, have been on the rise for months, is also on the brink of exploding. On October 23rd Palestinian gunmen ambushed an IDF checkpoint near Hebron, killing two soldiers. In response Mr Netanyahu ordered a complete lockdown of the West Bank and house-to-house searches and evictions of Palestinian homes.This was partly election bluster. The IDF is currently overstretched on multiple fronts, including in the buffer-zones it occupies in Gaza, Lebanon and Syria. It does not have the capacity for such a wide operation in the West Bank. So far it is operating in one neighbourhood in Hebron. But IDF officers have been warning for months that the settler attacks and land-grabs could provoke a wider conflagration. If the hard-right ministers representing the settlers fear they could soon be turfed out, the motivation to set the West Bank alight in the twilight period between governments will only grow.