Player’s View: Is the Decline of Starter Innings Bad For Baseball?

Dan Hamilton and Raymond Carlin III-Imagn Images It’s no secret that starting pitchers throw fewer innings than they once did. Not only have complete games become a rarity (there have only been 20 so far this season), it is all too common to see starters limited to just five frames. The proof is in the pudding. Going by 10-year increments, the average number of innings per start has dropped steadily, going from 6.53 in 1976 to 5.08 in the current campaign. Moreover, the number of outings with 100 or more pitches this year is just 510, a 560 pace. Turn the calendar back to 2016 and there were 1,737 such outings. A decade earlier, there were 2,095. How do current major league starters feel about the collective decline in workloads? Comprehensive polling isn’t practical, but I did query nine starters — some older, some younger — to get their thoughts on the subject. Here is what they had to say. ——— Merrill Kelly, Arizona Diamondbacks “There is always cause and effect for everything. From a big lens, not nearly as many people are throwing 200 innings. No one is really throwing 220-230 like they used to. It used to just be, ‘Hey, here’s the ball, it’s your game.’ That’s not happening too much anymore. “I definitely lean on the side of older school. I’d like to see starters go at least six or seven innings every time. My benchmark is six. If I go six innings I’ve done my job. If I go more than that, great. If I go less than that it leaves a little bit of a bitter taste in my mouth. Five is OK by today’s standards, but I’m not happy with myself if I’m not going longer than that. I also want to go 200 innings every year. That’s kind of my metric at the beginning of each season. “There are two sides of the coin. One of the reasons you don’t see that too much is that teams are really trying to monitor the health of their starting pitchers. For whatever reason, this 100-pitch number that has kind of come out of thin air — if you get anywhere near that number you’re coming of the game — has become a new benchmark. It used to be where if you were at 100 pitches after seven innings, or even eight, you would be coming back out. But somebody, somewhere, has decided that if you throw 100 pitches you’re more likely to get hurt. You Aren't a FanGraphs Member It looks like you aren't yet a FanGraphs Member (or aren't logged in). We aren't mad, just disappointed. We get it. You want to read this article. But before we let you get back to it, we'd like to point out a few of the good reasons why you should become a Member. 1. Ad Free viewing! We won't bug you with this ad, or any other. 2. Unlimited articles! Non-Members only get to read 10 free articles a month. Members never get cut off. 3. Dark mode and Classic mode! 4. Custom player page dashboards! Choose the player cards you want, in the order you want them. 5. 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We didn't want to overdo it. “Along with the implementation of that, there are the bullpens. If you look at our bullpen, Juan Morillo throws 100 [mph]. Justin Martinez throws 100. Jonathan Loáisiga throws 100. Brandyn Garcia is high 90s. So, the evolution of bullpens being as stuff dominant as they are now ties into why starters don’t go as long. Managers are more itchy to get to their bullpen pieces as quickly as they can, whereas in previous years — maybe 10-15 years ago — bullpens didn’t have as many high-leverage, really-good-stuff pitchers. Back then, starters went deeper because a lot of times they were the best option. Teams would trust their starters more, and that’s not the case anymore.” Max Scherzer, Toronto Blue Jays “There is a deemphasis on starters. The game has evolved to where starters are throwing fewer pitches. Starters are throwing fewer innings. Starters are getting hurt more. When you look at that as a totality, it’s not a good direction going forward. I would love nothing more than reestablishing the starting pitcher in today’s game, to consistently see guys throwing 100 pitches, and having seven innings be more the standard rather than an outlier. Dylan Cease going nine and 120 [on July 25 at Fenway Park] was a complete outlier. “I think it’s going to take rule changes in order to really get starters to throw deep into ballgames again. What would they be? That’s a bigger, longer conversation for another time — right now I’d rather stay ambiguous on that — but there would be a lot of benefits. For one, you’re going to get more offense. We know that when the starter faces a lineup a third time through, we get more offense. The hitters would love to see the reestablishing of the starter; they would get more ABs against just one pitcher. And if the starters are pitching more, the bullpen arms are throwing less, so you would be protecting bullpen arms. Those guys really churn. They go up and down a lot, and we would see less of that.” Logan Webb, San Francisco Giants “I don’t know that it’s in a bad place. Between the National League and American League there are 10 or 11 qualified starters with ERAs under 3.00, and one or two that are under 2.00. So, it’s not in a bad place; it’s just different than it used to be. Guys used to throw more innings, maybe at the expense of a couple runs here and there. Today’s game is built on run prevention, and there are guys throwing 100 [mph] with max effort every pitch. “I wish I could throw max effort, but I’m not like that. I have to be more like the older group. My max effort isn’t as hard, so I need to worry more about where I’m throwing the ball. I have to go more innings and try to get as many outs as I can for the team. If you look at my numbers, I’m probably not the best at run prevention compared to some guys. There are different ways to do it. There are other guys who throw a lot of innings, as well. Then you’ve got guys who are anomalies. Cristopher Sánchez throws a ton of innings and doesn’t give up runs. He throws sinkers at 97 from the left side. “Like I said, I don’t think it’s in a bad spot. I watch starting pitchers and some of these guys are really fun. They’re throwing hard and striking people out, but you also have guys who are going seven or eight innings. There is a mix of both, which I think is really good.” Payton Tolle, Boston Red Sox “I would probably consider myself more on the old-school side of it. I grew up thinking that a starter needs to go as long as possible every time. I had games in college where I went nine innings and threw 125 pitches. There were games where I didn’t go more than 100 pitches, and it was like, ‘Why am I out already?’ I suppose it was because I was getting hit. “That said, I think [limiting innings] is smart, especially with young guys. I think it can prolong careers. Overall, guys are throwing harder and for longer. You look at a guy like Miz [Jacob Misiorowski] and what he’s doing. How do you control a guy like him and make sure that he’s healthy? Here, if our starters can go six innings, we have a pretty good bullpen, We can put it in their hands and feel good about it. “You do see guys like Sandy Alcantara, in Miami, having more of a workload. He’s had some complete games in recent years. But with technology advancements and people thinking more about how the body works during a game… I mean, every time I go out there I want to throw a complete game. It’s a special thing that is being lost in today’s game.” Logan Gilbert, Seattle Mariners “I think it’s a better game when guys go deeper. I know there are a lot of reasons why things have changed, but as a starting pitcher, you kind of want ownership of the game. You want to go as deep as you can and not just turn it over to someone else halfway through. Of course, nowadays bullpen guys are so good, and teams don’t want the pitcher to see [hitters] three times. They want the bullpen guy to come in and match up. I get all that, but at the same time, I think it’s a better show, a better atmosphere, if the starting pitcher is going deep. I’m biased when saying that, but it’s how I see it. “I understand that situationally there are reasons you don’t want [the starter to go through the order a third time], but there is also a lot of feel involved in pitching. There are things you have to read during the game that can determine if the starting pitcher should keep going. “Having as many pitches as possible can help you go deeper into games. You can pitch batters in different ways, different times through. The game has turned a little bit toward throw your best pitches often as you can, but if you show a hitter that best pitch in three different at-bats, eventually they’re going to make an adjustment. That’s a reason you see a lot of guys trying to add more pitches. You can have a deeper arsenal and give different looks as you go on.” Gage Jump, Athletics “I feel like some orgs want the guys who can go five innings, have really good stuff, and strike out a lot of people. That’s really cool, but I look at a guy like Dylan Cease who is going deep in games and also getting a bunch of whiffs [and] also striking people out. He’s very efficient. That’s kind of the blueprint of what I want be: a guy that gives you length, but is competing in the zone with good stuff. “I don’t know many starters that don’t want to go deep in games. I mean, if I could go eight innings every time, that would be awesome. But right now, those games where the other team’s offense is putting up good at-bats and you have to grind through that, really battle to make it through six, I’m fine with that. It’s the shorter stints where I’m throwing 90 pitches and only getting to the fifth inning — there have been a bunch of stressful pitches — that are frustrating. I’m hurting our bullpen. It’s that domino effect. Being a young guy, I look at the veteran guys that had been going those seven, eight, even nine innings. That’s always been my goal. I mean, one of my goals has been to throw a complete game at this level. It’s really difficult, but I think when you’re able to do that, you are really in tune with yourself as a pitcher. Sometimes when you step on the mound your body feels good, but sometimes your body feels bad and your stuff isn’t as good. Being able to persevere through that and still go seven or eight innings is a testament to pitching. “Some of those numbers [complete games in earlier eras] are insane. I’ll be scrolling through social media, or wherever, and see that someone has pitched a complete game. When that happens, it really piques my interest. I’ll always go watch that game afterward, no matter who it is, so that I can learn from it. Complete games are a testament to pitch-ability and are awesome to watch.” Chase Burns, Cincinnati Reds “You definitely hear about it. I guess you see staring pitchers going fewer innings in games just because the game is getting harder. The game is developing and adapting. Hitting is harder, but so is pitching, especially with ABS. Hitters are digging into technology and information and getting better. Guys are throwing harder, but they’re also throwing a lot more pitches in an inning. So, you do see a little bit of a decline in the starting pitcher. Then again, Chris Sale threw a complete game [on August 27 versus the Dodgers]. There is still hope for starting pitchers. “My body has gotten accustomed to throwing like I do. To be a power pitcher and be able to throw 100 pitches, ripping everything hard… but it goes both ways. There are also guys who throw 92 [mph] — that’s their max — and they’re ripping it as hard as they can. It’s just how you body adapts and what your body wants to do.” Shane Bieber, Toronto Blue Jays “I love it [when starters throw a lot of innings]. I think it’s super impressive. It’s the the no. 1 sign of a frontline starter. Is the game better off [when more starters are going deep in games]? Starting pitching would be better off. I think everything over last 5-10 years — baseball and the commissioners office, just the way the game is going — they’ve gone away from prioritizing starters. Which is fine. They prioritize offense over everything else, and I understand that’s kind of what the fans want. But for the health of the game… yeah. Starters going deep into ballgames never hurts.” Matthew Boyd, Chicago Cubs “How did Jim Leyland say it? You’re only as good as today’s starting pitcher. Something like that. Starting pitchers can dictate a game. I believe that the value of navigating through a lineup three or four times with efficiency will always have a place in the game. Some would argue that once the playoffs come around it’s less valuable, but I think it’s even more valuable in the playoffs. It’s got value in the regular season and it’s got value in the postseason. You can never replace that. “We’ve gotten to this point where… obviously, everybody wants certainty. When you talk about outcomes that are more certain than others, a strikeout is always going to be more certain than a ball that’s hit on the ground and is caught by someone, thrown, and caught by someone else. Front offices want to choose the thing that has more certainty, but that being said, efficiency — I’m biased in that sense — is always going to have value. Getting outs and going deeper in games has paramount value. To me, it’s the gold standard. “The part that makes it tricky — why we’re not seeing it happening more frequently — is because there are things that aren’t quantifiable. Strikeouts are quantifiable, but they’re not necessarily efficient. Navigating a lineup multiple times through, setting up pitches… you can’t quantify things like that in a model, at least not easily. That’s why you see the decline of [pitcher innings].”