PM's top security adviser says Europe faces hard winter to keep pressure on Putin

Jonathan Powell, the UK national security adviser, has said Europe must be ready to endure "real hardship" this winter if it is to keep up economic pressure on Russia.In rare public remarks, Powell told a conference in Kyiv that Europe's strategy of supporting Ukraine and imposing sanctions on Moscow was working.He said talk of Russian escalation was "not a problem" but a "sign of success" that pressure on Russian President Vladimir Putin was finally paying off.So he said now was not the time for European nations to take their "foot off the gas" and ease sanctions even though the continent faces severe energy shortages this winter.Powell also said the US and Europe should maintain contact with President Putin – despite describing the Russian leader as a "terrorist".Ukraine had "already won" the war because Putin would not be able to seize the whole country and "a free Ukraine in Europe" would be able to choose its own direction regardless of any territorial loss, he said.The Prime Minister's most senior security adviser, who rarely speaks in public, was in Ukraine's capital only last weekend for talks with Donald Trump's envoys after they visited Putin in Moscow.His remarks at the Yalta European Strategy forum - to an audience of Ukraine's top leadership and international supporters - provide an unusual and detailed insight into UK policy towards the war.His remarks were distinctly optimistic compared to others at the conference who had a more gloomy outlook. Round the clock Russian attacks on Ukraine's energy and other infrastructure is damaging the country's economy, weakening morale and raising fears about the coming winter where power shortages are expected.Oleksandr Kravchenko, Ukraine's minister of economy, told the conference Russian attacks this year were expected to cost $10bn in destroyed infrastructure and assets. With the blockade of Ukraine's sea ports curbing grain exports, he said Ukraine's GDP would contract by 1.5%.Europe is now preparing for winter amid a global energy crisis and with low stockpiles of gas, making sanctioned Russian supplies of liquid natural gas potentially more attractive to some EU countries.Sanctions have meant Europe has massively reduced its consumption of Russian gas - but not entirely and some countries are dragging their feet. The EU still gets 12% of its gas imports from Russia but plans a complete phase out by January. However, last week the European Court of Auditors said this plan was "faltering" amid gas shortages due to the Iran war.Speaking at the Yalta European Strategy forum, Powell said pressure on Putin was working "and that means we have to keep the pressure up".He said: "What we don't want to do at this stage is take our foot off the gas - and literally, gas could be the problem as we come into the winter, where the EU is going to have real problems of shortage, and we cannot turn that into an advantage for Putin. "It will require some real hardship and difficulties on our parts. But we will have to swallow that and we have to keep the economic, military, political and diplomatic support going for Ukraine."Powell said things in Ukraine did "feel a bit difficult at the moment". He pointed to Russian jet drone attacks, strikes on Ukrainian businesses, the lack of Patriot air defences against ballistic missiles, and the government's budget deficit.But he insisted "there are strong reasons for optimism". He said Trump – who has blown hot and cold over Ukraine – was "in a very different place". "He sees that Ukraine is doing better, and therefore he is not leaning in the direction of Putin in the way that he was previously. I think that's a really big asset."Powell said Russia was no longer claiming the US had agreed, at last year's Trump-Putin summit in Alaska, that Ukraine should give up territory and Nato membership."The so-called Anchorage compromise is firmly dead," Powell said. "That's gone. We can stop worrying about it. It's finished. I think that's a really important reason to be positive, because now we can look for serious ways of getting to a negotiated settlement, rather than waiting for the Ukrainian people to hand over territory the Russians have not been able to conquer."He also pointed to Ukrainian commanders' success in holding the front line, the milestone of Russia suffering 1.5 million casualties since 2022, Ukraine's strikes deep in Russian territory and the fact "Europe has remained solid".He said: "The strategy is to apply enough pressure to make [Putin] want to get into negotiation. And I think that the escalation we hear talk about is not a problem; it's a sign of success, because what's happening is the pressure that we are putting on Putin is finally paying off."Putin himself has given little sign he is feeling under pressure, telling journalists earlier this month: "I have no doubt that the enemy will crumble."Meanwhile Ukrainian authorities have begun evacuating some residents in Slovyansk and Kramatorsk, the biggest cities still under full Ukrainian control in the eastern Donbas region. The full capture of Donbas, made up of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions, is a key objective for Russia. Powell said it was "mug's game" to predict when the war might end but he said Europe had to be prepared to negotiate a settlement: "You have to be ready for one, and at some stage, where we least expect it, Putin will be ready to negotiate... It's all about getting him to be serious in that negotiation. And I think that strategy is beginning to work."Powell, who helped negotiate the Good Friday Agreement in Northern Ireland, said it was "very important to maintain contact with Putin and the Russians".He said: "What we don't want is miscalculation - that they don't understand where our red lines are. That's why I think it's important the CIA went to Moscow as well. I think we need to keep talking. I wrote a book called 'Talking to Terrorists'. I would certainly be in favour of talking to this terrorist as well - to try and maintain communication."The war was "not about territory" but about "the right of Ukraine to be independent", Powell added, and "to the extent that [Putin] gains another 10km of land or loses another 40km of land, this war is already won".He added: "That's the threat to him at home. There is a free, independent, and European Ukraine, and people in Russia are going to notice that."