Political straws in the wind: New polls

Media coverage of a slew of new polls has generally focused on who is ahead. Buried in these polls are other fascinating stories that shed light on the country’s mood.Is voting a duty or a choice? Sixty-five percent of registered voters in the new NPR/PBS News/Marist poll described voting as a duty, feeling that “they should vote in every election however they feel about the candidates and parties.” Thirty-four percent said voting was a choice for them, feeling “free to vote or not to vote in an election depending on how they feel about the candidates and parties.” Democrats and Republicans were in agreement that it was a duty.A fair and accurate election? In the NPR/PBS News/Marist poll, 75% of registered voters said they were confident that their “state and local government would run a fair and accurate election in November.” Two-thirds of Republicans gave this response. In the new NBC News poll, 72% of registered voters were confident their state could administer a fair election “where everyone who is eligible to vote has the opportunity to vote and the votes are counted accurately.”Minds made up? Voters make up their minds early. In 2022, 68% of voters told exit pollsters they made up their minds about the House vote before October, and another 19% said they did so in October. Just 6% made up their minds in the final days.In the new mid-September Economist/YouGov poll, 73% of registered voters said their mind was made up about their House vote, 11% said they would consider voting for a different candidate, and 12% said they were still undecided. Seventy-four percent of those in states with a Senate contest said their mind was made up, while 14% said they might change their minds.Thirty-eight percent in the NPR/PBS News/Marist poll said they had been contacted by a campaign, political party, or civic organization encouraging them to vote.Do voters like anyone? In the 2024 exit poll, only 2% of voters said they had a favorable opinion of both Donald Trump and Kamala Harris. Of the remainder, 44% had a favorable opinion only of Trump and 44% one of Harris. In 2016 once again, only 2% of voters had a favorable opinion of both Trump and Hillary Clinton. Of the remainder, 41% had a favorable opinion only of her, 38% of him.A look at the new polls shows no major national figure or party is viewed more positively than negatively. In the NBC News poll of registered voters, responses for Vice President JD Vance (48% negative to 37% positive), Trump (55% to 37%), the Republican Party (49% to 36%), and the Democratic Party (50% to 29%). In the new Economist/YouGov poll of registered voters, the picture was the same. For Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) (52% unfavorable, 27% favorable), House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-NY) (41% to 29%), Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) (43% to 28%), and Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-SD) (34% to 18%). In the poll, Sen. Jon Ossoff (D-GA) was viewed slightly more favorably than unfavorably, but you couldn’t say he was a national figure yet. Fifty-one percent didn’t know who he was.New blood? When the primary season ended this year, the Pew Research Center reported that a record 74 House lawmakers were leaving the body, some to run for another office and others to leave entirely. Were most sensing the sour mood about Congress and politics more generally?The NPR/PBS News/Marist poll found that 58% believed it was more important to vote for candidates with new ideas who will bring about change versus 38% who chose the response “candidates with experience who have a proven record.”TRUMP WAVES OFF REPUBLICAN BREAKS AS MIDTERM GROWS CLOSERPublic predictions: Pew also reported recently that trading volume on Kalshi and Polymarket doubled between May and July, mostly driven by sports betting. In the new Economist/YouGov poll, 39% of registered voters said they thought the Democrats would have a majority in the Senate after the November elections and 35% the Republicans. Seventy-three percent of Democrats said their party would take control and 72% of Republicans said their party would. Forty-five percent said Democrats would control the House, 31% the Republicans.Do we care? Eighty-seven percent in the NPR/PBS News/Marist poll said they cared a great deal or quite a bit about which party wins control of Congress in November’s elections.